Superior Chinese Technology Upsets India Pakistan Power Balance

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 Shenyang J-31 Gyrfalcon, 5th generation stealth fighter
 
Here is some "upsetting" news. Upsetting means it is upsetting the "air superiority" power balance between India and Pakistan.  Pakistan is buying the 5th generation Chinese stealth fighter the FC-31.

Pakistan Air Force acquisition of fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, the FC-31 (aka J31) “Gyrfalcon,” developed by China's Shenyang Aircraft Corporation.Pakistani media reports Pakistan Air Force already sent pilots to undergo training on flying the FC-31, which is China's second fifth-generation fighter after the J-20 "Mighty Dragon." Aug 10, 2024
Here is a quick video:





My Comments : 
The Indian airforce has around 454 jet fighters :  Su30 MKI (260 units), Mig29 (75 units), Mirage 2000 (50 units), Rafale 36 (units), Tejas 33 (units). Total = 454
The Pakistan Air force has about 400 jet fighters : F-16 Falcon, MiG-21 and MiG-19 (??), 128 JF-17 jets. 
Both airforces fly vintage fighters. I am surprised the Pakistanis fly the MIG 19s which is of Korean War vintage (70 years old). I believe the Chinese upgraded the MIG19s (about 50 years ago?) and provide parts to keep them flying. Even the American F16s are now 46 years old.
India's Mirage 2000 are also aging aircraft (46 years old). 
Their Mig 29s are about 40 years old.
India's latest acquisition are the French Rafales (36 units)  which first flew in 2001. 23 years old. 
None of these planes are 5th generation. 5th generation means it must have stealth capability - low radar profile or almost no radar profile. (But that is becoming redundant because the Chinese already have radar which can easily detect "stealth" aircraft).
6th generation fighters have stealth plus 'unmanned flying' capability. Meaning the aircraft can also be flown without a pilot. Plus 6th generation fighters must have onboard computers to fly one or more UCAV wingmans. Unmanned combat aerial vehicles accompanying the fighter.

The age of the planes also indicates the age of the avionics (radar, weapons systems etc) which will be extremely outdated if they are 46 years old with no upgrades. Upgrades are very expensive and more importantly upgrades may not always be available.  (Try buying parts for a 27 year old Mercedes. I ended up using duct-tape).

Few countries in the world can upgrade aircraft avionics, airframes or engines.  The major powers, Israel and to an extent Singapore are able to do this. The bigger obstacle is if whether the plane's manufacturer will allow others to upgrade their planes.

Since 1951 (73 years) Pakistan has had very long and friendly relations with China. Pakistan was among the first countries to recognise the People's Republic of China. Pakistan China relations have become an "All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership".

Pakistan has long bought weapons from China, especially aircraft. For a very long time China was a 2nd rate or 3rd rate military and technology power. But not anymore. China has now made unbelievable and often unimaginable leaps and advances in technology, including military technology - way ahead of the rest of the world. In stealth aircraft, high speed stealth submarines, radars to detect stealth aircraft, hypersonic missiles and aircraft, drones and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and laser weapons - the Chinese are miles ahead of the west. This is a reality which the rest of the world has not fully understood yet.

So the Chinese tinkered in the garage and came up with the FC-31 Gyrfalcon. And the Chinese can also make it cheaply. And the "All-Weather relationship" with Pakistan means that Pakistan now has access to this latest Chinese technology.  This is how the power equation between Pakistan and India can get toppled over.

This "5th Gen FC-31 Fighter Jet" acquisition immediately makes the Pakistan Air Force “12-14 Years” ahead of India.  The FC-31 "will give Pakistan a strategic advantage over the Indian Air Force for the next 12 to 14 years"  because  “India is not expected to obtain fifth-generation fighter capabilities within that period".
Of course numbers of aircraft count but if Pakistan acquires even a few squadrons (a Pakistani squadron is about 20 aircraft) that will seriously threaten the Indian Airforce. 
Despite all their hype, India is the world's largest "military-shopping superpower". They buy all their weapons overseas. Russian Sukhois, French Rafales, SiG Sauer rifles from the USA, T90 main battle tanks and submarines from Russia, Bofors artillery from Sweden. The list is quite endless.  
On the other hand the Chinese have developed a brand new "mountain" tank designed specially to operate at high altitudes (steep gradients, thin atmosphere, sub zero temperatures) in the Himalayas. The tank is considerably light (35 tons) to go up steeper gradients. It has a lighter 105 mm gun which serves its purpose in mountain terrain.
 



"Weighing between 30-35 tons, it is considerably lighter than China’s primary battle tanks [Type 99 and Type 96]. This reduced weight enables the Type 15 to navigate rugged, high-altitude plateaus and densely forested regions with greater efficiency compared to its heavier counterparts".
In stark contrast the Indians will have to go shopping again to "buy" a similar tank. Bummer  : there are none available for sale, except in China.

The question is what will the Pakistanis do with their new Chinese stealth fighter? Will it tempt them to 'adventurism' against the Indians?  
Wars are won by military logistics, industrial capacity and the strength of the economy. Not just by one new type of jet fighter. India is indeed a sizeable economy while Pakistan is not. 

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.
By Syed Akbar Ali 

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