Kerajaan Pn Pasca Krisis Convid 19

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Tiada siapa boleh membuat unjuran yang pasti bila krisis wabak ini akan berakhir sepenuhnya dan sejauh mana kesannya terhadap kehidupan manusia. Secara umumnya, para penganalisis meramalkan kesan yang 'sangat buruk' terhadap ekonomi dunia walaupun ianya dikatakan bersifat 'sementara'.

Perubahan kerajaan di negara kita berlaku betul-betul diambang krisis wabak menyerang dengan skala yang besar. Tiada siapa yang tahu ketika Langkah Sheraton diambil bahawa dunia akan menjadi seperti ini sekarang. Saya juga percaya, para pemuka Langkah Sheraton pastinya akan membatalkan hasrat mereka sekiranya mereka tahu apa yang bakal mereka hadapi.

Langkah Sheraton bukan diambil demi untuk kepentingan negara. Tidak sudah barang pasti. Langkah Sheraton diambil bagi memenuhi hasrat politik yang pelbagai dari kelompok yang pelbagai dan mempunyai pelbagai kepentingan kelompok masing. Tiada satupun yang melakukannya semata-mata untuk kepentingan negara dan rakyat.

Satu kelompok terlibat semata-mata kerana permusuhan politik peribadi antara dua tokoh di dalam PKR. Satu kelompok terlibat kerana tekanan politik akibat tewas teruk dalam beberapa PRK. Satu pihak terlibat kerana diberi ruang oleh dua kelompok di atas. Secara umumnya, dua punca utama yang menyatukan hasrat mereka kesemuanya; menghalang Anwar dan menyingkirkan DAP dari kerajaan. Mereka bekerjasama semata-mata atas dasar berkongsi kebencian, bukannya berkongsi matlamat dan harapan. Ini adalah contoh klasik 'tidur sebantal mimpi lain-lain'.

Tidak ada sebarang petunjuk yang konkrit bahawa kolisi kerajaan ini boleh bertahan lama. Walaupun media kerajaan dilihat berjaya menonjolkan populariti Muhyidin sebagai pemimpin yang disenangi rakyat, ia tidak cukup untuk menunjangi kestabilan sebuah kerajaan. Apatah lagi sebuah kerajaan yang mana keabsahannya masih menjadi di selubungi pelbagai persoalan yang tidak terjawab.

Sampai hari ini, Muhyiddin tidak dapat memberi jumlah yang pasti berkenaan sokongan yang diterimanya di parlimen. Ini dikuatkan lagi dengan tindakannya 'membeli' sokongan dengan melantik ahli-ahli parlimen memegang pelbagai jawatan yang 'lucrative'.

Perikatan Nasional bukanlah suatu yang ideal buat Umno dan PAS. Penglibatan Muafakat Nasional di dalam PN adalah bersifat sementara. Pilihan terbaik mereka ialah PRU-15 diadakan lebih awal. Mereka dikatakan berupaya menang besar disekiranya PRU-15 diadakan awal ketika populariti mereka sedang memuncak. Tetapi mendesak PRU dibuat sekarang ketika krisis wabak melanda bukanlah suatu yang bijak.

Buat masa ini mereka terpaksalah terus berada dalam kerajaan yang bukan mereka kuasai. Ini telah menimbulkan pelbagai keresahan di kalangan mereka. Belum sampai dua bulan PN mentadbir sudah mula timbul bibit-bibit perpecahan. Ibarat sekelompok manusia yang dipaksa tidur di dalam kelambu yang panas dan penuh nyamuk. Pasti sukar untuk tidur dengan lena. Lagi lama krisis ini berlaku, semakin mereka menjadi resah. Sebaik sahaja krisis berlalu, pasti berebut-rebut mahu keluar dari kelambu itu.

