The Changed Power Structure In The Middle East And Its Impact On Malaysia

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The following is an analysis by SETH J. FRANTZMAN. My comments at the end.
ANALYSIS: THE MIDDLE EAST’S TECTONIC SHIFTS
region at crossroads no less important than during fall of Ottomans 100 years ago
BY SETH J. FRANTZMAN   FEBRUARY 8, 2019   

Middle East largely unchangingchaos after Arab Spring dissipatedstatus quo – againGaza still Gaza. Iraq is Iraq. Egypt is Egypt. 
ignores tectonic shifts in the last few decades 
Regimes appear same but instability of recent years major effects
region at crossroads no less important than during fall of Ottomans 100 years ago

From old leaders to a younger generationto understand changes let us look back 20 years
Who was in charge in 1999? 
Iraq Saddam Hussein, born 1937 president since 1979Saudi Arabia King Fahd, born 1921 reigning 1982 - 2005Libya Muammar Gaddafi, born 1942, came to power in 1969Egypt Hosni Mubarak, born 1928 in power since 1981 Syria Hafez Assad, born 1930 ruling since 1971Yemen  Ali Abdullah Saleh, born 1947, come to power 1958Iran Mohammed Khatami born 1943, in charge 1997 - 2005
Turkey, Mesut Yilmaz prime minister to be succeeded by Bulent Ecevit
Lebanon Rafic Hariri, born 1944  prime minister 1998 to 2000Jordan King Hussein 1935, began reign 1952Tunisia Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, born 1936, rose to power 1989 
Algeria Abdelaziz Bouteflika, born 1937 came to power 1999
Morocco Mohammed VI born 1929, came to power in 1999after Hassan II, who served since 1961, diedQatar  Emir Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, born 1952 in power 1995 - 2013Palestine Yasser Arafat born 1929, in power since 1994.
these leaders dominated late 1990sThey were products of 1930s and 1940sMost were born in colonial eraworldview shaped by Arab nationalism and Cold WarSome played role in putting down first Islamist rebellions in Egypt, Syria 1980s 
these regimes fit several clear patternsaging dictators past their peak, monarchies, a few hybrids like Lebanon
Then things changedSaddam overthrown 2003 US invasion. Arafat, Fahd, Assad and King Hussein died. Hariri was assassinated. 
Gaddafi raped to deathSaleh assassinated and body chucked onto a truckMubarak and Ali abdicate, also Hamad al-Thani
Today, leaders are younger, take after their parents or systems that produced them
Many of these men born in 1950s and 1960sSome much younger, Emir Tamim in Qatar, born in 1980Mohammed Bin Salman, crown prince of Saudi Arabia, born in 1985. Saad Hariri, Lebanon’s prime minister, born in 1970. 
leaders of Kurdistan of younger generation, also king of Moroccofew exceptions, President Hassan Rouhani in Iran, Sultan Qaboos in Oman 
this generation grew up in American hegemonyCold War ending or had already endedramifications of Gulf Warmany Arab regimes joined Americans to oust Saddam 
US leaders changed policies every four or eight yearsGeorge H.W. Bush preached “New World Order” Clinton humanitarian interventionGeorge W. Bush’s democratizationelections led to rise of Hamas in Palestinian Authority 
From US New World Order to withdrawal
Obama’s Cairo speech represented new eraUS shifted from opposing Assad to opposing ISISDisillusionment in Egypt, US supporting Muslim BrotherhoodLibya, Yemen became a chaosSyria fueled extremism across region50,000 foreign extremists flooded in to support ISIS - unprecedented
old alliances shattered, friendships testedQatar isolated by former Gulf friends warmer relations with Turkey
Iran-supported militias in Iraq, Syria and LebanonThese groups gained from war on ISIS emerged with unprecedented strength and armamentsHouthis came close to taking Bab al-Mandab Strait 
From chaos, new alliance systems emergedbedrock states, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, form one systemQatar, Turkey form anotherIran and allies, a third
US at historic crossroads to withdraw – again – from the region. third major US withdrawal since 1990sBush Sr. reduced US footprintObama also didAnd so has Trump
Russia filled some gaps Arab League, weak in addressing region’s needsno longer consensus in opposition to Israel
Strong states defeat independent political groups 
since 2011 rise of political groups seeking to carve out spaces included Kurdish movements that sought independence and autonomy
also included long list of Sunni extremist groupsIdlib Hayat Tahrir al-Sham dominatesEastern Syria Syrian Democratic Forces strongestHouthis in Yemen, Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army
Is the Sunni-Shia conflict over?
unprecedented Sunni-Shia infighting dominated some countriesEthnic struggles emerged in othersNew state structures have returnedBut they have returned in a different way. 
Arab Gulf states taken lead in foreign policylaunching war in Yemen in 2015 to confront HouthisEgypt playing a role in Libya
Regional security frameworks emergingmeeting in late Jan of Egypt, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi, Kuwait, Jordan Proxies and militias still exist
Turkey unprecedented role in Iraq, Syriaappears set to keep its soldiers in its two southern neighbors
Gulf states are patching things up with Syria
Defeating ISIS and the new alliance systems
last ISIS stronghold liberated in Euphrates valleyMiddle East transformed and at turning point
last decade struggle between extremist forces to exploit weak states regional powers whose agenda is to dominate the region 
unique time in Middle East that presents complex challenges for policy-makers
region now increasingly influenced by two rising systemsIran and proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen represent one systemTurkey, Qatar and partners in northern Syria, Libya, Sudan represent another
