If Grs Wins Sabah Polls It Would Be With A Razor Thin Majority

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AS I have been following the Sabah state election closely, I’m reminded of something I said before GE15 in 2022—that Malaysia would end up with a hung parliament. It was an unpopular prediction at that time, but it turned out to be true. And today, I see the same pattern of fragmentation appearing again in Sabah.
For the upcoming Sabah state election on Nov 29, the political landscape is unlike anything we’ve seen before. The Election Commission has confirmed 596 candidates from 24 political parties, all fighting for just 73 state seats. This is the largest and most crowded field in Sabah’s political history.
A few numbers immediately stand out:
74 independent candidates — a huge bloc that could easily swing results in dozens of seats.Warisan (73), Parti Impian Sabah (72), GRS (55), STAR (46), Barisan Nasional (45), Perikatan Nasional(42), KDM (40), UPKO (25), Pakatan Harapan (22), and many more smaller parties filling the ballot.Some seats are unbelievably crowded—Tulid alone has 14 candidates, and several other constituencies are seeing battles with 10 to 13 contestants.Only 71 women are contesting, out of 596.The youngest candidate is 24, the oldest is 86—showing a political field that spans generations but remains heavily male-dominated.To understand how chaotic this is, compare it to previous elections:
2020 had 447 candidates.2018 had 352.The steady rise reflects a growing fragmentation of Sabah politics and the influence of money politics, which remains strong among major players. The sheer number of candidates makes it clear that strategic vote-splitting, financial leverage, and political patronage are still very much alive in Sabah’s electoral culture.
Another major factor this year is sentiment. Sabah nationalism is growing significantly. Many voters are leaning toward Sabah-centric parties and leaders who speak for state rights, autonomy, and local struggles.
Because of this, I believe PN will be wiped out. Their message simply isn’t landing with a ground that is increasingly conscious of its identity and local pride.
Likewise, PBK and Aspirasi have no real chance in this environment—the field is too crowded, the competition too intense, and the electorate too focused on Sabah-based narratives.
Based on everything I’m seeing, I believe this election will produce a thin-majority government. My current assessment is as follows:
GRS is the most likely coalition to lead the next Sabah government but they won’t secure a big majority. They will probably need support—likely from PH, although PH’s seat count may drop, and possibly from Warisan if post-election negotiations happen.BN looks set for a serious wipeout, perhaps surviving with just one or two seats at most. Their influence has shrunk significantly.STAR, UPKO and SAPP are likely to remain in the Opposition, unless last-minute realignments reshape the landscape (as they often do in Sabah).Ironically, staying in opposition may actually benefit STAR and UPKO, giving them space to rebuild credibility and position themselves strongly for the 16th general election (GE16).
With so many multi-cornered fights, anything can happen on polling day. The vote share of each party will be split in unusual ways, and even strong candidates can lose because of strategic independents or overlapping Sabah-centric parties.
But one thing is clear: Sabah is heading into a historic, chaotic, colourful and deeply significant election—one that reflects the state’s growing desire for autonomy, its long-standing grievances, and its complex political identity.
Whatever the outcome, this election will shape Sabah’s direction for years to come—not just in terms of governance, but in defining what Sabah politics will look like in the next decade. 
William Mangor is a former writer and Saya Anak Sarawak (SAS) activist.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of  MMKtT.
- Focus Malaysia.

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