Europe Usa Corona Virus Downward Trend Malaysia Going Up Please Do Not Ease Up On The Mco Yet

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The momentum of the Corona Virus seems to be slowing down in Europe and the USA. Here is some copy paste :
Apparently, Europe is now on the way to getting a handle on the COVID-19 outbreak. They’re not out of the woods yet, but we can clearly see a downward trend.
We all needed this silver lining, reassuring us that there’s an end to this crisis in sight.  
For both Europe and the US :There are encouraging signs that social controls are starting to slow the momentum of the epidemic.Another week or so of data is required to be sure a stable slowing trajectory has been established.
Based on China’s experience, fairly strict social controls will likely stay in place in most if not all regions until early/mid-May (~two months after imposition).
Here are some graphs which show the changes in the rate of growth of confirmed Covid cases:



Even in the USA the momentum is slowing :
What this means is that whatever actions that have been taken are working. You can debate the details (and human lives are involved) but the trend is promising. Lets hope for the best. 
Here are some graphs for Spain and Italy, two of the worst hit countries in Europe, which also show signs of improvement :






















There is a clear downtrend in both Italy and Spain. 

Now here is Malaysia. The graphs for Malaysia are actually showing an uptick :




For both Spain and Italy a better Bell Curve is taking shape.  

"Better"  meaning a Bell Curve usually captures the 'beginning and end' of any normal statistical distribution. Then the predictability should be better. 

But there DOES NOT  appear to be a clear Bell Curve for Malaysia.

If you look at the charts for Malaysia (which I took from worldometers coronavirus click here)  - which track incremental ups and downs,  both new cases and new deaths are on the uptrend in Malaysia from April 9th 2020. Today is April 13th.

So what is going on? 

This news item is also worrying :







KL April 12 — Health Ministry identified 4 Covid-19 sub-clusters linked to index patients from tabligh gathering in Sri Petaling 
madrasah, tahfiz in Pahang, Penang, S'gor, Melakaidentified 4 sub-clusters in madrasahs and tahfiz 
1st is madrasah in Jerantut, Pahangscreened 401 people, 297 students, 104 employees, family62 positive cases, 20 have recovered 
2nd sub-cluster madrasah in Penanti, Penang291 screened, 251 students, 35 staff6 Covid-19 patients, 4 discharged
3rd sub-cluster Sungai Lui, Selangor282 screened, 274 students, 8 staff90 positive, 67 recovered
4th sub-cluster madrasah Jasin, Melaka 137 screened — 122 students, 15 staff37 positive, 1 recovering
D-G said vital to detect, treat high-risk groups to break chain of infections.

Here are yesterdays figures for Malaysia :



As you can see the number of new cases (153) has exceeded the number of recoveries again (113). 

This is not good news. Just a few days ago the recoveries exceeded the new cases. Now it is worsening again.

This new tahfiz and madrasah sub-cluster is certainly a contributing factor.

Folks, Malaysia is NOT OUT OF THE WOODS yet.
Easing up on the MCO now may not be the best thing to do.
As hard as it is going to be, the MCO has to be extended.
This barber shops, some businesses can operate etc has to be just postponed.

The Europeans are looking to the middle of May, 2020. 
That is FOUR WEEKS away.
Posted by Syed Akbar Ali 

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