Oops Syria Has Fallen
It is a big Oops! Until yesterday it was still unclear what exactly what happening on the ground in Syria. But the clincher was that ALL Syrian government troops had stood down or laid down their arms - most likely after realising that Bashar Assad was nowhere to be seen. Plus the rebel leaders prompt televised speech saying that government soldiers who lay down their arms will not be harmed in any way. The Syrian troops standing down made it easy for the rebel forces to drive straight to the deserted presidential palace and take over the place. Game over.
What does it all mean? The show is not over until the fat lady sings. That has not happened yet.
1. Hayat Tahrir al Shams or HTS seem to be the main players. Ex Al Qaeda but also Muslim Brotherhood. They have clearly been the spearhead in toppling the Assad regime. So far they have not made any 'Destroy Israel, liberate Palestine' statements. Neither have they said anything about Hamas or Gaza. They only control a portion of Syria. Large chunks of the country to the east are controlled by the Kurdish people who have American and Israeli support. Can the HTS rule all of Syria? That remains to be seen.
2. Israel - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel made quite a conciliatory statement about the collapse of Syria. He said that because Syrian troops disappeared from their border checkpoints along the Syrian side of the Line of Control in the Golan Heights, he ordered Israeli troops to occupy the Syrian side of the LOC. This was to prevent rival Syrian factions from taking control of the border with Israel. So Israeli troops are now occupying the Syrian side of the Line of Control up to 14 kilometers inside Syria !! But Netanyahu said that Israeli troops will withdraw once the new Syrian government can organise themselves and take charge again of their side of the border. Netanyahu has also said that Israel is prepared to live in peace with any Syrian government which would like to do the same.
2. Russia - Russia is in quite a quandary. Or are they? Russia has a large amount of military assets both at the naval base in Tartus as well as the military airbase in Khmeimim. There are also very highly prized Russian S300 and S400 missile defense systems in Tartus, Khmeimim and in other parts of Syria which Russia would not want to fall into the wrong hands. Plus Russian fighter jets and naval ships at the two bases. Russia has significant military manpower on the ground in Syria and there is little news about the status of the Russian troops. Are they leaving, are they staying? If they are staying are they enemies or renegotiating their status? The total loss of Syria will be a great big hit for Russia. Russia will not (and should not) remain in Syria if they do not have good relations with the new regime. But we dont know what else the cat will drag in by this evening.
3. Syria - will there be a new government? Will there be a new president? Will the HTS be accepted by all Syrians? Most certainly the Kurdish people will not be accepting the HTS. The Kurdish people have been doing the brunt of the fighting and resistance (as well as suffering oppression) for a very long time. They have as much claim to ousting Bashar Assad as anyone else. There are suggestions that the Kurdish people want to carve out their own Republic of Rojava along north east Syria. This area is now occupied by US troops (about 1,000 of them) in close cooperation with the Kurdish forces (the YPJ etc). Plus Israel also supports the Kurdish people with funds and weaponry. It looks like Syria will be broken up. It will not be the same again.
A new Republic of Rojava will sit beside the Kurdish Autonomous Region of Iraq (Iraqi Kurdistan see map below) just next door. This is already in existence. It looks like the Kurdish people in Syria and Iraq are at last getting their own homeland. The largest numbers of Kurdish people are found in Turkey (20 million) and Iran (12 million). Do you see the roadmap ahead? And the turmoil needed along the way?
4. Iran : The ayatollahs have been proven to be quite the crappy paper camels. Or paper donkeys. Despite 20 years or so in Syria, they just packed up and left Syria in a couple of days. The earliest to escape were the generals and soldiers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps or the IRGC. All of them just disappeared. At a critical moment when the Assad regime needed their help, the ayatollahs quit and ran away. As I said earlier the collapse of Syria is proof enough that Iran is a third rate military power. They were beaten by 15,000 (or less) rebels arriving in mostly Toyota "technicals" - those pick up trucks with a machine gun mounted on the back.
The fall of Syria also means the end of Hezbollah in Lebanon because the ayatollahs' land connection through Syria to Lebanon has now been cut. The new guys in power in Syria will not allow weapons to flow from Iran through Syria into Lebanon and Gaza (smuggling through Jordan). This is a fatal cut in the lifeline for the Hezbollah. This is the end of Iranian meddling in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza.
The ayatollahs have been greatly embarrassed and made to look like fools. In just a few weeks their Hezbollah proxy in Lebanon has been destroyed and now they have lost Syria. Mahsa Amini, this is for you.
5. Turkey - Turkey has no friends. Just like Iran. No one likes Turkey and no one likes Iran.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.
By Syed Akbar Ali
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