17th Sabah Polls Analysis First Look Part 1

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Nearly two-thirds of Sabahan voters have spoken, with a turnout of 64.4 percent. This is just short of that of the 2020 state polls at 66.6 percent.
The message of more local representation was sent loud and clear, with only eight seats (or 11 percent) going to federal-based parties. Underscoring this is a clarion call for better infrastructure, basic services, and a stronger, more inclusive economy.
The incumbent GRS administration led by Hajiji Noor has been returned to power, although he did not win an outright majority, securing only 29 seats and eight short of a needed majority.
He brought the members of GRS (PGRS and PBS) together, the Sabah-first Upko with three victories, five independents, and the one seat of Pakatan Harapan together to form a government in the wee hours of the morning.
It remains unclear at this juncture whether Star with two seats, PAS and KDM each with one seat, and BN with six seats will become part of the government. Warisan appears poised to anchor the state opposition, once again.
Assessing my predictions
My broad predictions outlined before the polls proved largely correct, with a few seats off amid the high uncertainty and competitiveness, discussed below. A public accounting of my predictions on Friday night and the results Saturday by seat can be found here/on my website.
The factors outlined in my earlier piece – local party sentiment, incumbency, individual vulnerabilities, familiarity, party resources, ethnic loyalties and splitting, as well as youth engagement over social media - remain salient.
Hajiji Noor returns as Sabah’s chief ministerIn the final days of the campaign, the final driver of targeted funds/machinery advantaging the state incumbent GRS proved decisive in the many close/too-close-to-call seats.
It is important to appreciate that 11 (15 percent of the total) seats were won with majorities of five percent or less of the vote. Of these, two seats were won with one percent or less - Karambunai and Kukusan (the closest contests of 2020 as well).
Pintasan was won by a mere one percent. There are 18 seats (25 percent) won by less than 10 percent of the vote, reinforcing the competitiveness of the polls.
DAP bungkus: A core takeaway
There are two areas in my prediction analysis that need to be reviewed.
The Warisan Wave in urban areas (especially Kota Kinabalu) was strong, but it was even more powerful than I expected.
I returned to KK from fieldwork too late for a proper assessment of the capital in the last days of the campaign, but Warisan’s mammoth event in Sri Tanjong, Tawau, on Thursday and DAP’s under-enthusiastic flash mobs in Sandakan on the eve of polls confirmed that the Chinese swing was an overwhelming one.
Sabah DAP chief Ginger Phoong Jin ZheI incorrectly believed that the performing DAP assemblypersons in KK would withstand the swing. Instead, Ginger Phoong Jin Zhe and Jannie Lasimbang were knocked out.
For the urban areas, with large shares of Chinese voters, the candidate factor was less important. Urban voters sent a strong message of dissatisfaction to the DAP. An initial review points to a 40 percent swing away from DAP compared to recent polls (although a more detailed analysis of voting will follow in Part 2).
Sabah politics since 2013 has shown that Sabahan Chinese voters swing one way and send decisive messages. Warisan’s push for state rights and calling out corruption captured support this time, especially with an overpromise of being able to form the government.
The Sabah DAP “bungkus” continues a trend of Chinese erosion of support, as many of the urban areas also had slightly lower turnout, highlighting an additional decline in support.
This voting pattern speaks to a continued “MCA-isation” of the DAP, where voters punish the party for not delivering on promises and professed principles.
There were specific actions the party was punished for. Beyond the “talk-down” discourse of DAP’s federal leaders in their Sabah campaign, opportunities for Sabah DAP to pull out of the GRS government when the mining scandal first broke and over the appeal of the 40 percent revenue decision were lost.
Similarly, DAP could have opted for a go-it-alone campaign with their own flag but stayed with the Anwar-led Harapan (which became the main target of voter anger) and paid an electoral price.
Sabah DAP leaders are now left to face the consequences of pressure from the federal level and the realities of being in a coalition where they are expected to follow the federal lead.
Inevitably, the result calls for serious reflection on the party’s role within the Harapan coalition and Sabah DAP’s autonomy.
Youth drivers: Push for change
The second feature of the review was the strength of the youth push for change. While acknowledging it as a critical force in the campaign, it was stronger in some areas/seats than others than I expected.
Based on a preliminary look at voting patterns, it is clear that younger Sabahans put PAS into the legislature in Karambunai (41 percent of the voters under 30), independent Fairuz Reddan in Pintasan, and Jordan Ellron in Tulid.
It was also younger voters who were behind Warisan victories along the east coast in seats like Sungai Sibuga, Sekong, Silam, and Segama, as well as the west coast seats of Bongawan and Usukan.
Warisan supportersYoung voters made an electoral mark and will continue to do so. Social media was important for PAS’ victory, but it affected all of these races where the generation issue mattered.
The GRS-led government will need to keep being attuned to the needs of younger voters, who comprised the largest share of fence sitters; when Sabahans came out to vote, they increasingly put younger/opposition representatives into office.
