The Middle East Has Changed Permanently

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 Here is Tom Nash with an analysis of the Israel - US - Iran conflict.
 


 
The Ayatollahs have been crippled. Here is some inside information - the Ayatollahs will never shut down the Straits of Hormuz (a long time strategic threat to global oil supplies). Why? Because that is the only exit point for Iran's oil and gas exports from their Kharg Island oil terminal. If the Straits of Hormuz are shut down, the Ayatollahs will choke first.
If the Straits of Hormuz are closed the Saudis and the Gulf countries have oil pipelines criss crossing the Arabian peninsula which can provide some alternative routes (to export out their oil). 
I will not be surprised if the Arabs do build new pipelines across the peninsula that will free them from the Straits of Hormuz entirely - in which event the Americans and Gulf Arabs can put the shoe on the other foot -  meaning they threaten the Ayatollahs with closing the Straits of Hormuz. The much cheaper option is if there is a regime change in Iran. Most of the problems in the Middle East will be solved.
Note Tom Nash's point about 'regime survival'. This is what I have been saying - that the ayatollahs do not care about Palestine, about the Al Aqsa mosque, about Israel, about the Jews, they dont care about Yemen, Bahrain, about Lebanon, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Gaza or whatever. 
All they care about is their own survival. Because they have no legitimacy in Iran. They are not democratically elected. (There is absolutely no way the Ayatollah Khamenei can remain in power for 36 years -now gone into hiding- without being a dictatorship). 
But clearly their adventurism outside Iran - to prove their non-existent legitimacy to the Iranian people - has been completely destroyed. It is going to take months for them to repair all the destruction suffered over the past two weeks.  
Despite the ceasefire the Iranian airspace is completely controlled by the Israeli Air Force now. It remains to be seen if international airlines can even resume flights into Teheran without the approval of the Israelis.  This alone will show you who really won this fight.
All these things will unravel over the coming weeks and months. 
Since 2003 until today the United States has complete control over Iraqi airspace. And from December last year the US has complete control over the entire Syrian airspace. There is no more air force in Syria and Iraq.
Throughout the 12 days of the conflict not a single Iranian air force jet took off to confront the attacking Israeli warplanes.  The Israelis have also destroyed a large part of the Iranian air force - on the ground.  All these actions were taken with long term strategic planning in mind.  The US and Israel will control Iranian air space for a while to come.
The entire spectrum of Iran's proxies in the Middle East - Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Iraqi Shia militias, PIJ in Gaza, also Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen have all been destroyed or seriously degraded. 
The Iranian nuclear facilities alone are said to have cost US$500 BILLION to build and operate over the past decades. Almost all of that investment has been destroyed.  
The king of the hill in the Middle East now will be the USA, Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia in that order. 
Iran has been completely taken out of the equation. 
At last the wars in the Middle East are over. 
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.
By Syed Akbar Ali 

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