Grs To Lead Sabah Election With At Least 26 Seats Ilham Centre

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SABAH POLLS | Research firm Ilham Centre predicted that Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) could win at least 26 of the 73 state seats in tomorrow’s Sabah election.
“The biggest contributors are dominant incumbent seats such as Sulaman, Karanaan, Kuala Penyu, Membakut, and the like,” it said in a statement today.
The think tank said GRS’ strength lies in its incumbency and the image of caretaker chief minister Hajiji Noor, who remains popular despite being implicated in a state-wide mineral mining licence corruption scandal.
It said GRS’ election campaign is “defensive but more organised” with consistent messaging.
The prediction was based on survey findings, focus group discussions of all voter segmentations, in-depth interviews with academics, cross-checks with data from previous elections, and the analysis of sentiments in online spaces.
The seats were divided into three categories: seats with clear winners, seats where competition is expected to be tight but have a clear favourable candidate, and seats with tight competition but are difficult to analyse until the last minute due to many variables.
Warisan may surprise
Ilham Centre also predicted that Warisan will win comfortably in its six stronghold seats, especially those on the east coast.
It said the party also has the potential to double its tally to 14 seats if vote swings occur in urban seats and tight seats.
This is despite it running a weaker campaign than GRS, according to the centre.
Warisan president Shafie Apdal“Warisan tried to build momentum in the early stages of the campaign, but it was not enough to create a big wave across the regions,” it commented.
Similarly, the centre labelled Warisan’s decision to contest in all 73 seats as a resource-consuming liability to the party’s machinery.
ADSBut Warisan may turn a profit by receiving protest votes from urban voters keen to reject Pakatan Harapan, it said.
“Some of the state seats that Warisan is contesting have the potential to benefit from a multi-cornered and intense clash between GRS, Harapan, and BN,” it noted.
Dim prospects for big peninsular coalitions 
Meanwhile, BN is expected to win nine seats.
“If it succeeds in winning additional seats in the tight state seat category, that will be a bonus for BN,” Ilham Centre added.
On the other hand, it said Harapan has only four comfortable seats so far.
However, it noted that 13 seats could fall to any party that survives the tough competition there.
As for Perikatan Nasional, the centre said the coalition has the potential to win two of those seats, namely Karambunai and Sugut.
“If they (PN) fail to win any of these seats, it will be a huge blow to PN to make a wake-up call after the 17th Sabah election,” it commented.
Due to internal clashes within Bersatu at the central level, the think tank found that PN’s Sabah campaign appears less structurally prepared in the organisation of its machinery and selection of candidates.
“As a result, PN is struggling to find a rhythm to compete with other parties that are more prepared to face this state election,” it said.
The centre also said that GRS could win battleground seats through cooperation with Harapan as well as negotiations with local parties and independent candidates.
Spotlight on candidates
Beyond party strengths, the candidates themselves will also be a key factor in the poll, it noted.
“Apart from party branding and current issues, voters this time are more likely to vote based on the candidate running. 
“In other words, the candidate factor far exceeds the party and issue factors, as well as across all demographic and geographical segmentations,” it said.
Voters are most likely to pay close attention to the work history of a candidate in serving the local community, it said.
“The three characteristics of candidates that most gain a place among voters are leaders who care about the welfare of the people, have exhibited and proven excellent work performance, and are diligent in going out to meet the people,” it explained, adding that this provides incumbent candidates with an edge.
Aside from that, Ilham Centre found that voters are strongly driven by emotional issues tied to Sabah’s rights, including the 40 percent revenue entitlement, implementation of the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), state autonomy, and concerns over Sabah’s dignity and image.
Harapan’s Chinese base at risk
It further found a greater likelihood of swing voting among Chinese voters.
This also affected Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM) voters in urban areas such as Likas, Inanam, Luyang, Kapayan, and Api-Api.
These groups were exposed to fast information on social media, the centre said, pointing to a pattern of rejection towards parties from the peninsula.
It identified urban areas as a breeding ground for protest and disappointment towards the Harapan campaign, which it described as “bland” and unengaging for Chinese voters compared to those of previous state elections. 
“If this wave of protests grows by a significant percentage, the Inanam and Api-Api seats belonging to PKR may change hands. DAP’s Likas, Luyang, and Kapayan are on the verge of being won.
“Harapan’s lavish campaigns and especially DAP's giant billboards invite subtle rejection in the Chinese community. 
“This wind of change benefits Warisan, which receives an overflow of rejection against Harapan,” it further noted.
According to its findings, themes of rejection against Harapan include disappointment over economic issues such as the sales and service tax (SST) implementation, uncontrolled prices, corruption, and MA63.
Youth voter excitement and turnout
What’s more, youth voters were found to buck mainstream ideals as they were more likely to pay attention to new or young candidates with an attractive appearance or charm and social media presence.
But Ilham Centre discovered that 43 percent of voters who have yet to decide on their ballot choice are youths.
In theory, it said, the mass support of youth voters could change the status quo in any constituency or even the state government.
But in practice, about 16 percent of youth voters have yet to decide on their vote, it found.
“This shows that there is no wave that has swept this segment as a whole. Some chose because of the candidate's attractiveness, while some vote according to the choices of their parents and friends. 
“Interestingly, this segment is very excited to go out to vote just to see the blue-inked fingerprints on their social media accounts,” it said.
However, it warned against underestimating the factor of voter turnout.
“The lower the voter turnout, the more favourable it is for the incumbent party.
“With the factors discussed above, we expect that most of the voters outside the state will not return to vote,” it added. - Mkini

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