Understanding Terrorism And Attacks In Lebanon

---

Terrorism is characterised as the illegal application of force and intimidation, particularly targeting civilians, to attain political objectives.
The overarching definition of terrorism encompasses the strategic deployment of violence to instil widespread fear within a population, thus facilitating the realisation of political goals.
Furthermore, the FBI differentiates between international terrorism, which involves violent actions perpetrated by individuals or groups motivated by foreign terrorist entities, and domestic terrorism, which refers to violent acts carried out by individuals or groups aiming to promote ideological objectives rooted in domestic factors.
Additionally, it entails the employment of violence against non-combatants to fulfil political or ideological aspirations, frequently occurring during periods of peace or amid warfare.
ADSThe 9/11 attacks
The recent commemoration of the 9/11 attacks in the United States marked the anniversary of what is widely regarded as the most lethal terrorist incident of the century.
In the aftermath, terrorist organisations and their affiliates have adapted and transformed, presenting significant challenges for intelligence and security agencies tasked with monitoring their activities.
Typically, these agencies develop strategies only after terrorist attacks occur, which limits their ability to pre-emptively understand the operational methods employed by these groups.
Terrorism attacks on the New York World Trade Centre on Sept 11, 2001ADSThe recent attacks on Hezbollah by Israel in Lebanon have changed that perception.
Notably, Malaysia does not officially classify Hezbollah as a terrorist entity, in contrast to several nations such as the US, the European Union, and Canada, which have designated it as a terrorist group. Malaysia opts to maintain diplomatic relations with Lebanon, where Hezbollah plays a crucial role both politically and militarily.
This situation prompts an inquiry into whether Malaysian intelligence and security agencies might adopt the counter-terrorism strategies employed by Israel in Lebanon, or if there exists a risk that terrorist groups within Malaysia could replicate Israeli tactics against our leaders and security forces, including the police.
Lebanon
In recent days, Lebanon has witnessed a series of lethal assaults involving explosive devices, which Lebanese authorities have attributed to Israel. Over two days, detonations from pagers and walkie-talkies resulted in considerable casualties.
The initial wave of attacks focused on pagers, claiming the lives of at least 12 individuals and injuring thousands more. The subsequent day saw walkie-talkies explode, leading to a minimum of 20 fatalities and over 450 injuries.
Fragment from a detonated pagerThese assaults predominantly targeted members of Hezbollah, a significant militant group and political entity in Lebanon that is backed by Iran.
Although Israel has not formally acknowledged responsibility, there is a prevailing belief that Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, orchestrated these operations.
ADSThis series of attacks is perceived as a showcase of Israel’s technological prowess and a tactical manoeuvre in the ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah. The incidents have heightened concerns regarding escalating tensions in the region, with Lebanon’s foreign minister expressing apprehensions about the possibility of a war.
The explosions have been characterised as one of the most significant security breaches for Hezbollah. Both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah have condemned the attacks, with the militants pledging to retaliate.
These developments underscore the intricate and ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, further intensifying regional tensions and raising alarms about potential escalation.
The trends
The evolution of modern terrorism presents a complex and multifaceted narrative that has undergone significant transformations over the last few centuries. Current patterns in terrorism reveal a transition towards a broader and more decentralised array of violent extremism.
Mossad emblemA marked increase in right-wing extremism has been observed, particularly in the US and Europe, where such groups frequently espouse anti-government, racist, and xenophobic beliefs.
Historically, terrorism has manifested in cyclical waves, each spanning approximately 40 years. The ongoing wave, characterised by religious extremism, is in its third decade.
Should it adhere to the historical trend of previous waves, it may reach its conclusion by the mid-2020s, potentially paving the way for a subsequent wave.
The trajectory of future terrorism is influenced by five principal trends: diversity, decentralisation, democratisation, disinformation, and lethal tactics.
These trends indicate that terrorist organisations are becoming increasingly heterogeneous in their makeup, less centralised in their operational frameworks, more accessible to a wider demographic, more dependent on misinformation, and exhibiting heightened lethality.
Such developments underscore the dynamic nature of terrorism and the imperative for adaptive counter-strategies to address these emerging threats.
Technology and terrorism
Both terrorist organisations and intelligence agencies utilise cutting-edge technologies to gain a competitive advantage over the other.
Terrorist groups are increasingly engaging in cyber warfare to disrupt essential infrastructure, expropriate sensitive information, and instil fear within populations.
They utilise encrypted communication applications and dark web resources to organise their operations while evading detection.
Furthermore, social media and digital platforms serve as vital tools for propaganda dissemination, recruitment, and radicalisation efforts.
The use of drones for reconnaissance and offensive operations, along with the technological enhancement of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), has become commonplace.
Additionally, cryptocurrencies and online fundraising initiatives play a crucial role in financing their activities.
On the other hand, intelligence agencies employ advanced surveillance technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, to monitor communications and track the movements of terrorist entities.
These agencies are engaged in the development of sophisticated cyber defence systems and offensive strategies to mitigate cyber threats posed by terrorist organisations.
The application of big data analytics and predictive modelling is instrumental in identifying potential risks and thwarting attacks. Intelligence agencies also utilise these technologies for reconnaissance, surveillance, and precision strikes against key terrorist figures.
Moreover, there are ongoing efforts to counteract terrorist propaganda through digital campaigns and interventions on social media platforms.
This technological landscape creates a constantly evolving battlefield, compelling both parties to adapt and refine their strategies in response to one another’s actions.
Conclusion
The phenomenon of terrorism is in a constant state of transformation. Historically, security and intelligence agencies have adapted their strategies in response to the tactics employed by terrorist organisations, often learning from the aftermath of successful attacks.
However, recent events in Lebanon have significantly altered the dynamics of terrorism, as intelligence agencies have effectively disrupted the communication channels utilised by these groups, instilling a sense of fear among them.
While this development may hinder terrorist operations, it is crucial to recognise that these groups have a history of innovation in executing attacks.
Consequently, global security and intelligence agencies must take heed of the lessons learnt from the Lebanese situation to effectively mitigate and neutralise the activities of terrorist organisations both now and in the future.
These terrorists are deeply entrenched in their malevolent ideologies, often dismissing the principles of the rule of law.
Therefore, it raises the question of why we should extend empathy and compassion towards these individuals when advocating for justice based on such principles. - Mkini
R PANEIR SELVAM is the principal consultant of Arunachala Research & Consultancy Sdn Bhd (Arrescon), a think tank specialising in strategic national and geo-political matters.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.

---