As Sabah Polls Loom Unity Remains A Distant Dream

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The writer (left) with former Upko president and veteran Sabah politician Tan Sri Bernard Dompok.
SABAH stands on the precipice of another high-stakes political gamble.
The 17th State Election (PRN) is a ritual of ambition and betrayal. On paper, it is a contest for 73 seats that will shape the next five years of governance in a state rich in resources, yet perennially poor in equitable progress.
But peel back the veneer, and you’ll find a cauldron of egos, ethnic fault lines, and Malayan meddling that could make even Machiavelli blush.
As voters head to the polls on Nov 29, the real question isn’t about who wins, but whether Sabah can claw its way out of its dynastic shadows towards something resembling genuine self-determination.
For outsiders, Sabah’s politics often blur into an exotic sideshow.
In the land of the native KDMR communities, the Orang Asal, and a burgeoning Muslim polity, the stakes are existential.
Under the weight of the federal appeal on the 40 per cent High Court judgement, KDM unity, Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), and ‘Sabah for Sabahans’ stir the campaign.
The incumbent Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition, stitched together with Pakatan Harapan (PH) partners, holds the fort for now.
But as the campaigns heat up, cracks are appearing across the facade.
Internal dissent brews, fuelled by whispers of betrayal and the ever-present lure of power.
At its core, Sabah’s PRN is a clash of ‘political blocs’ pitted against pretenders who might tip the scales.
The GRS-PH incumbency looks solid on the campaign trail – a pragmatic marriage of convenience that has delivered infrastructure wins and federal goodwill.
Datuk Seri Panglima Hajiji Noor, the incumbent chief minister, projects stability, but beneath the surface, fissures run deep.
PH’s national ambitions chafe against GRS’ fiercely localist bent, and GRS will clash with PH in a few seats.
If history is any guide, these cracks could widen into chasms post-poll, especially if the turnout dips among the urban youths disillusioned by unkept promises on jobs and anti-corruption drives.
The next bloc is Barisan Nasional (BN), the old warhorse of Malaysian politics, now awkwardly yoked to PH in a bid to resurrect its glory.
Umno Sabah is BN, and BN is Umno Sabah, and it is playing a cunning long game: engineer a BN-PH ‘plus-plus’ super-coalition after the PRN that sidelines GRS entirely.
The target? Ousting Hajiji.
It’s a high-wire act; Umno Sabah must prove it is a ‘Sabah First’ party despite running under Umno’s banner.
Umno Sabah is also split with three big warlords who do not like Datuk Seri Panglima Bung Moktar Radin, Umno Sabah’s paper leader and candidate for CM.
Then there’s the Sabah First purists bloc: a trio of parties channelling the indigenist fervour that has long defined the state’s political soul.
The Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) and Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR), anchored by a KDM core, embody the original nationalist fire lit by Datuk Seri Panglima Dr Jeffrey G Kitingan, who is widely seen as the grand old man of Sabah First politics.
He went to jail when Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was prime minister – and everyone over 40 remembers that.
This is his last chance to be CM and unite the KDM under him.
But Jeffrey’s path is blocked not by outsiders, but by a phalanx of rival KDM chieftains, their envy as sharp as their jealousy.
Petty feuds among KDM leaders have hobbled what could be a unified front, turning potential kingmakers into squabbling courtiers.
The next nationalist bloc is Parti Warisan, led by the charismatic Datuk Seri Panglima Shafie Apdal, harbours only one ambition: clinch at least 37 seats outright, or with one junior partner to form a solo government.
Their pitch? Unadulterated ‘Sabah Firstism’, blending east coast Muslim gravitas with KDM solidarity.
Shafie’s tenure as chief minister from 2018 to 2020 was a high-water mark, marked by bold ‘In God We Trust, Change We Must’ tagline and tangible gains in education and health.
In a fragmented field, Warisan’s machine, oiled by loyalists and diaspora funds, positions it as the dark horse capable of upending the status quo.
Another bloc is United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (Upko), the KDM stalwart, mirrors Sabah-centric ethos but with a more flexible spine.
They are hunting for coalition bedfellows since they are only contesting in 25 seats.
Failing that, they will join whoever forms the government.
Their poster boy, Datuk Ewon Benedick, is a folk hero for quitting the federal cabinet in a principled stand against the 40 per cent appeal.
The next bloc is Perikatan Nasional (PN), the conservative federal bloc, in my opinion ‘no chance in hell’ of a breakthrough; their campaign is dead-on-arrival because of ‘Gardenia’.
They will win just a few seats, and will beg to be part of the next state government.
The last group, you cannot really call them a bloc, are the independents who are hoping for a ‘black swan’ wildcard.
In my opinion, pure fantasy.
In Sabah’s patronage-driven system, lone wolves can never go far.
Those independents who win will auction their mandates to the highest bidder, greasing the wheels of post-poll horse-trading.
Having said the above, nothing is etched in stone.
The magic number is 37, a simple majority in the Dewan Undangan Negeri (State Legislative Assembly).
Fall short, and Sabah descends into its familiar chaos: a bazaar of coalitions where ideology bows to expediency.
Everyone wants to be in government: the contracts, the influence, the pork-barrel projects that keep your re-election humming and roads paved.
In this scramble, old foes become fast friends, and yesterday’s traitors are today’s deputies.
But here’s the rub: Sabah’s constitutional playbook has been rewritten to favour the shadows.
Gone are the days when the largest bloc claimed first try on forming government.
Now, the TYT (Head of State) wields discretion to anoint any YB-elect (elected representative) to try to form a coalition, provided that they can muster a majority.
Critics decry it as anti-democratic sleight of hand.
To be fair, Sabah has never been a democracy.
For six decades, it has functioned mostly like a dynastic oligarchy: a carousel of strongmen from political families.
Another wildcard: the TYT is rumoured to harbour a particular political animus towards a certain leader from the ESSCom zone.
The real quest in this PRN is the search for political unity among the Natives.
KDM unity was shattered in 1994 due to a schism in Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) that splintered KDM solidarity.
Since then, the KDM and the broader Non-Malay Bumiputera (NMB) have chased a single party, a unifying leader to reclaim the chief ministership.
The younger NMB yearns to steer the ship again, wresting control from Malay-Muslim dominance.
The current ‘Huguan Siou’ does not inspire any more.
They worry about PTI (illegal immigrant) offspring, now fully Malaysians, voting in blocs that amplify federal voices, eroding the ‘Sabah-for-Sabahans’ ethos.
Political Islam is another concern. Religion was never an issue until from the late 1990s onwards.
In my opinion, the biggest hurdle is internal demons, not external threat (Peninsular Malaysian manipulation).
KDM politics is a viper’s nest of oversized egos.
Every rising KDM star faces sabotage from peers.
It is a tragedy of petty politics, where jealousy trumps collective gain.
Malayan politicians exploit these rifts.
The result? A community adrift, its potential squandered on in-fighting.
So, what sways the Sabah voter in this PRN?
First, TikTok and social media. Campaigns here are not won in ‘ceremahs’ (public talks), but in 15-second videos and memes that mock rivals.
You can expect deepfakes.
Second, vote-buying and freebies.
Third, and most potent, identity politics: the primal pull of tribe, faith, and ‘Sabah for Sabahans’.
As the ballots drop, one truth endures: in Borneo’s political jungle, survival favours the adaptable with lots of money, and know how to play with ‘identity politics’. - Borneo Post
James Chin is professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania.
*The views expressed by the writer do not necessarily reflect the official position of MMKtT*

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