Final Dash In Malacca As Pn Chips At Bn Harapan Paints Dysfunctional Duo

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MALACCA POLLS | For decades, Malacca has been an impenetrable Umno fortress and the opposition's sphere of influence has always been confined to Malacca town and its surrounding areas.
But in 2018, the opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan made unprecedented gains, capturing most of central Malacca, garnering 15 out of the 28 state seats to form the new state government, until its collapse in 2020 due to defections.
Harapan, at the time, had several factors working in its favour. BN and in particular Umno, was reeling from an internal split. Its splinter Bersatu threw its support behind the opposition.
With former premier Najib Abdul Razak at the helm, Umno was viewed to be increasingly corrupt amid his multi-billion ringgit 1MDB scandal.
BN was, for the first time in 2018, defeated in Malacca. But despite the unprecedented public discontent, Umno retained the rural east and west, a testament to how entrenched the party is.

Umno only ceded four seats - Telok Mas and Paya Rumput to Bersatu, Durian Tunggal to Amanah and Rembia to PKR. It retained 13 out of the 17 seats won in 2013.

MCA and MIC which only held four seats were wiped out. MCA lost Kelebang and Machap Jaya to PKR and Bemban to DAP. DAP also picked up Gadek from MIC.
Going into the 2021 snap polls, Harapan is struggling to maintain those gains and risks being pushed back to the central coast.
The advantages it rode on in 2018 are gone. Instead, it is now faced with the likelihood of a depressed turnout due to the Covid-19 pandemic, public disillusionment and also grassroots anger over PKR and Amanah's decision to field Umno defectors Idris Haron and Nor Azman Hassan in the snap polls.
Harapan plays firefighter
DAP, in particular, spent most part of the early campaign period in damage control mode, explaining that it was outvoted by Amanah and PKR on the matter and imploring its support base not to boycott the polls.
"We understand the unhappiness among our supporters on this decision and we acknowledge that but we have tried our best to convince them that there are larger issues at stake,” DAP national organising secretary Anthony Loke had said on the second day of campaigning.

Harapan's Asahan candidate Idris Haron
The election campaign started on Nov 8 and concludes on Nov 19. Malaccans will go to the polls the following day.
Opponents, particularly MCA used the issue as DAP's kryptonite, painting Harapan as "frog-lovers" and to date, continues to hammer on the issue.
Ironically, MCA's partner Umno also fielded PKR defector Muhammad Jailani Khamis as a BN candidate in Rembia.
Meanwhile, PKR too had its own firefighting to do during early campaigning as party grassroots rebelled against the central leadership's decision to drop incumbent Machap Jaya assemblyperson Ginie Lim as a candidate.
PKR information chief Shamsul Iskandar Mohd Akin also acknowledged having to do his own firefighting after party grassroots were upset at his candidacy in Paya Rumput, having expected a local to be fielded.
With the challenges faced by Harapan and Umno's entrenched position based on its past track record, the state polls appear to be BN's to lose.

BN deputy chair Mohamad Hasan and Lendu candidate Sulaiman Md Ali
But this election isn't like any in the past. A third coalition - PN, has entered the fray, altering how the parties battle.
New dynamics
PN, like Harapan, got off to a sluggish start. Bersatu sources told Malaysiakini that the central leadership was alarmed at how PN's campaign was progressing in the early days, prompting them to intervene.
PN chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin even lamented that it appeared as if his coalition wasn't contesting in the election and spent the next days inspecting the machinery in Malacca.
Since then, PN has poured a copious amount of resources, from sleek candidate videos on social media and advertisements to a fleet of LED-mounted trucks to promote their candidate on the big screen.

Realising Umno's formidable position, PN sought to paint the party as self-interested and corrupt - a message usually heard in Harapan's campaigns. But PN believes it has the Malay Muslim credentials to wrest the rural Malay vote from Umno.

PN comprises Bersatu, PAS and Gerakan. While Gerakan is not expected to make much impact, PAS has a small but significant and loyal support base.
PAS went solo in the 2018 general election and on average, managed to garner around 15 percent of the votes.
With voters split among three coalitions, PAS is banking on Bersatu to deliver the rest to get PN across the finishing line.
However, PAS found its Islamic credentials under threat when at the federal level, the BN-led Putrajaya decided to allow whiskey brand Timah to keep its name despite PAS' objections. The Islamist party claimed the name confused Muslims.
Playing race and religion card

The very next day, PAS announced a ban on lottery shops in Kedah and also plans to scale back the sale of liquor including in rural parts of duty-free Langkawi.

It was an extremely touchy subject to PAS, with its leaders lashing out at a reporter for asking them about the cabinet decision.

