Unity Government Ends If Najib Walks Free

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For the past few weeks, efforts have been undertaken to prepare the political establishment and the public to accept Najib Abdul Razak, and soon also Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, walking free. 
On one hand, are the political and legal moves towards pardon for Najib, which include the continuous campaign to smear judge Mohd Nazlan Mohd Ghazali who first convicted Najib, and acquittal for Zahid. 
On the other hand, the narrative and propaganda to prepare supporters of Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government that would strengthen the government’s position in the upcoming midterm state elections.
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his deputy Ahmad Zahid HamidiThree arguments for Najib’s Pardon 
How so? The propagandists offer three interrelated arguments to get the buy-in from Pakatan Harapan leaders and partisan supporters. 
First, Najib is still popular amongst rural Malays. Second, Najib walking free, which generates similar expectations for Zahid, will strengthen Umno and by extension, the unity government in the upcoming state elections. Third, that Anwar has to pander to Umno, otherwise, Umno will walk out of the government and cause its collapse.
This campaign has worked to some extent in charming Harapan leaders. Even though Umno has no legal standing to initiate the pardon, Anwar does not clarify on that important fact and makes it clear that the plea for pardon has to be filed by Najib himself.
Instead, he made the procedurally-correct statement that he would be part of the due process as the de facto Federal Territories Minister and that every application has to be heard fairly.
Not to say something is politically equivalent to say something else. Whether it is to merely avoid embarrassment for Umno as his government partner, or because he is sold on the electoral benefits of freeing Najib, many Malaysians read that as the 10th prime minister is testing the water temperature.
Former prime minister Najib Abdul RazakWhether it is the denial by Anthony Loke that the cabinet has discussed about Najib’s pardon, the warning by Lim Kit Siang or PKR parliamentarian Hassan Karim, or the emphasis on the king’s discretion by another PKR parliamentarian William Leong, the public perception changes little. 
The battle would be determined by political consequences, not legal technicalities. Whatever Anwar’s storyline, if Najib walks free, Anwar would be internationally damaged as Aung San Suu Kyi after defending the genocide against the Rohingyas. Domestically, he would be like Dr Mahathir Mohamad who wasted his second chance to change Malaysia.
It is therefore important to debunk the three arguments put forward by Umno and some opinion leaders. 
Najib’s popularity is an outdated myth
Firstly, Najib’s popularity is a myth, definitely an outdated one if it was ever close to being a reality. The Bossku phenomenon was very much built on the Malays’ sympathy for him as the “underdog” in the 22 months when Umno was excluded from the federal government for the first time. 
Today, if such sympathy for an “underdog” exists amongst the Malays, it would be for Muhyiddin Yassin, not Najib. Najib was no longer an “underdog” when Umno returned to the government after the Sheraton Move. 
Umno did not win the state polls in Malacca and Johor because of Najib but because the Green Wave has not emerged yet. In Johor, the poster boy was certainly the incumbent menteri besar Hasni Mohammad, not Najib.
If Najib is still popular, why was there no mass protest against his imprisonment in August 2022? Why was Umno wiped out in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Perlis, and Penang, and damaged in Perak and Pahang three months later? Why did so many rural seats in those states fall to Perikatan Nasional (PN) instead?
Stronger Green Wave 
Secondly, Najib walking free will not strengthen Umno and by extension, the unity government, but instead will bring a stronger Green Wave in the upcoming midterm state elections. 
It takes no rocket science to understand it. Regardless of whether Najib is pardoned or not, his supporters would have to support both Umno and Harapan. They cannot turn around to vote for PN, can they? For those who want a share in the patronage and incumbent’s advantages, voting to prolong the unity government is the only rational option. 
In contrast, freeing Najib will amplify the Green Wave by pushing Malay swing voters to PN and keeping Harapan voters at home. 
Remember how gejala dua darjat (the “two-class” symptom) angered many Malaysians - including and especially the Malays – during the lockdown?   
The public’s memory and anger would be refreshed by a blue-blooded Najib who cried “injustice” for 12-year imprisonment after stealing RM42 million when a desperate single mother had to accept a 14-month jail term for stealing two packets of Milo worth only RM73.
Umno won’t leave govt for Najib or Zahid
Thirdly, Anwar does not have to pander to Umno to avoid the party walking out of his government, resulting in its collapse. Anwar is not held at ransom by Najib or Zahid because Umno - as a party driven by patronage - needs to be in the federal government.
Being Harapan’s No 2 in the unity government is the best Umno can currently ask for. Leaving the coalition government to join PN would mean a pathetic No 3 position after PAS and Bersatu and getting only breadcrumbs in the next Malay unity government. 
Ironically, as a Malay nationalist party, Umno’s biggest value is in a multi-ethnic government, not in the company of two other Malay-Muslim nationalist parties. Umno elites know this and hence no one would advocate for Umno’s exit as long as being in government helps in regaining Malay support. 
Umno will leave Anwar’s government under only one condition: panic of losing Malays’ support and being wiped out, like what Bersatu did after its defeat in the Tanjung Piai by-election. And that’s exactly what allowing Najib and Zahid to walk free would lead to. The unity government will be buried in GE16 if not earlier.
Voters trump patronage, machinery
Why is Anwar’s government walking into the controversies of Najib’s pardon and politicians’ appointment to statutory bodies which only erode Harapan’s legitimacy and the morale of its electoral base?
Facing the threat of PN’s relentless communalist attacks, many government leaders, Harapan partisans and Anwar loyalists appear to believe that the survival of a unity government hinges on the co-optation of elites and control of patronage and party machinery. 
Hence, Zahid’s purge of his dissidents and his firm control of the party machinery are hailed as a positive factor that would reduce the Green Wave in the midterm state elections. The push for Najib’s pardon is then a logical next step in this thinking.
They do not see that patronage and party machinery are useless before an electoral tsunami, a fear that already troubles many sober leaders in Umno. If starving the opposition can ensure victory, it would be MCA and not DAP holding 40 seats in Parliament now.
Currently, the tripartite competition in the peninsula can be framed in two spectrums. 
The first, between the poles of multi-ethnic power-sharing and Malay-Muslim nationalism, pits Harapan and BN on the same side of the unity government against PN. 
The second spectrum separates the coalitions on Umno’s patronage politics, which culminated in the 1MDB scandal. The 2022 election was a fight between two opposition blocs campaigning against BN on corruption, in which Harapan and PN respectively secured - nationwide - a 37 percent multiethnic vote base and a 30 percent Malay vote base versus BN’s shrunk predominantly-Malay support at 22 percent.
As much as Harapan and Umno partisans like to believe that the prosecution of Muhyiddin and Bersatu leaders will deprive PN of the anti-corruption credential (as in its Bersih and Stabil slogan), this divide persists as long as Umno does not have a break with its kleptocratic past and worse, Harapan adopts some chapters from Umno’s playbook against its own electoral promises.
PN would love to see Najib and Zahid walking free, as it would become a new primary divide (orange) replacing the unity government (green line), which would not only send anti-corruption Malay swing voters to PN but also cut through Harapan’s base and keep some Harapan supporters at home. That would produce the first PAS prime minister by GE16 at the latest.
It’s really not rocket science. - Mkini
WONG CHIN HUAT is an Essex-trained political scientist at Sunway University. He is a professor at the university’s Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) Asia. Mindful of humans’ self-interest motivation while pursuing a better world, he is a principled opportunist.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.

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