Less acknowledged developments
Let me highlight three additional broad developments from the results.
First, political family power was curbed. The Bahanda family lost all three seats it contested in northern Sabah - Matunggong, Bandau, and Tanjong Kapor.
Their campaign focused on resources, and local Rungus ethnic sentiment was not as successful as in the past, suggesting that an attempt to expand their political base has been undercut.
Similarly, two important members of Sabah governor Musa Aman’s political family lost their seats - Yamani Hafez Musa in Sindumin and Annuar Ayub in Liawan, although in the latter, Nik Nadzri Nik Zawawi, remains connected to the family.
Yamani Hafez Musa, son of Sabah governer Musa AmanOther family members were successful in these elections, notably in Bingkor and Membakut.
Second, those spurned by party leaders for their service in the last legislature received empathetic electoral support. Three of the independent candidates who won did so because they were dropped by GRS leadership: Fairuz Reddan in Pintasan, Maijol Mahap in Bandau, and Rina Jainal in Kukusan.
They have since landed back in the same camp, stronger for the experience. Emotions and sentiments around individuals mattered in this campaign.
Third, the corruption scandal had little electoral impact. Only one of those allegedly involved in the mining corruption scandal directly received a lower majority than in 2020 -Joachim Gunsalam in Kundasang.
Only one lost his seat - Ellron Alfred Angin in Sook, although this was driven by the youth generation push of Arthur Kurup, as mentioned above, rather than corruption.
Others, such as Jeffrey Kitingan and Masidi Manjun, received higher majorities, with the proxy family members of both Shahelmey Yayha and Andi Suryady winning their seats. Corruption remains less salient in rural and semi-rural areas in Sabah, as livelihoods have more impact.
Campaign snapshot assessment:
Best campaign: Upko’s “Sabah First”. With only a couple of weeks to get off the ground, this principles-centred campaign gained traction and secured the party three seats, two of these in highly competitive races.
It did, however, not have the time and resources to gain traction to win more of the 25 seats the party contested. Party president Ewon Benedick secured the second-highest majority in the election in Kadamaian, after Bugaya, where Warisan’s incumbent Jamil Hamzah won.
Upko leadersRunner-up best campaign: PAS’ Aliakbar Gulasan pipped Umno in Karambunai by a slim 365 votes, less than one percent of votes cast. Aliakbar’s dynamic underdog campaign was primarily on social media, focused on likability and less on his party. He targeted younger voters and came into office with goodwill.
Most improved players: Upko’s Mohina Sidom running in Kuamut and independent Miha @ Ismail Ayob in Lamag. Both came very close to unseating warlords in the interior of Masuing Banah (457 votes) and Bung Moktar Radin (132 votes), respectively. Resources would have made a difference in these campaigns.
Worst Campaign: PKR’s “PMX Sayang Sabah” campaign. The decision to centre the campaign around the prime minister was a mistake. PKR’s result - the one seat from a recent PGRS member and former Umno member - speaks to serious challenges for the party ahead in Sabah and nationally.
Runner-up worst campaign: Bersatu. The party’s internal divisions affected its ground campaign and eroded any chances of victory in what could have been competitive seats such as Sugut.
Main strategic mistake: The placement of PKR’s Ruji Ubi, who has made important national contributions and given his technocratic expertise, will continue to do so, into Merotai was a miscalculation, as he lost by 4,016 votes despite significant resources and federal support.
Uncertain outcome for Sabahans: Not status quo
The dust over the polls will continue to settle. Yet, there remains haze. Namely, the electoral results overall point to uncertainty for Sabahans. The campaign and results reaffirmed that Sabahans want changes in federal-state relations to infrastructure and livelihood deliverables. Yet, no party/coalition won outright.
Elite political deals over seats had minimal impact on outcomes, despite months spent in negotiations and, in part, due to a failure to keep to the deals. Sadly, too little of the campaign was spent discussing concrete solutions to address Sabah’s challenges.
No party/coalition should be overconfident about their results, including GRS.
Looking ahead, the 40 percent revenue negotiation, the state cabinet composition, and the lessons taken by elites about these polls will be pivotal. The role that the opposition will play is equally important in impacting pressures on deliverables.
While many may think the outcome is a status quo result, the situation is in fact far from this; voting in the 17th state election speaks to growing aspirations and greater expectations. The path ahead for Sabah’s next government will be challenging, arguably even more challenging than the last one. - Mkini
BRIDGET WELSH is an honorary research associate of the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute, a senior research associate at Hu Fu Centre for East Asia Democratic Studies, and a senior associate fellow at The Habibie Centre. Her writings can be found at bridgetwelsh.com.
She is on the ground in Sabah researching the polls, and her written analysis can be found exclusively in Malaysiakini and through her self-funded podcast Kerusi Panas Sabah.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.

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