Sabah Decides 2025 Fragmented Fights Identity Politics And The Battle For The Future

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TOMORROW (Nov 29), some 1.7 million Sabahans will cast their votes in what promises to be the most complex and consequential state election in Sabah’s history.
With 596 candidates contesting 73 seats, the 17th Sabah State Election stands out as the most crowded electoral contest ever held in the state.
Many constituencies now carry up to 14 candidates, transforming the electoral battleground into a highly fragmented and unpredictable arena. In such a setting, small vote swings, local networks, personal reputation and targeted promises may matter far more than overarching national manifestos or party labels.
This election is less about broad ideology and more about micro-level dynamics, local calculations and pragmatic bargains.
Sabah faces a pivotal test. The next state leadership must demonstrate the capacity to translate electoral noise into coherent governance, deliver tangible progress, respect constitutional rights, and build institutional capacity that can endure beyond election cycles.
The new political geometry: Coalitions, breakaways and fragmentation
(Image: Bernama)The 2025 contest features a bewildering array of parties, coalitions and independents. Key developments include:
Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) remains a core player, campaigning on continuity, development delivery and administrative stability. Its cohesion has weakened due to Sabah STAR (STAR) and Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) contesting independently.
GRS leadership has clarified that component parties contesting under separate banners are considered to have exited the coalition. This vote splitting in previously unified constituencies increases the likelihood of narrow victories and surprises.
Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) is contesting all 73 seats, signalling its intent to reassert itself as the centrepiece of Sabah-first politics.
Warisan emphasises state identity, autonomy, native rights, and Sabah’s entitlement under the constitution, particularly revenue-sharing rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63).

National coalitions such as Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN/UMNO) remain active. PH contests selectively and aligns with GRS in limited constituencies, while BN is contesting independently.
National coalitions are constrained by voter fatigue with peninsula-centric politics, highlighting the enduring resonance of Sabah-first themes.
Independents and smaller regional parties—over 20 parties alongside 74 independents—contribute to a fragmented political field, giving these actors potential kingmaker influence in post-election negotiations.
This complex landscape renders conventional assumptions about coalition dominance unreliable. Electoral outcomes are likely to hinge on constituency-level factors, local alliances, and post-election bargaining rather than pre-election coalition strength.
What this fragmentation implies for seats and voting
(Image: Bernama)Because of the large number of contestants, no seat is a straight fight. According to official data, this election features:
One 14-cornered contest (the most crowded)Four constituencies with 13 candidatesTwo constituencies with 12 candidatesSix with 11 candidates, nine with 10, and multiple with 8 or 9 contendersAs a result, winning thresholds will shrink drastically. Rather than requiring 40–50% of votes to win, seats may be won with 25% or less.
This raises the possibility of candidates securing seats with relatively small, organised bases, often local strongmen, well-connected individuals, or those able to mobilise identity, clan or community support.
In effect, multi-cornered contests increase the reward for localism, personalised politics and tactical voting, and reduce the value of broad policy platforms.
Thus the true causes of victory may not be manifestos, but micro-calculations, constituency bargains, vote-splitting, and the ability to deliver on immediate local concerns.
What the parties are selling
Across the board, campaign messaging from major parties and coalitions converges around three broad themes:
Immediate, tangible delivery of basic services—roads, water supply, clinics, electricity, school infrastructure and job opportunities—in rural and semi-urban areas. Parties compete to show concrete planning or past delivery, rather than grand ideological manifestos. This reflects a recognition that many Sabah communities remain deprived of basic infrastructure.
State rights, revenue entitlements and constitutional justice under MA63 remain central to Sabah’s political landscape, particularly the state’s constitutional entitlement to 40% of net revenue collected by the federal government from Sabah.
This issue has shaped political discourse for decades and gained renewed momentum after the High Court ruling in Oct 2025, which affirmed Sabah’s right to the entitlement.
Following the decision, the federal government announced that it would not appeal the ruling, signalling a willingness to respect the constitutional position of Sabah.
However, Putrajaya opted to seek clarification only on specific technical matters related to liability, computation methodology and the timeframe for implementing the entitlement.
This approach was seen as a partial but meaningful concession, balancing federal fiscal considerations with Sabah’s longstanding demand for constitutional recognition. As a result, many Sabah leaders have urged the federal government to expedite implementation and demonstrate good faith in fulfilling the spirit and letter of MA63.

Sabah-first identity politics, native rights and local autonomy especially land rights, native customary claims, local management of resources and resistance to perceived encroachment by peninsula-centric federal politics.
For many Sabahans, this resonates strongly, particularly among native communities, rural voters and those who feel marginalised by past federal policies.
Given the overlapping nature of these appeals, voters may not cast their ballots strictly along party lines.
Instead, their choices are likely to hinge on which candidates or parties can effectively deliver services, advance the implementation of MA63, and safeguard Sabah’s identity and autonomy, rather than on ideological alignment alone.
This dynamic elevates the importance of candidate credibility, personal networks, deep community roots, and the proven ability to deliver constituency-level benefits.
It also shifts the political balance away from broad ideological or national-level commitments, placing greater emphasis on pragmatism and local concerns. 
Ts Dr Manivannan Rethinam is the Chairman of Majlis Gagasan Malaysia and brings nearly three decades of experience across national politics, governance advisory, technology-driven transformation, and community development.

The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT. 
- Focus Malaysia.

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