Semburit The Movie Neither Anwar Nor Mahathir Who Then Is The 3rd Party

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Since the last posting on the alleged Azmin Ali-Haziq Aziz sex video, the question that this blog have been pondering over the hands behind the video release and distribution, Haziq's brevity to confess and brimming confidence as he came out of the police after a night of interrogation.

In her column last week, Joceline Tan saw in Haziq "seems to have gone into this high-stakes game with his eyes wide open". In fact, Haziq seemed like a well trained Matahari, a WW 1 spy doing for the German.

It means he has a handler, the term to describe those given charge to manage these so-called agents or operatives. Joceline described it as hidden hands. However, it is not an easy task to know and the best one could figure out is to analysis the outcome of the actions.

Both this blog and followed by Joceline's initial observation mentioned the possibility it is linked to  Lathaefa Koya's appointment as MACC Chief Commissioner and transition of power from Tun Dr Mahathir to Dato Seri Anwar Ibrahim, in which Mahathir's preference is to Dato Seri Azmin Ali.

The subsequent events seemed to lead to Anwar as the one to benefit the most from the video expose. One could see Azmin's people and supporters pointing their fingers to Anwar Ibrahim.

This is only an expected outcome after one reporter tipped off Azmin met with Mahathir before he flew off for London. He accused the leak to Anwar and Mahathir ask him why are you waiting? Go pursue!

Anwar?

Despite being the main beneficiary, the reaction of the first PKR's MPKT meeting was rather stunt. They could be acting and pretending to not know, but it seemed they were genuinely surprised by what happened.

One can sense from the reactions they were hated to be going in the same direction again to dwell and defend Sodomy 3. It is not about being in different direction from Azmin but the stigma of the party being forever known as Pee Gay Arr could destroy the party.

If Anwar was the hidden hands, he will face the wrath of Mahathir again. He has been careful not to be seen as forceful and not rock the PH boat.

DAP could be doing it, but not the interested party himself.

This is certainly a change in view from the earlier posting but if Mahathir can often change his stance after the excuse of seeing more evidence, there is nothing wrong in being truthful.

Mahathir?

If it is not Anwar, who else could it be but Mahathir.

This game is not for the normal mortal. It is the games of the Gods or the Malay say, Dewa-Dewa. If not Anwar, it would automatic point to Mahathir, not him per se but within his command.

That curiosity was responded by laughter from a senior political analysts. Naturally, why would he do a number on his current flavour as heir apparent?

More so, DAP's demand for a transition plan puts him in a spot and pushing Mahathir's back towards the wall. The unthinkable action is to knock off one's own allies. .

Nevertheless, there are possible basis for Mahathir to throw Azmin under the bus.

For the past few months, it has been rather quiet on the political party front. It leads to the believe that the planned abandonment of UMNO by its MPs to frog to PPBM has died down.

And, since attainng the PKR Presidency, Anwar has made initial effort to addressed the split in the party between the pro-Anwar and anti-Anwar. Part of the anti-Anwar group support Azmin. So Anwar approached all MPs that possibly is aligned to Azmin and could be supporting Mahathir to turn them over.

Azmin's forte is politics and he may have failed to deliver the number of MPs to support Mahathir. During the PKR party election, grassroot were talking about Azmin turned down Mahathir's request to take on Anwar for the Presidency.

Talk is it was a ploy to get Azmin to leeave PKR and join PPBM.

As Minister, Azmin is not a performer. Apparently, he did not shine and failed to prepare a plan to turnaround the economy. Both Azmin and Lim Guan Eng were unable to deliver of his request and had to be reminded of the assignment.

The plan ended up falling into old Tun Daim to do and it pissed the man.

The common argument to say Mahathir will not do that on Azmin is his defense on the video and other than Azmin, he has none to pick as successor.

However, there is a popular belief that Azmin was dumped by Mahathir to male way for PPBM's Dato Mukhriz. It is popular believe but this blogger viewed Mukhriz is not competent enough.

If one still believe Mahathir is still on top of his game and steps ahead of everyone, the conspiracy theory by Reggie Jessie believe it was his own doing. It was his way of making sure Mukhriz is the successor to Azmin and make Anwar over excited and over confident to do the stupid thing.

According to the theory, Mahathir had bought and paid over 65 of PKR, Amanah, DAP, Sabah/Sarawak and UMNO MPs at the going price of RM25 million. A rumour from a former UMNO state assemblyman, Anwar is giving commitment for US$5 million offer for non-supporter MPs.

There was a rumour heard before GE14 that PPBM had amassed RM1 billion war chest to buy over UMNO MPs in the event PPBM come short to be in power for Mahathir to be Prime Minister.

All this could happen when Mahathir return from the Bangkok Asean meeting tomorrow. It has to be sorted out before the next Parliamentary seating on July 1st. His press secretary already returned earlier.

According to a PKR state leader source, the targeted date for Anwar to assume the premiership is before August. He is expected to get the support of Abang Jo and GPS MPs.

Taib Mahmud?

In the earlier posting, it was speculated that Latheefa Koya would pursue Pehin Seri Taib Mahmud.

