What If Pas Joins Madani Govt

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This is not as wild as it sounds.
If Anwar Ibrahim could work with his sworn enemy Dr Mahathir Mohamad to unseat the corrupt Najib Abdul Razak’s BN government in 2018 and then 2022 conspire with BN’s Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to form a coalition government, anything is possible.
Remember, after the May 13 racial riots in 1969, Najib’s father Abdul Razak Hussein pushed hard for a grand coalition in 1974 and got it with BN. All major parties were in, except for Lim Kit Siang’s DAP and the Sarawak National Party.
With most of the opposition folded into it, BN won the 1974 elections easily, taking 135 out of 154 seats for a massive 88 percent control of Parliament.
Perhaps Anwar is seeking to emulate or even surpass this fantastic feat, this time with DAP in the fold.
How likely is this grand coalition? Not unlikely. Anwar has already said that he does not rule out PAS joining the government if certain policy conditions are met.
Prepared to talk
In an interview with Time Magazine, published online in October last year, Anwar confirmed that an offer was indeed made to PAS to join his administration.
“On whether we are prepared to engage with them, of course we are. And I’ve sent (an invitation) to them... Yes, I have been open to the idea from the beginning. After all, this is a unity government and we do what is best for our country,” he said.
PAS has turned down the offer at least twice. But it is hard to resist that persistent temptation which leans on the doorbell incessantly. In a future election, PAS is positioned better than any of the other Malay parties and multiracial but Malay-dominant PKR.
If it translates into votes, they would likely get the most Malay seats. That puts them in line at least for the post of deputy prime minister this time and even a future prime ministership - they have never been this close before to the top. And PAS has patience.
As the person who forged this grand coalition, Anwar is ensured of another term - that’s enough for him.
What happens after that? If PAS continues on a roll in terms of Malay support - remember it’s the strongest Malay party now accounting for 43 seats - then the prime ministership is almost assured for PAS.
Bersatu holds another 31 seats in the Perikatan Nasional coalition which includes PAS, making a total of 74 largely Malay seats that PAS and Bersatu can command if all of them are in that grand coalition.
PAS could wield a lot of power
The power that they wield must be quite obvious to the PAS leadership, including its president Abdul Hadi Awang, generally thought to be the intransigent one when it comes to joining the Madani coalition government. But power is a very strong pull.
Anwar is an Islamist but that does not make him an extremist. He wants at a minimum for Islamic values to take precedence. How else do you explain him supporting that controversial Mufti Bill? In that, he is one with PAS.
That is why he is willing to go for a pardon and/or discharge not amounting to an acquittal for Najib and supporting a discharge not amounting to an acquittal for Zahid.
Never mind that Najib is a convicted criminal, and there are many questions over Zahid, the aim of Malay and Muslim unity is much more exalted and deserves to be put above anything else, or so the thought must be.
In terms of timing, it will have to be much closer to the election for maximum effect. Much like Razak in 1974, the announcement will likely be in the election year, probably 2027.
It won’t be smooth sailing though.
There are two thorny and potentially tough problems. What happens to Muhyiddin Yassin’s Bersatu, PAS’ collaborator in PN? Muhyiddin still wants to be prime minister for the second time. And what will DAP do? Leave the coalition?
As the weaker of the two, Muhyiddin will have to make way for PAS in the coalition for the deputy prime minister’s seat, which will mean three deputies, the other two being for Umno and for Sarawak.
Will Muhyiddin go it alone?
If not, Muhyiddin will go it alone, which will be a disaster for him because Bersatu won’t amount to much without PAS. Remember that Bersatu even under Mahathir won just 13 seats in 2018, after contesting 52, the lowest win rate among Pakatan Harapan parties, even that coming largely from its alliance within Harapan.
Muhyiddin will likely do worse than that without PAS. If Muhyiddin does not play ball, PAS can go it alone, and potentially be much stronger as a result, giving it even more power. Bersatu is not an insurmountable problem.
After having tasted power and its privileges, DAP won’t give that up easily, especially when they realise that they can’t fight a united Malay/Muslim front. Even if they leave, the new front will have enough seats to be in power.
They will opt to remain in and play a role in government, reduced by the entry of PAS and perhaps Bersatu. DAP will be the new MCA in the grand coalition, fighting for Chinese votes to remain relevant.
Danger of PKR withering
What about PKR? If Malay voters are not ready for multiracialism, as they are likely to be post-2018, PKR’s support could wane. They may have to wait for some distant time in future for their fortunes to improve if they ever do.
Note that PKR has no deputy prime minister. Why? What happens if Anwar goes? Will a PKR person be PM? Does not look likely, does it? A grim scenario. Anwar has effectively abandoned his own party for Malay unity.
Sabah and Sarawak are likely to throw their fortunes with whoever wins strongly in the peninsula, and that would be the grand coalition. If they have leverage, they will use it to the hilt like they are doing now but their leverage will likely reduce.
It will be a return to the good (bad?) old times when Malay/Muslim unity will help keep the Malay parties in political power, taken together with past gerrymandering which gives Malays disproportionately high voting power.
One can only hope that the new Malay/Muslim polity will exercise their rediscovered power equitably while the non-Malay body politic will have to push for fairness and equity but with persuasion rather than force or threats.
What will stop this from happening? Well, Malay disunity of course. Welcome to Malaysia’s brave new world again and hope for the best in future. - Mkini
P GUNASEGARAM says a succession of poor, unprincipled prime ministers have set Malaysia back tremendously.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.

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