Sabah S Pivotal Youth Power

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This weekend, Sabahan civil society groups under the Bah-Bincang Kita umbrella held a well-attended youth forum featuring candidates/parties and highlighting the important role of Sabahan youth in determining the outcome of the coming polls.
This event follows the tradition of Undi Sabah, working to engage and mobilise younger voters.
Decisive group
These voters will be critical in shaping the results of the Sabah election. Their power begins with their numbers. Sabahan youth (voters under 30) comprise almost a third of the nearly 1.8 million Sabahans who will have the opportunity to vote this November, around 31 percent.
ADSFirst-time voters, those under 20 years old, comprise six percent of the electorate.
Youth are decisive in all 73 seats, with the exception of Api Api in the heart of Kota Kinabalu, where they only comprise nine percent of the voters.
The seats where youth have the largest share of the electorate are Karambunai, close to the Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Nabawan in the interior, and Bugaya in Semporna. Youth comprise over a third, or over, in 29 state seats, as shown in the chart below drawn from the electoral roll earlier this year.
Demanding voice
Even before this weekend’s forum, Sabahan youth have been making their presence known. In recent times, Sabah has experienced unprecedented protests involving Gen Z, around water issues at Universiti Malaysia Sabah and the tragic death of 13-year-old Zara Qairina Mahathir last July.
Sabahan student, 13-year-old Zara Qairina MahathirThese protests have been in the thousands and across small towns, which have not experienced this open anger and mobilisation before.
The Zara issue remains highly salient and emotive. Through every corner of Sabah - from remote villages to the more urban centres - banners calling for justice for Zara fly, to those hand-painted on bedsheets, printed on car stickers and in large posters at roundabouts.
Young people closely identify with the tragedy, bullying and difficulties in Sabah schools, as well as the anti-elitist and marginalisation narratives that have surrounded this case.
The inquest involving her case is still making its way through the courts. It remains to be seen how much this issue will translate into support for different parties/coalitions, as the electoral impact is likely to be felt to a greater degree in particular seats rather than widely.
Nevertheless, the broader effect of the issue is two-fold. First, youth are more aware and engaged politically than in recent polls. Second, the issue has illustrated the powerful influence of social media, which can bring an issue to the fore overnight and shape narratives, including with misinformation.
The Zara issue foreshadows the role of social media in the Sabah polls, as videos and messages go viral, especially among younger voters.
Disenfranchisement
ADSYet, young Sabahan voters also have among the lowest turnout of all age cohorts, reaching only above half in voting estimates, 54 percent in the 2020 state polls and 56 percent in 2022. This is not due to apathy, but primarily a product of socioeconomic realities.
Youth are often studying or working away from home, and, more often than not, cannot afford to return to vote, especially the large numbers of voters located in Peninsular Malaysia.
Sabah youth’s Hai Mandak movementSabah youth face a double-whammy in terms of electoral participation. First, many work or study in Peninsular Malaysia and cannot afford the time and cost to return home.
A USM study earlier this year found that one in six Sabahans returned to vote, showcasing a pattern of exclusion. As Bersih has argued, younger voters have been prevented by the lack of simple reforms to promote inclusion.
While some political parties support travel home, and some flights are offered at a special price, this creates an uneven playing field, favouring those with resources. Second, within Sabah, travel costs are high, as distances are far and public transportation is sparse.
It is important to recognise that Borneo youth (including Sarawak) are systematically disenfranchised. Sabah’s Hai Mandak movement to bring home voters is one that should be lauded and supported, but it speaks to a systematic issue undercutting youth participation.
Findings on voting behaviour over the past four elections show a worrying decline in participation, one that may turn around this time with greater youth engagement.
Divided youth electorate
Generally, political parties/coalitions are uneasy about youth engagement despite their centrality in the coming results. Youth are disproportionately more of the fence sitters, which comprise over an estimated 40 percent of the voters at this point in the campaign, based on field analysis across Sabah.
Youth are seen to be more electorally unpredictable, and the most open to different options, with the least party loyalty.
A closer look at previous voting patterns shows that Sabah youth are also divided in voting across political parties/coalitions. This division reflects Sabah’s complex plural society and the strength of local political identities and family in shaping youth voting behavior.
While youth voting shows that they are not that much different than older generations, youth are generally more inclined to support “opposition” parties/coalitions, to push for change and reform.
Sabah youth in 2022 were largely split among Warisan, Pakatan Harapan and BN, followed by Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS). Perikatan Nasional won minimally in Sabah, as independent candidates did better.
While Sabah politics is strongly shaped by regional factors and local seat issues - themes developed in my Kerusi Panas podcast - voting shows that youth, while divided, will make a difference in the outcome of polls.
GRS targeted engagement
For the past two years, the GRS state government has attempted to woo them with programmes and policy initiatives.
Below are the initiatives of the Hajiji Noor government, primarily emphasising assistance for education. It remains to be seen whether this outreach will be enough to turn around the relatively low political support of the youth, of an estimated 18 percent of those under 30.
These initiatives may be overshadowed by growing dissatisfaction that more needs to be done to improve conditions, from water to infrastructure, as the Hajiji government is being perceived by some as not doing enough.
Sabahan youth disproportionately look toward “change” and increasingly are not afraid of speaking out.
No wonder this creates unease among politicians, who in the past felt that youth were easy to win over. Not surprisingly, candidates across parties are reaching out to youth more than ever.
Youth power in Sabah’s polls is real, as are expectations of better development and delivery of basic needs. Yet, disenfranchisement, low turnout and divisions among youth in their political support suggest that youth power is not focused and as strong as it might be.
Yet, as the campaign heats up, especially on social media, the ground may change as fence sitters choose sides. In the tight races and with no party/coalition expected at this juncture to win a majority, youth power will be pivotal in determining the results.
Recent mobilisation shows that youth should not be underestimated in this election; ultimately, they know that the stakes in these polls are about their future. - Mkini
This is the author’s second column in her Sabah series.
BRIDGET WELSH is an honorary research associate of the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute, a senior research associate at Hu Fu Centre for East Asia Democratic Studies, and a senior associate fellow at The Habibie Centre. Her writings can be found at bridgetwelsh.com.
She is on the ground in Sabah researching the polls, and her written analysis can be found exclusively in Malaysiakini and through her self-funded podcast Kerusi Panas Sabah.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.

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