Parti Bersatu sedang melalui persimpangan yang menuju pelbagai kemungkinan. Parti itu berkemungkinan mengambil posisi PAS pada PRU-14 yang lepas, iaitu bertanding secara bersendirian tanpa kolisi. Saya fikir tidak sukar menjangka akibatnya kalau itu berlaku. Pilihan yang lain ialah membubarkan Bersatu dan menyertai semula Umno secara en-bloc, sepertimana yang berlaku kepada pari Semangat46 sebelum ini.

Malah ada juga kemungkinan Umno, PAS, dan Bersatu akan bercantum membentuk satu Parti Melayu bagi menghadapi PRU yang akan datang. Tiada yang mustahil. Apa perlu lagi ada pelbagai parti politik Melayu dalam blok politik yang sama? Kenapa tidak bergabung saja? Sukar untuk ketiga-tiga parti ini menjawab 'TIDAK' kepada persoalan ini pada waktu itu nanti. Bak kata Timbalan Presiden PAS suatu ketika dulu, "...daripada bergabung dengan Umno, baik bubarkan sahaja PAS". Ya, memang itu pun yang sebetulnya.

Kalau itu berlaku, PAS akan hilang dari peta politik negara dan Bersatu akan menjadi sebuah parti politik yang paling pendek hayatnya dalam sejarah politik negara. Umno pula berjaya memadamkan sejarah buruk parti itu sebagai sebuah parti kleptokrat yang pernah ditolak secara tolak oleh rakyat di dalam PRU.

Sebagai kesimpulan, ada pelbagai kemungkinan yang boleh berlaku terhadap Perikatan Nasional. Tetapi mengekalkan keadaan seperti sekarang sebagai sebuah kolisi pemerintah yang beroperasi tanpa mandat, tanpa manifesto, tanpa hasrat bersama, tanpa platform politik bersama, dan tanpa dasar atau falsafah politik yang sama adalah suatu yang tidak terfikir oleh akal yang waras. - Jamzuri Ardani

Usaha untuk timbulkan keraguan kepada Anwar...
Berbagai cara pihak musuh PH untuk menimbulkan keraguan kepada Anwar bagi melindungi kebebalan kabinet kerajaan pintu belakang sekarang.

1. Tuduhan kononnya Anwar yang mahu sangat untuk bertemu PM. Hakikatnya, PM yang memanggil Anwar selaku Pengerusi PH untuk bertemu dengannya bagi membincangkan dua perkara penting iaitu COV19 dan Persidangan Parlimen.

2. Anwar dituduh menemui PM tanpa memaklumkan kepada pimpinan PH yang lain. Anwar telah jelaskan bahawa pertemuan itu diketahui oleh pimpinan PH bahkan selepas pertemuan tersebut Majlis Presiden PH telah bermesyuarat dan dimaklumkan butir-butir perbincangan kedua mereka. Tiada rahsia seperti pertemuan Azmin dengan beberapa MP dari Umno di rumahnya sebelum "langkah Sheraton".

3. Tuduhan kononnya pertemuan Anwar dengan PM itu adalah 'rundingan sulit' di antara mereka untuk membawa PH ke dalam kerajaan pintu belakang sekarang tanpa Dap. Hakikatnya, usaha ini telah berjalan sewaktu kemelut berlaku sebelum kerajaan pintu belakang menduduki Putrajaya lagi. Anwar bahkan Tun M sendiri waktu itu ditawarkan untuk bersama puak mereka asalkan tinggalkan Dap. Alhamdulillah, maruah Anwar terpelihara dari kerja jijik dan khianat itu. Jika Anwar mahu khianat, beliau boleh lakukan waktu itu lagi dan mungkin beliau mendapat kedudukan yang tinggi di dalam kerajaan tanpa mandat rakyat ini. Anwar bukan seperti Muhyidin atau Azmin, jauh sekali Zahid atau Hadi.

Jelas sekali, usaha jahat mereka itu hanyalah untuk melindungi kebobrokan kerajaan pintu belakang yang kini para menterinya setiap hari akan mementaskan lawak jenakanya kepada rakyat. - Wfauzdin Ns


Salah tetap salah tapi jgn lupakan VVVIP yg langgar PKP tu...

