Serious Chess Game In Middle East Iran Third Rate Military Power Getting Kicked Out
Here is a Sunday thriller. Do read my conclusion at the end. The situation in Syria is moving and changing very fast. Can a 15,000 man jihadi group take over an entire country? Here is the New York Times of Friday 6th Dec, 2024:
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Iran Begins to Evacuate Military Officials and Personnel From Syria
Iran realized it cannot manage situation in Syria
Iran’s ability to help Syria curtailed by its conflict with Israel;
Hezbollah battered badly by Israel.
two top generals of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards fled to Iraq
evacuated top commanders of Revolutionary Guards, personnel on Friday
Guards, personnel, diplomatic staff, families, Iranian civilians evacuated
Iranian Embassy in Damascus evacuated
embassy staff has departed
evacuated Revolutionary Guards bases in Syria
leaving by plane to Tehran, via land to Lebanon, Iraq and Latakia officials said
Iran deployed tens of thousands of Iranian, Afghan, Pakistani Shia volunteers
Afghan Fatemiyoun brigade being transferred to Damascus and Latakia
video showed Fatemiyoun Brigade taking refuge at shrine near DamascusOSTB : Tuan-Tuan Orang Melayu please understand this.This is what happens when you depend on other countries for your security.This is what happens when you get involved in other countries' problems. This is what happens when you start minding other countries business. This is what is happening to both Syria and Iran now. So please watch and learn.
And with a twist of course because this is the Middle East. People stab each other in the back. (Read my conclusion)
After more than 20 years of meddling the Iranians are escaping from Syria.Lock, stock and barrel. They are even taking the embassy's pet cat.OSTB: This also proves that Iran is a THIRD RATE military power. Firstly they have few of their own troops on the ground in Syria. They have been using mercenaries and volunteer Shia fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan (the Fatimiyoun Brigade - named after Fatimah Zahra the daughter of the Nabi). Thousands of those mercenaries are now escaping from Syria. They are being chased out by 15,000 Sunni rebel fighters from the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (which is affiliated to Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood).
Iran’s inability to help Bashar al-Assad "we cannot fight if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight”"we are not fortune tellers, whatever is God’s will shall happen" if Damascus falls, Iran would also lose its sway in Iraq and Lebanon“I don’t understand this inaction but whatever it is, it’s not good for Iran”OSTB : If Damascus falls Iran would lose its influence in Iraq and Lebanon. Quite typically the Iranians are blaming their defeat on Syria. The truth is Iran is a THIRD RATE MILITARY power. THERE WAS ABSOLUTELY ZERO MILITARY OBJECTIVE from the Iranian involvement in Syria for over 14 years. What was the military objective? To liberate the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem? But in Shia theology the third most important shrine in the world is Najaf in Iraq.
'Imam Ali Shrine: Located in Najaf, Iraq, this shrine is considered the holiest site in Shia Islam after Mecca and Medina. It contains the tomb of Ali ibn Abi Talib, the first Shia Imam'.
I have been to the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf during the time of Saddam Hussein. The Imam Ali shrine has never been invaded or damaged or destroyed by Saddam Hussein. I believe the Americans did damage it but it has been functioning everyday for the past 1,400 years. Anyone can visit the shrine. A group of us Malaysians visited the shrine in the late 1990s.
Likewise I believe the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem has not missed a single Friday congregation prayer since it was built around 700 AD (1324 years ago). Despite the Crusades the mosque has always functioned. Anyone can visit the mosque.
The Iranian adventure in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, Bahrain, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Armenia (where they lost the war to Turkey) was nothing more than a public-relations show off exercise to impress the really tired and fed up Iranian people. All this was for home consumption back in Iran. They dont really care about the Al Aqsa Mosque.
When just 15,000 Sunni rebel fighters attack them, the Iranians are packing up and running away from Syria.
withdrawal amid resurgent rebel offensiveIslamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has changed the landscapeposing the most serious challenge Hayat Tahrir al-Sham threaten Iran’s ability to supply Hezbollah weaponsrebels swept through Aleppo, Hama, captured 4 provinces, target Damascus
My Conclusions :
1. The Hayat Tahrir al Shams or HTS is a Sunni, Al Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood affiliated rebel group - strongly supported by the Muslim Brotherhood's Khalifah Recip Tayyep Erdogan of Turkey. The HTS has about 15,000 fighters and they are fully supplied by Turkey. But can they take over all of Syria?
2. Firstly will Israel allow another Sunni, Al Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood, psycho jihadi outfit like the HTS to become the ruling power on its northern border? Somehow I dont think so. They have enough headaches from the Hamas in the south, from Hezbollah in Lebanon.
A few days back I uploaded a post saying that Bashar Assad had asked for Israel's help to fight off the HTS. Israel replied that they will only help if ALL THE IRANIANS leave Syria. (I know many people found it very hard to believe that story - Syria asking Israel for help?) But lo and behold, the Iranians are now packing up and leaving Syria. Just as the Israelis requested. Lets see what happens.
3. Then there is Russia. Russia has a huge military presence in Syria especially the naval base at Tartus and the Khmeimim Air Base at Latakia. Syria has been Russia's strongest ally in the Middle East for decades. It is not likely that Russia will allow Syria to be run over by 15,000 of Erdogan's rebel force. Russia does not like Erdogan. No one likes Erdogan - not NATO, not the EU, not the USA, not Iran or Saudi Arabia, not Syria or Israel or even China. No one likes Erdogan except one fool in South East Asia.
Turkey, Iraq and Syria share borders with each other. Turkey, Iran and Iraq share borders with each other. Israel shares a border with Syria (at the Golan Heights).
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MAP OF THE MOST SATANIC AND SCREWED UP REGION IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND. THIS IS WHERE SATAN LIVES - PERMANENTLY.
4. I have this feeling that the ayatollahs in Iran and Erdogan in Turkey will end up the losers in Syria. There is a chess game being played. The moves that are being made may be very complicated but the entire chess game can become very easy to understand if it can be figured out who are the team players playing off against who?
Here very clearly the ayatollahs in Iran are playing alone. They have NO ONE ELSE on their side.
Erdogan is playing alone. Erdogan has NO ONE ELSE on his side.
Israel has the US and the West, they have the Kurds, now maybe they have Bashar Assad of Syria, Saudi Arabia, the Abrahamic Accords countries, Jordan and the other Gulf countries (except Qatar) on their side. The biq mystery - does Israel have Russia on its side? They are certainly not enemies. But Israel can play the game alone by themselves. That is Israeli planning and strategy.
Russia is so powerful they too can play the game alone by themselves.
Still Russia has many powerful friends on its side. Russia has China.
Final outcome?
Those who want to be left alone will win.
Those who cannot leave others alone will lose.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.By Syed Akbar Ali
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