Three Scenarios For The 15th General Election
MP SPEAKS | One of the chief talking points in Malaysia today is when the 15th general election will be held - from as soon as in a month’s time to sometime next year.
If Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob dissolves Parliament after the finance minister has tabled Budget 2023 on Oct 7, he would be following the example of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad in dissolving Parliament in the midst of the parliamentary debate on Budget 2000.
It happened on Nov 10, 1999, which was followed by the 10th general election on Nov 29, 1999.
This would be a bad example of the dissolution of Parliament to follow, and I urge Ismail Sabri not to follow this bad example of the past to build a new Malaysian future.
There are many bad examples in nation-building in the past 65 years which should not be emulated, and this is one of them.
Prime Minister Ismail Sabri YaakobIt is a misuse of prime ministerial power to dissolve Parliament in the midstream of debate on the annual budget.
If Ismail Sabri asks the Yang di Pertuan Agong to dissolve Parliament after Oct 7, the monarch should advise the prime minister to let Parliament debate and pass Budget 2023 first, unless a no-confidence motion against the prime minister is adopted by the Dewan Rakyat.
I foresee three possible scenarios for the general election.
The first scenario is a big win for Umno, but who will be the 10th prime minister - Ismail Sabri or party president, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi?
Or could it be his deputy Mohamad Hassan or the two “dark horses” – Khairy Jamaluddin and Hishammuddin Hussein?
And after some time, will Najib Abdul Razak return as the 11th prime minister?
If the 15th general election resulted in a big win for Umno, it is possible that Najib may be freed from jail, and all the pending corruption cases against him and other Umno leaders may be dropped.
Former prime minister Najib Abdul RazakBut most important of all, it may result in ending the rule of law and the independence of our judiciary, and Malaysia would be well on its way to becoming a kleptocracy, kakistocracy, a rogue and failed state.
The second scenario will be a big win for Pakatan Harapan with Anwar Ibrahim as the 10th prime minister, with the work on reforming our institutions and the nation resuming after the Harapan government was toppled via the Sheraton Move in February 2020.
A third scenario is no coalition wins sufficient numbers of MPs to be able to form a government, let alone command a two-thirds parliamentary majority.
This will take Malaysia on an unprecedented political experience.
Only time will only tell which one scenario will eventuate from the 15th general election, whether held this year or next year.
In a very real sense, the polls will be a “life-and-death” struggle for Umno, the rule of law and Malaysia’s future. - Mkini
LIM KIT SIANG is the Iskandar Puteri MP.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.
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