The Sino American Trade War Benefits China S Competitors


 

US president Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee in November’s presidential election, are competing to portray themselves as tough on trade and China.
Biden has already imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles, and Trump has vowed to impose a 200% tariff on Chinese cars manufactured in Mexico, along with a range of other protectionist measures affecting steel, solar panels, semiconductors, and batteries. The European Union is likely to follow suit, albeit more cautiously.
Under President Xi Jinping, China is widely expected to respond with tit-for-tat tariffs rather than turn the other cheek, thus increasing the likelihood of a trade war that could significantly impede the green-energy transition and potentially lead to a broader geopolitical conflict.
What is often missing from the debate about the escalating rivalry between the US and China is the perspective of other countries, especially larger developing economies. After all, these tariffs are not just protectionist but also discriminatory.
If there is any truth to the joke that China is the only country in history with a comparative advantage in every industry, then targeting the world’s most efficient exporter and supplier with protectionist measures could create lucrative opportunities for its competitors.
In analysing these developments, it is instructive to consider the free-trade agreements (FTAs) of the post-war period. These FTAs were a mirror image of today’s discriminatory measures: while they reduced tariffs on imports from partner countries, effectively diverting trade away from third-country suppliers, today’s tariffs are being imposed on imports from perceived adversaries like China, redirecting economic activity towards third-country suppliers considered allies.
The Biden administration’s China trade policy, which US National Security adviser Jake Sullivan likened to “a small yard and a high fence” in 2023, could further weaken Chinese manufacturing.
In fact, the higher the tariffs, the greater the competitive advantage third-country suppliers will gain over Chinese firms, particularly in large markets like the US and Europe.
To be sure, these gains will depend on the extent of US protectionism. If Sullivan’s “small yard” grows larger, with US tariffs imposed not only on imported goods from China but also on goods from third-country suppliers that either use components produced in China or by Chinese firms located in these countries – the benefits to these suppliers will be reduced.
In the language of FTAs, rules of origin can be so restrictive on Chinese inputs that third-country suppliers gain less than they would otherwise.
In the first wave of discriminatory protectionism unleashed by Trump, the scope of protectionism was limited to direct imports from China. As a result, as documented by Aaditya Mattoo and others at the World Bank, third countries like Vietnam benefitted significantly.
This time, given bipartisan support in Washington for anti-China legislation, the scenario of a growing yard cannot be ruled out.
Broadly speaking, the countries affected by Western protectionism can be divided into two groups: those integrated into the Chinese supply chain, such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea, and those less dependent on it, like Mexico, India, Turkey, Brazil, Poland, and Hungary. The second group stands to gain more from US trade policies.
India offers a prime example. It has successfully attracted several Western firms exiting China since launching its “China Plus One” strategy in 2014. Notably, Apple has significantly expanded its iPhone manufacturing operations in India, and Tesla reportedly may follow suit.
This shift presents India with an opportunity to revitalise its consistently underperforming manufacturing sector. To this end, the government is offering subsidies to attract foreign investment and offset disadvantages such as relatively poor infrastructure.
By increasing the returns on investing in India, current US trade policy could complement its own industrial policy. If India can establish a supply chain that is largely independent of China – a trend that is slowly under way in the electronics sector – it could gain a competitive advantage over China and countries linked to it.
Solar panels are a case in point. I recently visited an American-owned factory just outside of Chennai that produces solar panels for export to the US. This operation owes its success to Trump’s tariffs on imported solar panels from China, which the Biden administration has maintained.
Without these measures, Chinese manufacturers’ efficiency and scale – helped by massive government subsidies – would have rendered India an unattractive investment destination. But India was able to seize the opportunity and increase its solar-panel exports.
More broadly, the greater the overlap between America’s strategic interests and third countries’ capabilities and comparative advantages, the more likely that discriminatory protectionism will be long-lasting and provide certainty to investors seeking to diversify away from a ruthlessly efficient China.
In pharmaceuticals, for example, India has the capability to step in if the US decides to impose tariffs on Chinese drug manufacturers, which dominate the global production and export of active pharmaceutical ingredients.
But China’s competitors should curb their enthusiasm. Discriminatory protectionism is currently confined to relatively sophisticated industries and is unlikely to extend to labour-intensive sectors like apparel and footwear, where poorer countries have a stronger comparative advantage.
More importantly, US and EU discriminatory protectionism is beneficial only in moderation. Should today’s trade war escalate into a full-scale geopolitical conflict, any potential advantages would be negated by a broader economic downturn and increased uncertainty, which could have a chilling effect on global trade and investment. In this scenario, everyone would lose. - FMT
Arvind Subramanian is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former chief economic adviser to the Indian government.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.


Artikel ini hanyalah simpanan cache dari url asal penulis yang berkebarangkalian sudah terlalu lama atau sudah dibuang :

http://malaysiansmustknowthetruth.blogspot.com/2024/05/the-sino-american-trade-war-benefits.html

Kempen Promosi dan Iklan
Kami memerlukan jasa baik anda untuk menyokong kempen pengiklanan dalam website kami. Serba sedikit anda telah membantu kami untuk mengekalkan servis percuma aggregating ini kepada semua.

