Sabah Love Triangle Can Anwar Make The Math Work

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Pakatan Harapan chairperson Anwar Ibrahim will have his work cut out for him in the upcoming Sabah state election.
The prime minister wants his coalition's partners, BN and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), to avoid three-cornered fights, but with 73 seats up for grabs, this will require major negotiations.
United Sabah National Organisation (Usno) president Pandikar Amin Mulia revealed today that GRS is maintaining its plan to contest more than 50 seats in the election.
Harapan parties PKR, DAP, and Amanah have individually said they are eyeing at least 13, 10, and five seats respectively, or a minimum of 28 seats.
ADSThis is not yet taking into account Harapan's fourth party Upko - which has not publicly expressed how many seats it wants to contest.
Even before taking BN into consideration, this means that GRS and Harapan may potentially clash in at least five seats, with none to spare.
The math becomes more complicated when BN comes into the mix. The coalition is planning to contest at least 25 seats.
Incumbency formula
If the Madani coalition's incumbency formula from elections in the peninsula is used - based on the outcome of the last election - GRS has 24 seats, BN 14, and Harapan nine.
This then leaves 25 seats that the three coalitions can negotiate for.
However, with BN and GRS at complete odds with each other, there is no indication yet that the incumbency formula is viable in Sabah.
The Sabah election is expected to be called any time now, although Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Noor does have the option of waiting until the state legislature automatically dissolves on Nov 11.
In such a scenario, the election must be held by Jan 10 next year at the latest. Anwar will have until then to cut a deal that placates both GRS and BN. - Mkini

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