"The timing of the ban is of course conveniently coincidental to the Malacca election. 
"PN must have thought that by imposing the ban in Kedah, it could reinforce its religious credentials and thereby galvanise its potential Malay-Muslim supporters to come out to vote, thus raising its winning prospects," political analyst Oh Ei Sun told Malaysiakini.
Awang Azman Awang Pawi, an associate professor at Universiti Malaysia's Department of Socioculture, Academy of Malay Studies, concurred that the move will be popular among PAS' support base.
"But there's no guarantee that it will receive support from the wider Malacca voters as they are more moderate and accustomed to a multi-racial life," he told Malaysiakini.
Meanwhile, Harapan has used similar issues to its advantage.
In a virtual ceramah last Saturday, DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng used PAS' objections on the Timah issue and the move by the Federal Territories Ministry, which is controlled by Umno, to ban hard liquor from sundry shops as examples of BN and PN indulging in racial sentiment and extremism.
After a shaky start, Harapan has also formulated a more cohesive message, painting BN and PN as dysfunctional, going at each other's throats despite being part of the same federal coalition government.
"On our side, there is no internal clash, unlike our opponents. They're not only fighting against Harapan but among themselves," Lim declared, questioning their ability to govern and tackle the Covid-19 pandemic.

Former chief minister Adly Zahari
Harapan has also rallied behind their soft-spoken chief ministerial candidate Adly Zahari who enjoys a good reputation in the state.

“We are proud that our former chief minister Adly is accepted by all races and he is seen to be a just leader,” Amanah president Mohamad Sabu said during the virtual ceramah, positioning him as different from the typical political warlords jostling for sand mining businesses, a source of patronage amid widespread reclamation in the state.
Turnout critical
Oh said non-Malay voters are unlikely to back BN or PN, despite some degree of disgruntlement at Harapan.
Fifty-seven-year-old Lee is one such voter. Lee, a Kelebang voter who only wanted to be known by his surname, voted for MCA in 2013 but switched to Harapan in 2018. However, he was visibly frustrated at the coalition.
"I am really disappointed at (Harapan chairperson) Anwar (Ibrahim) and the chaotic political situation has really made me upset. I don't want to read political news anymore," he said.
When asked which way he will vote, Lee replied: "Of course, Harapan. BN and PN are the same. People are angry with them for the economic issues created by them during the pandemic".
However, Harapan is mindful that there are also voters who may just decide not to vote.
Harapan has traditionally suffered when there is a low turnout as it is more reliant on younger voters, many of who are outstation.
BN voters who previously took a chance on Harapan despite reservations due to BN's scandals may also shift to PN.

A 26-year-old shop assistant who gave her name as Damini said her family of BN supporters took a chance on Harapan in 2018.

"But now I prefer PN. I'll support abah (Muhyiddin) because in the two years he was prime minister, I liked his style and the way he spoke," she said.
Challenging Umno's dominance
However, it is BN that PN stands the chance of inflicting the most damage on, considering they both appeal to the rural Malay vote.
PN has proven itself a wildcard, making the multi-cornered battle in the Malacca polls highly difficult to predict.
This is because depending on how much damage PN inflicts on BN, it could tip the balance in any direction.
In a three-cornered fight, if PN does minimal damage to BN, then BN is set for a landslide. If PN does moderate damage to BN but not enough to win, it could end up benefitting Harapan.
PN will need to wrest a sizeable number of BN voters in order to emerge victorious in Malacca on its own.
The parties also have had to struggle on how to reach out to voters amid a strict ban on physical campaigning due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which has also seen criticism from members of the federal ruling coalition.
This has led to election machinery across parties to start getting creative, exploiting whatever loopholes and the grey area they can find in the Election Commission's (EC) standard operating procedures.
Many were known to be having breakfast multiple times every morning at different warungs in their constituency in the hope of bumping into voters. Dining-in is not banned.

Harapan's Kelebang candidate Gue Teck and Harapan chief Anwar Ibrahim 
Other candidates will visit houses of worship on grounds that they are there to pray.
"We need to show our face to voters," said Bersatu's Bemban candidate Dr Yadzil Yaakub, "so, given the tight SOPs, what we can do is adjust accordingly."
According to Yadzil, he had to make use of the opportunity of having breakfast and praying at mosques to meet the people since they are barred from holding any official programmes.
Playing 'hide and seek'
These activities, however, were done discreetly by many who fear spot checks by authorities.

Harapan, for example, complained health authorities gate-crashed its presidential council meeting while a BN event attended by Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob was slapped with an RM20,000 fine.

One candidate who spoke to Malaysiakini on condition of anonymity said he would pretend to go shopping in order to meet voters.
To avoid detection, political parties were also seen employing counterintelligence tactics where they circulate their candidate's schedules that turn out to be fake to throw off health authorities' spot checks.
Other parties have decided not to share their schedule at all while some campaigners conceal their identity fully masked up as characters from Netflix's Squid Game series.

With only five days of campaigning left, Harapan will likely try to maintain its existing support base.

PKR has outlined what it believed is a viable path to victory, but it's a narrow one that will involve Idris and Nor Azman wresting Asahan and Pantai Kundor from BN for Harapan.
Meanwhile, BN, which has thus far remained confident, must fend off PN's attempts to chip away at its dominant position.
Malaccans will go to the polls on Nov 20 to elect 28 representatives to the state assembly, after a 12-day campaign.
The outcome of the Malacca polls will be crucial, as it could define coalition relations entering into the 15th general election due in 2023. - Mkini

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