Israel Launches Massive Strike On Iran Early Friday 13 6 2025

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Ok the news says an Iranian counter-attack is now underway. Over 100 drones have been launched by Iran towards Israel. But it does not sound good for Iran. It is good for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf because it means Iranian capacity is limited (to escalate the conflict into the region). 
So far Iran has not launched any of their ballistic missiles yet - none of which hit their targets last year in April and October 2024. TWICE their ballistic missiles did not hit any targets. It is unlikely that they will be successful a third time either. But they will launch ballistic missiles, whose 20 - 30 minute flying time will likely be timed to hit at the same time as those drones arrive in Israel.
That could be a problem. The drones are slow flying and will take hours to reach Israel. They will be picked up by radar pickets along the way and will likely be taken down.


But that will not matter. In Iran managing the perception is more important. The drone launches would be shown on Iran TV day and night. Whether they hit anything is not important.
If the Iranians do not launch their ballistic missiles it will mean that the Ayatollahs are indeed quite defenceless.
The question that is on every mission planner's mind is how did the Israelis do it? Reports say about 200 Israeli jet fighters roamed all over Iran in the early hours of Friday morning. Past Natanz in the east and up north to the Tabriz area in Azerbaijan province. They dropped their ordinances (a minimum 480 bombs and air to ground missiles) and all their planes got home safely.  All their bombs and missiles hit their targets. Iranian air defences were either non-existent or unable to detect 200 Israeli warplanes. That is very bad news. 
It means the Ayatollahs have not been able to rebuild their air defences from the previous Israeli counter-strike. 



How did the Israelis manage the aerial refueling for 200 warplanes over such a huge distance? Neither the Israelis nor the American forces in the Middle East have enough aerial tankers to handle 200 warplanes in one mission. 
They only had fuel for a one way trip and maybe for less than half way back.  I suspect that on the way back the Israeli warplanes may have stopped for refueling on the ground at a Texaco or Caltex petrol station somewhere. My money is on Iraq. The Israeli planes did fly through Iraqi airspace on their way to Iran. Or they had extra large strap-on fuel tanks.
Iraq is very complicated for Iran. Iraq is majority Shia. So Iran will find it difficult to retaliate against Shia majority Iraq. But chunks of Iraq are also pro-US. 
The Israelis have also taken out the Iranian Chief of Armed Forces, a guy called Buggery. They also took out the Chief of the IRGC, his name was Salami. Chief of the Air Force General Shawarma was not harmed. But there were other top echelon military leaders who were taken out. Also about half a dozen top nuclear scientists.
The Israelis say the operation is not over. They say it may last up to two weeks. Their intention is to fully put out of commission the Iranian nuclear weapons program. They are also targetting Iranian ballistic missile manufacturing capacity. 
They will undertake satellite and aerial recon of the 40 sites or more that were bombed this morning. If any of the sites need a second round of bombing they will probably do it again.
The Iranian air force was non existent. The actual Israeli attacks lasted minutes (about 10-20 minutes).  Their warplanes swarmed  all over Iran and arrived at the dozens of target sites at very precise times. 
The Islamic countries are quiet as a door mouse. The Islamic world cheered for Hamas when they attacked Israel. Forgetting that Hamas was funded and armed by Iran. Have they forgotten that Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Teheran? But now when Iran is under attack, the Islamic countries are quiet. Why? Because the Ayatollahs are Shias. This is the hypocrisy of the Islamic countries. 
Dont worry folks. The world is not in danger or under any threat. Ok oil prices have jumped up US$8 - 10 per barrel but things will settle down. They always do. There is no threat of a military escalation throughout the Middle East. 
Whatever for? Why would the Ayatollahs risk exchanging rocket fire with their Arab neighbours as well? And by the US Navy? There is not going to be any 'Iranian world war'.  
Conclusion: The Ayatollahs are idiots. 
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.
By Syed Akbar Ali 

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