Muhyiddin’s post-Covid-19 dilemma...
Two months after the Sheraton political coup, Muhyiddin Yassin’s government is still searching for a way forward. Faced with the world’s worst crisis in a century, he has to win public trust, even to merely justify the existence of his unelected government.

To a certain extent, the current movement control order (MCO) to curb the spread of Covid-19 outbreak has afforded Muhyiddin some breathing space. But he knows the lockdown won’t last forever.

As Parliament is now set to sit on 18th May, the political situation will gain more attention. Despite being the main beneficiary of the political coup that propelled him to the premiership, he is not exactly the most hated figure in Malaysia.  

However, the rest of the cabinet is either forgotten, unknown, laughed at, or even hated so much.International Trade and Industry Minister Azmin Ali is now universally mocked for his role in the political coup, and right now disliked for his mishandling of the reopening of industries in the third phase of MCO.

Health Minister Adham Baba is the now the de facto laughing stock of the nation and a major liability to Muhyiddin’s administration. For each of his media appearance, the government loses three days to public ridicule.

Muhyiddin’s conundrum

Herein lies Muhyiddin’s challenge. He has to live with each and every one in his hastily-cobbled together coup coalition. He can’t sack anyone, yet everyone in his Cabinet can easily bully him. A recent example is UMNO demanding spoils for its Sabah chapter, especially to reward the state chairman Bung Mokhtar Radin who is now being charged for corruption.

Muhyiddin is governing with either 113 or 114 seats out of 222 Parliamentary seats. Although it’s a razor thin majority, and putting aside technical explanation of our law, let’s just say that it’s not easy for Parliament to approve a no-confidence vote against the Prime Minister.

But that doesn’t mean Muhyiddin can sleep soundly at night. Whether governing with 113-114 seats, the proof is not in a “no confidence vote”. It is in each of the Bills presented to the Parliament. Each Bill would be an opportunity to prove if the government still commands the majority.

Let’s take Johor as an example. The new UMNO-led state government claims to have 29 seats while Pakatan Harapan has 27 seats. The 29 includes the state assemblyman for Bukit Gambir who is Muhyiddin himself. If he can’t or doesn’t attend the assembly, the state government on that day will have 28 votes against Harapan’s 27 votes.

On voting day for the Budget, for example, if two or three assemblymen from the state government side were not happy with the Mentri Besar and decided to go on a medical leave while Pakatan Harapan had the full attendance, the government could lose its Budget.

Our Parliament works the same way. Hence, we can see how UMNO is bullying Muhyiddin when the Prime Minister is not even able to impose any disciplinary actions against his ministers who flout the laws during MCO.

Muhyiddin’s fledgling coalition

1. Bersatu

Bersatu is formed by four groups.  

First, the group that joined when Bersatu was formed in 2016, such as Special Functions Minister Mohd Redzuan Yusof who has no real functions in Muhyiddin’s government, Melaka State Exco Rafiq Naizamohideen whose dream to become the Chief Minister was quashed by his new coalition partners, and former Johor Mentri Besar Sahruddin Jamal who lost everything despite being a Muhyiddin loyalist.

This group braved the UMNO attacks from 2016 till 2018, suffered personally and financially, won the mandate from the public, and now lost out and forgotten. 

Second, the Mahathir supporters. No one knows how many supporters the former Prime Minister exactly has until the party election is held. The fact that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad still has supporters and sympathisers within Bersatu are sufficient to rattle Muhyiddin.

Third, the group that joined Bersatu after 2018 led by Home Minister Hamzah Zainuddin with some former UMNO MPs. They are handsomely rewarded in Muhyiddin’s cabinet.

Fourth, the group that benefitted the most from ministerial rewards, i.e. Azmin Ali’s clique who left Parti Keadilan Rakyat for Bersatu to bring forth the Sheraton move. Everyone gets a ministerial appointment.

2. UMNO

UMNO is not a single entity. Since the general election in 2018, no leader has full control over the party, which is split into multiple groups. The loudest personality is former Prime Minister Najib Razak. He has the highest name recognition and support among hardcore UMNO supporters but he is toxic to middle ground Malay voters.

