Syria Into Confusion

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 Many questions are now arising in Syria and among Iranians. The rebel group Hayat Tahrir Shams or HTS has only about 15,000 fighters. They have no tanks or armored vehicles. No artillery cannons or long range weapons. Yet the 250,000 strong Syrian Army which is fully equipped, well trained and fully combat experienced just stood down. They just laid down their weapons and walked away and handed over Syria to the 15,000 strong rebels. Why did that happen?  There is much debate about this. The 250,000 strong Syrian Army was obviously given orders to stand down. By whom and why?
Well now "the fog of war" is spreading across Syria.
The German general Carl von Clausewitz coined the term "fog of war" to describe the uncertain environment of combat. In military operations, the fog of war can make it difficult to see through the effects of unexpected events"

In other words "Oops!!"
In Syria the names of a few morons keep popping up - the main one being Reccip Tayep Erdogan.

But some summary first. That territory the Israelis have taken at the security buffer zone between Israel and Syria on the Golan Heights is a bit more than previously said. And now it appears that the Israelis will be holding on to that territory for some time - they will likely use it as "hostage" to bargain for peace with Syria. A few reports are saying that the Israelis have not only taken Mount Hermon (which is 46 km from Damascus) but they have ventured to Qatana a small town that is 26 km from Damascus. That is too close. 
Since 8th December the Israeli Airforce has conducted 450 sorties over Syria. They have completely destroyed the Syrian air force that was on the ground. All of it - fighter jets, cargo planes, helicopters. About 575 aircraft. All destroyed.



 
The Israeli Navy has also attacked the main Syrian naval bases at Tartus and Latakia. By the way ALL Russian naval vessels have already left Syria. The Israeli have sunk or destroyed ALL major assets of the Syrian Navy, which is about 10 missile boats. Small navy.
This was done to prevent these offensive weapons from falling into the hands of rebel forces who may use it against Israel in the future.
However the Israelis did not destroy thousands of tanks and Infantry Fighting Vehicles that belonged to the Syrian Army. This is so that the various Syrian rebel factions can hijack the tanks and IFVs and use them to start killing each other. It is called strategic thinking.
Ok the main rebel group the Hayat Tahir Shams are not fully in control. Their 15,000 fighters are not enough to occupy and hold the whole of Syria. They are strong from Idlib to Aleppo and Damascus. In other areas there are other rebel groups in charge.
The Kurds control a large part of the east, the Druze in a small part of the south of Syria.
And the rebel forces are making their own claims. The Druze in the south are itching to fight the HTS. The Druze do not like them. In another life the HTS was known as the ISIS (Jubhat al Nusra). In another life they were known as Al Qaeda.
Among the HTS there are at least two factions. The leader Al Jolani (Golani) is trying to project a moderate image. But among his buddies some of them have issued statements that they want to liberate Al Aqsa and rescue Gaza. This will cause tension inside the HTS.


The Syrian Kurdish people are wary because they see Dumbo Erdogan standing behind the HTS. Erdogan kills the Kurds just for the heck of it. What the heck - just kill them Kurds. That fellow has satan stamped all over him.

Plenty of questions are being asked in Iran how come Syria has been lost so easily? Over the past 20 years or more Iran has spent billions of US Dollars on Syria. They are finding out now that a lot of that money has long followed Bashar Assad out of the country. Possibly earning 5% - 6% per annum in some wealth fund. 
I am now waiting for the first shooting and fighting to break out among these various factions in Syria. Somebody has bitten off more than they can chew. How do you say bodoh in Turkish?

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.
By Syed Akbar Ali 

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