Will Zahid S Gamble Pay Off Or Tank

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When Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob walked to the podium to make his short address yesterday, he was not a picture of confidence, but one of doubt and uncertainty. Even by comparison to his usual lack-lustre performance, it was poor.
He did not come across as convincing in his announcement of the dissolution of Parliament, his reasons seemed weak and vague, and it was as if he was almost forced to make an announcement against his better judgment and will.
As he made the announcement, there were ominous announcements at the bottom of the TV screen of rivers at dangerous levels in the east coast states of Peninsular Malaysia. Later reports showed floods in parts of Sarawak.
Ismail Sabri (above, right) previously maintained, over and over again, that the dissolution of Parliament was his own prerogative as prime minister and could not be taken away from him.
But in the final analysis, he wasn’t man enough to stand up to the Umno crowd who wanted an early election.
That the Agong has assented to the dissolution indicates His Majesty’s discretion has been exercised in favour of the executive.
That shows the ruler is not prepared to go against the recommendations of the prime minister which may be in line with His Majesty’s position as a constitutional monarch.
An early election would benefit, not Umno, not the country, not the people, not Ismail Sabri, but Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (above, left)and his allies - whose court cases are likely to be concluded before the end of this year, with a possible conviction which will lose him his post as Umno chief.
That’s why the elections are so important for Zahid. If Umno wins big and Zahid becomes the prime minister, then that changes the equation in his favour.
As PM, or at least as a person who will influence whoever might be PM, Zahid will have considerable power, so much so, he may affect the course of the court cases against him.
Zahid’s greater influence
Remember the Registrar of Societies already ruled that the move to hold Umno’s party elections up to six months after the general elections is legal. That will mean Zahid stays as Umno president up to then.
And before the election, as Umno president, Zahid will have more influence than anyone else as to who stands for which seat, which will ensure his supporters are the ones who will, by and large, come into power.
That will concomitantly benefit all those Umno stalwarts within the court cluster, of which the main one is former PM and Zahid’s predecessor as president of Umno, Najib Abdul Razak, who is convicted and now in jail and who has already sought a royal pardon.
That raises the spectre of a possible pardon for Najib even before he has served a reasonable time in prison. Najib faces several other potentially more serious charges in court proceedings which are ongoing, and which could result in long prison sentences.
If, however, the election were held next year, Zahid will be disqualified from holding office if he is convicted in the meantime, which may result in Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan succeeding him.
Ismail Sabri, as the party vice-president with the largest number of votes, will probably rise to become deputy president under this scenario.
Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob announcing dissolution of ParliamentThus, an early election is not in the interest of Ismail Sabri or even Umno because it benefits only the court cluster within Umno.
It is extremely worrisome that these people have succeeded in their quest for an early election for it will be the worst parts of Umno who are likely to be in power if they come out on top after the 15th general election.
At the same time, holding a general election in the midst of what is potentially a bad monsoon period is likely to have a severe and unforgiving backlash against Umno by the electorate, and the very electorate that Umno is banking on to win.
It is the east coast states and the Malay heartland which are most likely to be affected by the impending monsoons and it is these regions where voter turnout is likely to be low.
But it will be presumptuous to assume those who turn out to vote will pick Umno under the circumstances - they may not.
Gamble may favour Harapan
It is a massive, needless wager that Umno is taking. Pakatan Harapan is already reeling from a number of factors which are not likely to change much if an election is held at the end of the full five-year parliamentary term.
By holding an early election to save the skins of Zahid and the court cluster, Umno has provided a useful rallying point for Harapan - a corrupt Umno filled with corrupt leaders in positions of power and influence who will stoop to anything to remain in power, including picking the worst possible time for an election to be held - right in the middle of a literal storm with torrential rain and floods.
The outcome of Zahid’s gamble, a winner-takes-all punt, where he has bet the fate of the party and the nation to save his own hide, will rest squarely in the hands of all of us Malaysians, monsoon or no monsoon.
How can an electorate support such an irresponsible and self-serving gang of leaders? How can they vote for an Umno which puts them through this kind of difficulty?
And can anyone believe that such a government, if by some twist of fate, comes into power, will serve the people, or even the Malays? They have shown such disdain and insensitivity towards the needs of the rakyat and instead a massive self-interest.
At first glance, Zahid and Umno may well lose this dangerous gamble, which will be the best possible outcome for the country and the people right now, no matter what the other permutations and combinations are. - Mkini
P GUNASEGARAM is a former editor for online and print news publications, head of equity research, and an independent writer and analyst.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.

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