Yet, Najib is a survivor. Despite the heavy corruption charges against him, he is still very free to continue his role as chief troll, going after Pakatan Harapan 70% of his time while devoting the other 30% against the Muhyiddin government. Guided by Najib’s thinking, UMNO has created a niche for itself: UMNO is together with PAS in Muafakat Nasional, only supporting Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional until the coming general election.

Another group is led by UMNO President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi who doesn’t really have full control of the party. He is mostly with Najib but there were instances when they broke ranks, especially in early weeks of February 2020.

Hishammuddin Hussein, Hamzah Zainuddin and Azmin Ali are the original coup plotters and have been working tightly together across parties for some time since early 2019, if not earlier. Their common aim was and still is to deny Anwar Ibrahim the premiership. Hishammuddin claims to control between 17 and 22 UMNO MPs.

There are also Negri Sembilan’s Mohamad Hasan and Khairy Jamaluddin, Johor’s Khaled Nordin and other characters which are not exactly fitting into the above three groups.  

3. PAS

PAS as a political party is solid and intact as group but severely lacks talents for national politics. At the moment, PAS leaders are just to enjoy the spoils of office such as being appointed to GLC posts while waiting for the next general election to be called. PAS’ objectives are to dominate Kelantan and Terengganu, and to make advances in Kedah and Perlis.

4. Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS)

GPS controls Sarawak and has no loyalty to anyone. The leaders are more inclined to work with former Barisan Nasional leaders whom they know well than to make friends with Pakatan Harapan leaders, some of whom such as DAP, compete with them in Sarawak politics.

Muhyiddin’s challenge

Muhyiddin’s ruling coalition consists of four groups in Bersatu, four groups in UMNO, GPS and PAS, altogether 10 factions with varying interests, at certain times collaborative and at other times competitive. For the Prime Minister, when Covid-19 pandemic slows down, he has to worry about Malaysia’s post-MCO era.

Whether Muhyiddin could pull through by gaining control of his competitive coalition partners, it is a matter of time when the economic needs of the people and the nation will reveal the harsh realities, sooner rather than later. Can Muhyiddin’s fledgling ruling coalition stay together? I have my doubts. - Liew Chin Tong


WTI crude price dropped into negative territory, hitting an all time historic low of $USD-37. An insane negative 37 dollars. The insanity is driven by a meltdown of May contracts facing severe storage shortage.

So everyone is now looking at the June futures trade price for WTI crude which is currently hovering around USD20. Brent crude price, which is a better global price indicator, is currently holding at USD25. Malaysia Tapis oil price is currently at USD27.

What does it mean to Malaysia, an oil and gas producer and exporter?

Clearly, fiscal problems ahead. The norm average price in the past decade has been around USD55 per barrel. For budget 2020 we used USD62 per barrel. I have written and spoken about this before. The oil and gas sector contributes two major source of revenue for the federal government.

One source of revenue is PITA, a petroleum income tax imposed on all oil companies. PITA contributes on average about RM17 billion a year. At current prices, profitability of oil and gas companies are now being questioned.

The second major income, comes from Petronas profits which is normally around RM50 billion a year. Note that not all Petronas profits are declared as dividends to government. I am assuming Petronas will have to declare most if not full dividend in view of the Covid-19 crisis.

So what we have is about RM67 billion of government revenue under threat from lower oil prices. As an example, if we take a conservative 30% discount on both revenue streams for the entire financial year, we will be looking at RM20 billion shortfall in revenues.

A complete recalibration/revamp of the federal budget will need to be debated and sorted in Parliament. The sooner the better. It doesn't help that Petronas only reports to the prime minister, not even to Parliament.

Hence, I reiterate my position that Parliament must convene as soon as possible to debate policies and budget. The first debate day proposed by this government on the 13th of July is not acceptable.

And we have not even touched on the pressures facing personal income tax and corporate income tax yet. - Wong Chen




cheers.

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