Saudi, Israel, UAE, Egypt, Kurdistan in northern Iraqreopening of embassies in SyriaIran-Israel tensions in Syriacomplexity of US withdrawal from Syria.  
Syrian civil war major implications for Western powersfueled growing connection between Iran, Russia, Turkey they have to agree to post-conflict Syria minus US 
rise of ISIS also importantturning point in confronting jihadists who flourished from 1980s and underpinned ISIS
New totalitarianism
increase crackdowns on dissentPalestinian Authority, appear to prefer status quo over any new elections also the case in Iraq and Lebanon where governing elites prefer status quo preferable to chaos of Yemen and Libya 
region witnessing decline in any experiments to create new state structuresdecline of independence of Syrian rebels in northern Syriadecline of autonomy of Syrian Democratic Forces in eastern SyriaThis decline dovetails with the new authoritarianism
States fear chaos, instability, extremist movementsStrong governments seen as best remedy to extremism Controlling religion preferable to free-for-all 
Is this a ‘New Middle East’? 
Is this a “New Middle East” Or is this a return to ancient regimes before 2010
destabilized by democratization attempts and wars sparked by Saddam Hussein in 1990s? Are we seeing eclipse of jihadist to destabilize countries? Will Turkey, Russia, Iran be main beneficiaries at expense of West
tensions between Israel and Iran will continueIsrael continue to make inroads among Gulf statesrecent official visits broken decades of silence
challenges  will be addressed without US in the regionmajor change from last decadesUS policy at the center of decisions being made locally
US reputation forever changed by zigzagging policiesdifficult to change that perception 
region must recover from wars of last decade Iraq, Syria and Egypt face uphill challenges
Iran, Turkey emerged much stronger from decades of instabilityThey will seek to dominate region, with rising Russian influence 
My comments :  How will this affect us here in Malaysia? It depends on how stupid Middle East worshippers like Anwar Ibrahim, that Mufti fellow in the north, Maszlee Malik and many, many Arab wannabes want to be.
The Middle East will be screwed up for a very long time to come.  I have been watching the Middle East since the 1960s.  I recall watching the Six Day Arab Israeli War of 1967 on TV.  I was seven years old. It lasted all of six days.  Then again the Yom Kippur War of 1973. That one lasted much longer - 19 days to be exact.
The Arabs claimed they won both the wars. In 1973 the Egyptians claimed victory after they crossed the Suez Canal from west to east.  They did not mention that a few days later they had to re-cross the canal again from east to west. 
There are no angels in the Middle East. There are many devils. But there are also an extremely large number of very stupid people. The word stupid can be found in the dictionary. This means someone has to be stupid. They are all in the Middle East. 
The Middle East has no freedom, no free Press, and offers few economic opportunities to its bursting demographics. 
I have said this before -  Egypt is the biggest time bomb in the Middle East. Egypt has 100 million people the vast majority of whom live in squalid living conditions. They have very little future. 
Many of the rest are like 'one item on the menu restaurants'. They only have oil and little else.  With the oil age most certainly coming to an end, they have not developed free and democratic societies, or technologically and socially advanced societies which can propel them forwards.
Plus they suffer an overdose of a false religion that keeps them inside a type of hellfire. These are a forsaken people. They have forsaken themselves.
Freedom and democracy are very poisonous and alien concepts not only among Arabs but in the entire Middle East.
Hence the observation by the writer above that after the chaos of the Arab Spring, the Middle East is settling down to a new round of totalitarianism.
It is true that BOTH the Palestinian Authority and the Hamas DO NOT WANT to have any more elections in Gaza or the West Bank. The last elections were held THIRTEEN YEARS AGO in 2006. 
There will be "elections" in Egypt where Sisi will easily win over 90% of the votes.
Without basic human freedoms, this whole region will be screwed up.  Women drivers in Saudi Arabia is just a PR exercise. It remains to be seen.
It is best that Malaysia just disengage from the Middle East. Tuan-tuan jangan jadi bodoh. 
Whether the Arabs want to shag camels or donkeys  are not any of our business.  Jangan kita masuk campur atau nak ambil tahu sangat.  
The moment Donald Trump announced US withdrawal from Syria, the Arab Gulf countries are renegotiating to re-open their embassies in Syria.
Just a few weeks ago the Saudis, the UAE, Qatar etc were funding the ISIS to bring down the 'Shia' regime of Bashar Assad.  Now with the US gone,  the Arabs are afraid if  the Iranians or the Turks will become influential in Syria.
So now they are back to backing the Assad regime.  These are extreme hypocrites. They have only one thing in mind - their own self preservation. They will sell their mothers and daughters and sleep with the devil just to safeguard their own wealth and positions. 
The other new alliance in the Middle East is Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf States and Israel. 
So who should Malaysia suppoet? The answer is very easy. Malaysia should support Malaysia.Tak payah pi cuci jamban orang lain.Posted by Syed Akbar Ali 

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