Nothing Personal About Zafrul S Party Switch

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 I find it amusing that some politicians and commentators take Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz’s announced party-switching from Umno to PKR so “personal”, with so much emotion invested.
I hope those Malaysians who have felt confused and disillusioned by national politics with the dramas in the past weeks can feel less emotionally disturbed when they can see what these politicians and commentators have left unsaid.
The elephant in the room is straightforward: Zafrul wants to stay in politics after Dec 2 when his second senatorial term ends, and PKR is the only party that can afford and is willing to stage a by-election for him.
ADSFact 1: Zafrul’s royal link
Notwithstanding all great personal qualities Zafrul has, his biggest asset is his link to two royal houses. This makes his desire to stay politically relevant till GE16 relevant enough for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
Without the royal links, Zafrul can be the most talented politician, and he would still have to “keluar sekejap” from public life - without any ministerial or legislative position - after Dec 3.
(The context: Zafrul was appointed as a senator and the finance minister by then-prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin on March 10, 2020. He resigned on Nov 5, 2022, to contest the GE15, but he lost.
(He was then appointed as senator again on Dec 3, 2022, to be the investment, trade and industry minister. Article 45(3A) of the Federal Constitution stipulates that a Senator “shall not hold office for more than two terms, either continuously or otherwise”.)
Fact 2: Umno cannot give up a seat for Zafrul
To stay politically relevant between Dec 3 and GE16, Zafrul needs to return to Dewan Rakyat or a state legislature by way of a by-election.
This means a sitting parliamentarian or state assemblyperson needs to resign to vacate the seat, like what Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail (2008) and Danyal Balagopal Abdullah (2018) did for Anwar’s return to Parliament and what Lee Chin Cheh (2014) did for Wan Azizah’s entry to the Selangor state assembly in the Kajang move. (Yes, PKR is phenomenally experienced and skilful in this respect.)
Since Zafrul previously contested in Kuala Selangor, his best bet would be in Selangor.
Would any of the Umno’s 26 parliamentarians – none of them in Selangor, by the way – sacrifice themselves for Zafrul?
What about Rizam Ismail (Sungai Air Tawar) or Johan Abd Aziz (Dusun Tua) – Umno’s only two assemblypersons in Selangor?
No one in Umno would do a Danyal or Lee for Zafrul, not just because Zafrul is not Anwar for Umno, but also because Umno has so few seats and resources to consider such a sacrifice for anyone.
ADSSo, even if Zafrul and Selangor Umno chairperson are best friends forever, Umno still cannot give Zafrul what he needs to avoid political irrelevance for possibly up to 31 months. Nothing personal.
Fact 3: PKR will not stage by-election for Umno member
The only party that can and may give Zafrul a by-election is PKR. PKR has 30 parliamentary seats and 12 state seats in Selangor.
More importantly, PKR is the prime minister’s party, which controls most patronage resources - from senatorship to GLC appointments as “rightful recognition of those who have contributed to a party’s success”.
So, if PKR is going to vacate a parliamentary or state seat for Zafrul, would it do it? Anyone with a little common sense would know the answer.
So, if you are Zafrul, and if you want PKR to vacate a seat for you, what would you do? Nothing personal.
Fact 4: What Umno misses is not Zafrul
By his own account, Zafrul has joined Umno since 1997 when he was 24 years old. But most Malaysians did not know about this before May 2022, when the then secretary-general Ahmad Maslan told the media that Zafrul was already an Umno member before his cabinet appointment in 2020.
Zafrul became active in Umno just before GE15 when he was appointed as Selangor BN treasurer. When he announced his resignation on Friday, he was a member of Umno supreme council and Kota Raja division chief. Surely, some Umno members who had supported him in the party election might feel betrayed.
However, this is not the “party-hopping” which refers to elected representatives because Zafrul did not get elected. Even in Umno’s party constitution, Article 20.11 (the anti-hopping clause) explicitly covers only members of the Dewan Rakyat and state legislatures.
Does Umno really miss Zafrul as a leader? Weren’t some Umno leaders frustrated just two years ago that Zafrul took up a ministerial post in Umno’s name when his recommendation did not come from the party?
Nothing personal. Umno misses the ministerial post Zafrul currently holds more than him.
Here are the numbers. Umno had six out of 28 ministers (21.4 percent) in Anwar’s first cabinet lineup. After the December 2023 reshuffle, Umno’s share rose slightly to seven out of 31 (22.6 percent). Now, with Zafrul’s exit, Umno’s share dropped to 19.4 percent.
Until and unless the cabinet reshuffle lets Umno get back a ministerial post - hopefully Investment, Trade and Industry Ministry or something equivalent or stronger in power - Umno is short-changed by Zafrul’s move.
The Umno’s backlash is but necessary act to remind Anwar not to take its support for granted.
Why now? What next?
Now, isn’t it clear as daylight as to why Zafrul has to quit Umno and why now?
After the resignation of PKR duo Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad from the cabinet, the reshuffle had to be brought forward, if December was the original deadline.
Former cabinet ministers Rafizi Ramli (left) and Nik Nazmi Nik AhmadIf Zafrul wants a by-election, joining PKR can force Anwar to take this into consideration for a cabinet reshuffle.
Would this break up the Madani government? No, unless Umno does not get back seven ministerial portfolios in the new cabinet lineup. If the ministry goes to PKR or a technocrat, then Umno must get another heavyweight ministry in compensation.
So, don’t be surprised if one or two ministries are split again to make the cabinet larger. Anwar initially kept the frontbench size at 55, same with Dr Mahathir Mohamad 2.0’s, then raised it to 60 in the 2023 reshuffle.
Like other humans, politicians respond to the opportunities and incentives that appear before them. But their response is often more dramatic, and an overdose of political dramas can cause ‘informational/emotional overload’ to ordinary citizens.
Are these arrangements/practices - senatorial appointment as a backdoor for cabinet appointment, two-term limit for senatorial appointments, staging by-elections to install certain leaders, creating more ministerial jobs to please parties - good for political stability, accountability and delivery?
Each of them can be a topic for serious discussion. But let’s not get emotionally disturbed and grow cynical because of dramatic acts and words by politicians. Let’s keep calm and drink tea. - Mkini
WONG CHIN HUAT is a political scientist at Sunway University and a member of Project Stability and Accountability for Malaysia (Projek Sama).
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.

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