This is one of the Gods of politics able to silently do such a manouvre. By hitting at Azmin, it could be Taib Mahmud's subtle message to Latheefa. Known to be feisty, she may choose to ignore a norm and unstated agreement that Taib is not to be touch.

It does not matter that Sarawak Report's Clare Rewcastle is now friendly to Mahathir and Sarawak state election is coming up, he is one of the Gods of Malaysian politics in the same league as Mahathir.

Touching him could lead to the break up of Malaysia. The alleged corruption against him may have ulterior 's motive beyond the knowledge of others.

As a Santubong boy, in which the constituency is a PBB stronghold and Dato Wan Junaidi used to win by more than 20,000 majority, Haziq Aziz could be a Matahari planted into PKR to fix Azmin. This fit in with the claim by PKR that he has been in and out of PKR.

Another reason to suspect so is the manner Haziq anticipated and replied to every move by Azmin but as pointed out by Hishamuddin Rais, the confession does not jive. He was frolicking with Azmin in May and decided Azmin should be investigated by MACC.

It cannot be the work of any branch of government intel or special assignment units.

If Taib had OK the plan, it would have been timely as fingers will point to Anwar and it had long been anticipated something would happen after Raya.

However, it will not stop Latheefa and in fact, it could make her more determined. This ruled out one of the Gods.

Daim?

So it is not Anwar, not Mahathir, not Taib, could it be Daim?

Daim have been quiet and minding his focus on the economy of the country, whacking at Guan Eng and getting sabotaged by him. It would seemed he has distanced himself from politics.

Remember that in April, Daim requested 6 months more to deliver on the promise. By right, he has no time to play political games.

That is unless his 6 months promise meant to solve the political impasse of the PH government that hinders the restructuring and process of economic recovery policies. There seemed to be a lack in priority in the PH government with each Minister pursuing their own agenda and not in concert with the rest of cabinet members.

Daim would spot Azmin's incompetency. He has been more a hangers on than actually able to make hard decision and put together and implement plans. In Selangor, he became MB with the support of PAS and claim achievement from the effort of Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim.

While there could be motivation to throw Azmin under the bus, it would not make sense for him to do so just to replace Azmin.

What is the motivation?

Muhyiddin?

Since it is difficult to figure out what the Gods could have done, it could have been the work of the lesser gods.

Muhyiddin have the motive to do the number on Azmin. While he maintain a steady exterior and kept his narrative as consistent with principles, the now known manuvering of Muhyiddin against Najib means he is capable of throwing stones and hiding his hands.

For the month before Ramadhan, he was said to be returning lately at night ever so oftenly that the neighbours he passed through to his gate at Bukit Damansara could not stop noticing. Their concern have been his health condition.

It is said he is not accompanied by outsider, thus he could be more on social visits or conspiring with his factions.

However, to think he is conspiring something, it is over stating his politics.

After the open quarrel with Mahathir in the emergency PPBM meeting, he had no traction and support from the party and members to take on Mahathir, except perhaps the support among PPBM Johor.

That quarrel open himself vulnerable to Mahathir who will see him as a threat or as the Malay saying, gunting dala lipatan or scissor within the folded clothes.

One would not be surprise Mahathir will reshuffle cabinet to replace him at Home Affairs with Mukhriz and have the likes of Deputy Minister of Finance, Dato Amiruddin Hamzah to replace Mukhriz as Kedah MB.

It is laughable but Mahathir could go to the extent of challenging him for PPBM Presidency to oust him.

Muhyiddin may have given up and do a scorch earth strategy. Apparently ROS instructed PPBM to hold their AGM before mid-July or run risk of being closed up. The party was established in 2016 and it has yet do a proper AGM.

If Muhyiddin has a hand in Azmin's affair, he could be using some outfit with no attachment to Mahathir or his appointed man in Home Ministry. It explains for the rather sloppy execution.

By doing so, it helps Anwar without him knowing. He could just crossover to PKR and retire in peace. It is not only Muhyiddin that is frustrated with Mahathir, Shafie Apdal too.

Dissolve or not to dissolve?

According to Raja Petra's posting, Anwar has 140 and Mahathir has 40. If Mahathir does nothing, Anwar could be Prime Minister before Christmas or earlier. Omigod ... massive amount of funds will the country as no investors have any inkling of confidence with Anwar's management of the economy.

The only caution is it is not as simple as what was said.

Logically speaking, Mahathir could not single handedly reshuffle cabinet without consulting with his fellow PH members of the Presidential Council. He cannot afford to risk PPBM hold on power to change MB of Kedah.

And, he must be willing to do something drastic like calling a snap election. Why would he do so when it is not to his advantage as UMNO-PAS could regain power with the UMNO frogs that joined PPBM serve the purpose to reinvigorate the party?

He could remain status quo as PKR and DAP is not willing to risk losing power so there will not be any move against Mahathir.

But then there have been a twist over night when Papagomo asked whats wrong with supporting Mohamed Hasan working together with Mahathir for sake ummah unity?

It is expected Mahathir will be making moves upon his return and many drastic actions within the next 10 days including massive buying of MPs. However, it will not be just the non-supporter. The supporting MPs may want to be paid too, isn't it?

Its not so simple.

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