In Johor Harapan Struggles For A New Order After Slaying Goliath

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JOHOR POLLS | For decades, the model to victory for Pakatan Harapan and its opposition predecessors has been to be a courageous voice in the face of oppression - the Goliath that was the then repressive BN government.
While Harapan was triumphant when it slew Goliath in the 2018 general election, its formula for victory died with it.
Johor DAP chief Liew Chin Tong (above) acknowledged that the opposition coalition is now struggling to find a new model and the upcoming Johor election may offer some clues for their way forward.
"Our long-term narrative has always been that we fight for the people, we have always been the most daring one, we play a David vs Goliath role.
"But Goliath died in 2018. DAP particularly and our allies were seen as heroes just for speaking out because most people were living in fear.
"When people were living in fear, we were their champions. People look to us as champions.
"But I think that model ended with Umno’s collapse. People are looking at us (now) and demanding that the opposition actually act as a government and be prepared to govern, be prepared to offer long-term solutions.
"I think we are struggling over the last few years. The old has died but the new one hasn't raised," he said.
Liew said the Johor polls will determine if the opposition remains stuck in the old situation or set the ball rolling for a new direction.
Likewise, he said it will also determine whether Umno will be able to restore the old order.
Counteracting Umno's fixed deposit
He noted that Johor will be political parties’ first time facing a new reality of automatic voter registration and a lower voting age of 18, which will add around 750,000 new voters to 2.59 million compared to 2018.
The former deputy minister said Umno has around 500,000 "hardcore" voters in Johor and the willingness of the new voters to hit the polls and counteract Umno's base will determine the outcome of the election.
"We have to acknowledge that Umno has a 500,000 base and they won't go away although this base is not expanding, this base has also not shrunk much, so they are having the same base.
"While the rest, whether they are motivated to vote will give a huge consequence on the outcome of the election.
"If eventually, the total voter turnout is less than one million, then we can be quite sure Umno will win big. But if the total turnout is more than 1.8 million or two million, then the chances of Umno winning are quite slim," he said.
In the 2018 general election, around 1.5 million Johor voters from about 1.8 million eligible electors cast their votes.
Liew said the primary objective is to deny Umno a two-thirds majority. There are 56 seats in the Johor assembly. Twenty-four seats are needed for a simple majority while a supermajority will require 37 seats.
The former MP and senator said while Umno boasts that it can win between 37 to 42 seats in the Johor polls, only 23 seats are deemed to be solid for the Malay nationalist party.
Liew said the remaining 33 seats - enough to form a government with a simple majority - are battlegrounds.
"Umno kept on telling people BN can win a two-thirds majority. So, the primary objective of this election is to deny that. To make sure Umno wins, let's say only 23 seats.
"What will be the outcome will really depend on the election day, but the point is, if Umno is denied and Umno only wins 23 seats, we may still have a chance to form a government," he said.
The semi-rural challenge
For the DAP, Liew said their challenges are two folds - firstly to capture voters across racial lines in mixed urban seats and secondly, to win in semi-rural areas.
He pointed out that even for Johor Jaya which is located within the southern Johor metropolitan which is deemed DAP's sphere of influence, it is considered a vulnerable seat.
"Johor Jaya is a seat that has always been deemed as a vulnerable seat for DAP because it is a very mixed seat. Half of the voters are Malays, half are non-Malays. Winning those seats are tough," he said.
Likewise, he said semi-rural DAP seats such as Yong Peng, Paloh, Bekok, Jementah and Pekan Nanas are also a challenge.
While there are substantial Chinese voters in these seats, the dynamics are different from an urban seat due to their semi-rural make-up.
"There is a town there but there is also a rural setting around the town. These seats are very hard to defend because the economic basis of these areas is very different from the urban areas.
"The economic basis is very much agricultural and plantations. Young people don't stay in their constituency. They work in Singapore or Kuala Lumpur.
"So, in those places, the organisational structure of Umno, MCA and MIC might still remain, and it is not easy to fight the structure of BN in these small towns," he said.
He said unless there is a holiday or people are motivated to come back, they will impact the voter turnout and Harapan's support level.
This was amid a surge in Covid-19 cases due to the Omicron variant.
Liew added that Harapan partners also have reasonable strength in central and northern Johor such as state seats within Simpang Renggam, Batu Pahat, Sri Gading, Pagoh, and Muar but said that they have not been easy, pointing out that he lost narrowly in Ayer Hitam in the 2018 general election.
The only area that has beyond Harapan's reach is Umno's impenetrable stronghold in Eastern Johor that covered state seats within Mersing, Kota Tinggi, Pengerang and Tenggara.
Seen as an Umno stronghold with up to 90 per cent majority Malay voters, the four Eastern Johor parliament seats - comprising eight state seats - are currently represented by three ministers and one former minister of the Perikatan Nasional-BN government.
Avoiding a repeat of Malacca
Acknowledging the uphill battle, Liew said Harapan has taken stock of the setback it suffered in last year's Malacca polls.
"In Malacca, one decision that bogged down Harapan was actually what logo to use? In Johor, we ensured that it was resolved very early.
"It was not to the satisfaction of everyone but at least there was a decision. Having a decision is very important because people down the line will be able to print T-shirts, flags, merchandise,” he said.
Amanah and DAP are set to contest using the Harapan logo while PKR will use their own logo.
He said during the Malacca polls, seat negotiations also dragged on until the very last minute, but the Harapan parties resolved their negotiations for Johor within a week after the state assembly was dissolved.
"Subsequently DAP, Amanah and Muda also settled seat deal. It is now only between Muda and PKR that they have to sort it out later.
"Thinking through the process - we acted much earlier. Whether that is sufficient to win the elections, is left to be seen," he said.
Liew added that the indication is PKR will also want to use its own logo for the general election.
He acknowledged that DAP national organising secretary Anthony Loke had also mooted a similar position as PKR - for all parties to sue their respective logos.
Liew said their central leadership ultimately decided to stick with the Harapan common logo.
"We want to use the Harapan logo because we believe in the coalition effect. We believe that each of us fighting on our own would not be better than we fighting as a coalition.
"As a coalition, we will have weaknesses but we will also have strengths. DAP and Amanah believe our strength outweighs our weaknesses," he said.
However, he said DAP and Amanah respect PKR's decision.
High stakes for all actors
Liew said all political forces acknowledge that the Johor polls will be a crucial battle.
"It is crucial to Bersatu because it is a do-or-die, it is crucial for Najib Abdul Razak and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi's camp in Umno because if they win hands down, they will be able to force Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob to call a general election immediately after Hari Raya (May 3)," he said.
For Harapan, Liew said the coalition must prove that it can remain relevant in a crowded field.
"You have Muda, Pejuang, Warisan and all other actors sensing that there is a vacuum that must be filled.
"Whether Harapan can fill the vacuum itself through rejuvenation, through a rethinking of strategies, rethinking of narratives, placing the right people at the right place, this is a major challenge for Harapan.
"If Harapan cannot rejuvenate itself, then the vacuum will be taken up by other parties. There is a political vacuum in terms of leadership, in terms of public acceptance, but at the same time, the challenge is on everyone," he said.
PKR is expected to contest 20 seats while Amanah will do battle in 16 and DAP in 14. Their strategic partner Muda is expected to contest in six.
BN and PN also intend to contest in all 56 seats. Pejuang plans to contest in 42 while Warisan is eyeing three.
Johoreans go to the polls on March 12. The nomination day is set for Feb 26. - Mkini

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