Analysts Warn Harapan S Seat Push May Strain Sabah Unity Bloc

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Sabah’s unity coalition is heading into the state election weighed down by uncertainty and internal friction, with analysts warning that Pakatan Harapan’s overreach in seat negotiations could strain its partnership with Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).
Political analyst Lee Kuok Tiung of Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) said Harapan's posture risks backfiring if its performance at the polls fails to match its ambitions.
“PKR is asking for way too many seats. But just how many can they win?
“If their performance is not good, it could leave a bad impression on those fighting alongside them in the state election,” he told Malaysiakini.
Lee said Harapan components’ rush to claim seats and make early announcements also reflects weak coordination within the coalition.
“DAP and United Progressive People of Kinabalu Organisation (Upko) should consider using the GRS logo if they take into account the growing local party sentiment,” he said, noting that voters increasingly identify with home-grown parties rather than national brands.
The warning came amid renewed debate over Sabah’s 40 percent revenue entitlement, which has reignited Sabahans’ demands for fairness and autonomy.
The High Court ruling on Oct 17, ordered both the Sabah and federal governments to resolve the entitlement issue within 180 days, covering the 48 years since the last review, unless the federal government files an appeal by Nov 16.
Analysts said that if Putrajaya appeals, this would test the credibility of GRS and its federal partners, deepening local scepticism toward the coalition government.
GRS is understood to have finalised its internal formula to contest 52 of the 73 state seats, leaving 20 for Harapan, though the arrangement has yet to be formally endorsed.
Despite that, several partners have already moved ahead.
Upko has confirmed it will contest under its own logo, while DAP is still considering the option, leaving PKR and Amanah as the only active Harapan components.
On Monday, Amanah became the first to act, naming Julpikar Ab Mijan as its candidate for Sulabayan under the Semporna parliamentary constituency, a Warisan stronghold. The incumbent is Warisan’s Jaujan Sambakong.
PKR is expected to unveil its candidates on Nov 9, the same as Umno.
Clashing stakes
On the ground, several constituencies already show overlapping claims.
In Tanjung Aru, DAP’s Phoong Jin Zhe, Upko’s Dennison R Indang and Umno’s Reduan Aklee have been linked to the same seat, setting up a potential clash with Warisan incumbent Junz Wong.
DAP’s Phoong Jin ZheIn Darau, Upko’s Fardy Bungga and GRS secretary-general Razali Razi are preparing parallel campaigns.
In Bandau, PKR’s Zaidi Jatil is expected to face GRS’ Redonah Bahanda, who has also drawn interest from Verdon Bahanda’s independent Blackwave movement.
The same in Sindumin, former Sipitang MP Hafez Yamani Musa is tipped to represent PKR against GRS’ Yusof Yacob, who is the incumbent.
Incumbent Sindumin rep Yusof YacobLee said these overlaps underline the alliance’s lack of cohesion.
“Harapan is already over-asking in the negotiations, and this will deepen perceptions that Sabah’s unity bloc is serving national politics rather than Sabah’s interests,” he added.
Fragile partnership, possible sabotage
Political strategist Tony Paridi said the pattern suggests a fragile alliance drifting towards friendly contests, which could, however, lead to sabotage within GRS and Harapan - a situation that would ultimately favour their political rivals.
“With the current development heading to nomination day, it gives a signal that the seat negotiations remain unresolved and will inevitably lead to friendly contests," he added.
Paridi predicted that PKR and Upko might deliberately do this to gain more seats for themselves.
“To other political rivals such as Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (Star), Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM) and Warisan, they could attract voters to swing their loyalty from the coalition (GRS-Harapan or Harapan-BN) because of eroding public trust and reinforcing the image that coalition politics is driven more by positions than principles,” he said.
He warned that internal sabotage within the coalition could emerge as factions jostle for influence, risking disunity and the loss of key seats. - Mkini

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