Anda juga boleh memberikan sumbangan anda kepada kami dengan menghubungi kami di sini
Why The Us Can T Win The Trade War With China And Shouldn T Try

Why The Us Can T Win The Trade War With China And Shouldn T Try

papar berkaitan - pada 17/5/2024 - jumlah : 202 hits
Allegations about China s manufacturing overcapacity have sparked heated discussions among policymakers During her visit to China in April US Treasury secretary Janet L Yellen argued that when the global market is flooded by artificially ch...
Clearing The Air The Benefits Of Bnx Merv 13 Filter Media

Clearing The Air The Benefits Of Bnx Merv 13 Filter Media

papar berkaitan - pada 24/5/2024 - jumlah : 140 hits
It is important to ensure that the indoor environment is clean and healthy in this world where the quality of air is becoming more important One crucial element to achieving this goal is the choice of air filters for HVAC systems In the mid...
Raisi S Death Might Serve As The Excuse To Start World War Iii

Raisi S Death Might Serve As The Excuse To Start World War Iii

papar berkaitan - pada 21/5/2024 - jumlah : 109 hits
It doesn t matter why the helicopter carrying Raisi crashed Even if it crashed due to bad weather equipment malfunction or internal sabotage in the back of everyone s mind it is Israel that will be blamed or credited depending on which side...
The Benefits Of Installing Energy Efficient Roofing Materials

The Benefits Of Installing Energy Efficient Roofing Materials

papar berkaitan - pada 5/6/2024 - jumlah : 112 hits
Well maintained exterior features are essential to a beautiful secure home Utah s unpredictable climate could bring everything to your roof including scorching summers to an abundance of snow Utah s roofing experts are the ideal choice to e...
Lambstongues The Benefits Of Plastic Downspouts Over Metal Alternatives

Lambstongues The Benefits Of Plastic Downspouts Over Metal Alternatives

papar berkaitan - pada 21/5/2024 - jumlah : 157 hits
Downspouts are essential to perform in preventing rainwater from damaging the foundation of your home and harming your home Homeowners often have to decide between metal and plastic downspouts due to the many options available Metal downspo...
Taking The Long Way Home From Alaska

Taking The Long Way Home From Alaska

papar berkaitan - pada 20/5/2024 - jumlah : 116 hits
By Elaine Glusac from NYT Travel https ift tt p4b19dF
Al Ikhsan Sports Mengumumkan Pemenang Peraduan The Ultimate Sports Experience Spend And Win

Al Ikhsan Sports Mengumumkan Pemenang Peraduan The Ultimate Sports Experience Spend And Win

papar berkaitan - pada 21/5/2024 - jumlah : 143 hits
Bersempena ulang tahun Al Ikhsan Sports Sdn Bhd yang ke 30 Syarikat telah melancarkan peraduan The Ultimate Sports Experience Spend Win yang telah berlangsung sejak Julai 2023 sehingga Mac 2024 Hampir RM 1juta nilai hadiah yang ditawarkan a...
Beyond Lettuce Wraps Unleash The Power Of Low Carb Bread

Beyond Lettuce Wraps Unleash The Power Of Low Carb Bread

papar berkaitan - pada 21/5/2024 - jumlah : 185 hits
For those who are following an a keto or low carb diet eating on a slice of bread might seem like a distant dream Beware of carb conscious eaters The low carb world is booming It offers tasty and delicious options that don t harm your diet ...
Design The Next Bike Exif T Shirt

Design The Next Bike Exif T Shirt

papar berkaitan - pada 21/5/2024 - jumlah : 168 hits
Calling All Caf Racer Picassos Your Garage Dreams Deserve a T Shirt Tired of cookie cutter motorcycle apparel that screams generic biker dude louder than a v twin with straight pipe exhaust Do you dream in pistons and chrome and doodle caf ...
Wesley Hotel Bukit Mertajam

Beli Second Hand Bayar Harga Second Hand Jangan Pula Bayar Harga Rolls Royce Baru

Mesin Pengering Baju Midea

Pmx Anwar Ibrahim Pakai Stokin By Chefiza Yang Berharga Rm14 90 Di Sopi

Certot Lukisan Buku Latihan

Gelombang Menderhaka Sudah Bermula

Apply For Winn Strategies Playing Spaceman Slot Online

Bertemu Dengan Sahabat Dari Indonesia Jiran Lama



10 Drama Melayu Terbaru Astro Yang Best Mesti Tonton 2024 Juga Tersedia Online

8 Fakta Biodata Alif Teega Yang Kahwini Aisyah Hijanah Azhari Kini Beristeri Dua

Info Dan Sinopsis Drama Berepisod Pengantin Pasti Jadi Slot Lestary TV3

Biodata Bay Doucet Isteri Sean Lee Pelakon Malaysia Yang Kahwin Mengejut

Info Sinopsis Pelakon Drama Berepisod Bawah Payung Awan Viu Malaysia Musim 1 2


Lirik Lagu Akan Tiba Hannah Delisha

32 Jam

Thomas Arya Hatiku Chord

Makluman Pengambilan Jawatan Mara Julai 2024

Bagaimana Cara Self Love Untuk Terus Bahagia

Laju Dap Buat Kerja Tukar Gambar Kepada Pemimpin Pas Hahahaha