Safeguarding Asean Peace Amid Superpower Rivalry

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THE recent ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, brokered by Malaysia in its role as ASEAN Chair, is a critical step in regional peace-building.

The deal, which took effect at midnight on July 28, 2025, was announced following high-level talks in Putrajaya, where Malaysia brought both parties together for urgent dialogue.
This development comes as a much-needed de-escalation after renewed clashes along the Thai-Cambodian border, which have long been a flashpoint for nationalist tension and military posturing.
Malaysia’s leadership in the process has once again demonstrated its unique role in Southeast Asia as a credible mediator, committed to regional stability and peaceful dialogue.
This role is not new as Malaysia has previously played a significant part in resolving long-standing internal conflicts in both southern Thailand and Mindanao in the Philippines.
In southern Thailand, where ethnic Malay-Muslim insurgents have waged a low-intensity rebellion in the Patani region since the early 2000s, Malaysia has facilitated peace talks between insurgent groups such as the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) and the Thai government.
While these talks have not yet produced a final resolution, they have created channels of communication and periods of reduced violence.
Malaysia’s involvement is seen as both culturally and geographically appropriate, given its shared ethnic and religious ties with the southern Thai provinces.
The Malaysian government has used this proximity to build trust with insurgent leaders while maintaining diplomatic relations with the Thai state.
This balancing act has helped prevent further regionalisation of the conflict and reflects a model of conflict management that is pragmatic and sensitive to local dynamics.

Similarly, in Mindanao, Malaysia played a pivotal role in the peace process between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).
Acting as a neutral facilitator, Malaysia hosted peace talks that led to the signing of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro in 2014, ending decades of armed struggle.
(Image: Al Jazeera)Malaysia also led the International Monitoring Team (IMT) that ensured compliance with the ceasefire and supported confidence-building between the parties.
This initiative remains one of the most successful examples of ASEAN-led mediation, offering a model of how persistent diplomacy, regional ownership, and non-coercive facilitation can bring sustainable results.

Malaysia’s role in these peace processes gives it not only experience but also moral authority in mediating the current Thailand-Cambodia standoff.
The ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, while bilateral in nature, has broader regional implications. It comes at a time when the Indo-Pacific is under increasing strain due to the strategic rivalry between the United States (US) and China.
Their trade war and military posturing, especially in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, have heightened geopolitical tension across Southeast Asia. ASEAN, situated at the crossroads of these global currents, faces the real risk of its internal conflicts becoming arenas for proxy competition.
Localised disputes like the one between Thailand and Cambodia can quickly draw in external powers, either through military cooperation, economic leverage, or political influence.
This is why the question of whether the US and China should be included, at least as observers in ceasefire verification or implementation mechanisms is both relevant and delicate.
On the one hand, ASEAN has always prioritised regional solutions to regional problems, emphasising non-interference and consensus.
However, as seen during the Vietnam War and throughout the Cold War, Southeast Asian conflicts can easily be co-opted by larger global struggles.
Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam all experienced devastating consequences when superpowers used their territory for ideological and strategic contests.
The lesson for today’s ASEAN is clear: excluding great powers entirely may not insulate the region; instead, it may create a vacuum that invites unilateral action or covert influence.

Therefore, ASEAN should consider limited, clearly defined roles for external powers in regional peace processes.
Their inclusion such as in observer or technical advisory capacities, can serve as a transparency mechanism that reassures all parties and limits behind-the-scenes manoeuvring.
However, the process must remain under ASEAN’s leadership to preserve regional autonomy. Malaysia, as Chair, must lead in crafting a ceasefire verification and monitoring system that includes input from ASEAN dialogue partners without ceding control. This balance is critical to ensuring that peace efforts are not hijacked by competing agendas.
Malaysia’s diplomatic credibility, built over years of involvement in Mindanao and southern Thailand, gives it a strategic advantage in guiding ASEAN through this challenge.
(Image: Facebook/Anwar Ibrahim)Its current stewardship of the Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire provides a chance to set a precedent: regional conflict resolution must not only address immediate violence but also anticipate the strategic consequences of great power rivalry.
The ceasefire monitoring mission, coordinated by Malaysia, should serve not only to ensure compliance but also to reaffirm ASEAN’s role as a stabilising force in the Indo-Pacific.

Ultimately, the Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire should be seen as more than a bilateral agreement as it is a test of ASEAN’s ability to safeguard its region from becoming a pawn in a global contest.
By learning from its own successes in Mindanao and southern Thailand, and by navigating the pressures of US-China competition with strategic foresight, ASEAN can protect its vision of a peaceful, independent Southeast Asia.
Malaysia, with its proven mediation track record, must ensure that this vision does not falter under the weight of global tensions. 
R. Paneir Selvam is the principal consultant of Arunachala Research & Consultancy Sdn Bhd, a think tank specialising in strategic national and geopolitical matters.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of  MMKtT.
- Focus Malaysia.

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