Bn S Pss Tactics Played A Part In Kimanis Win

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ANALYSIS | BN's Mohamad Alamin has bagged the Kimanis by-election by a comfortable majority of around 2,029 votes, significantly larger than the 156-vote margin secured by Anifah Amin in the now-voided vote for the seat in the 14th general election in 2018
Despite holding the reins of the state government, Sabah Chief Minister Shafie Apdal was unable to propel Warisan's Karim Bujang to victory
Tellingly, the semi-urban seat of Kimanis had been held for many years by Anifah, the brother of Shafie's arch-rival and long-time Sabah chief minister Musa Aman

Those who viewed the polls as a proxy war between Musa and Shafie did point out that the battle was being held in what had been one of Musa's strongholds, far away from Shafie's base of north-eastern Sabah
What caused the defeat
BN made the Sabah Temporary Pass (PSS) a major issue and even though both candidates are Muslim bumiputera, it seemed to have an impact on the non-muslim bumiputera voters scarred by "Project IC"
It is likely they bought into the fear-mongering of the BN narrative that the PSS would lead to immigrants gaining Malaysian citizenship and outnumbering locals
The PSS is the new document that the Immigration Department will issue to migrants, replacing three existing documents, namely the IMM13, the "Burung-burung" cards and census certificates
The PSS was actually intended to streamline the bureaucratic process and allowing for better documentation of migrants in the state. Intended as a government initiative to tackle the problem of document forgery in Sabah, it became an albatross around Warisan's neck
In the Simpangan voting district where the non-Muslim bumiputera community represents 73.52 percent of the voters, there was a swing of 11.5 percent from Warisan to BN. Similarly in Bandau, where the community has a 74 percent presence, there was also a double-digit swing away from Warisan
Unifying effectVoters might also have swung heavily towards BN as top Kadazandusun Murut leaders such as Joseph Pairin Kitingan (below) and his brother Jeffrey came out to campaign for the opposition whereas Warisan did not have leaders of similar statures and was perhaps too reliant on Shafie to deliver
The brothers Kitingan had competed against each other in GE14 two years ago, and their united front, along with that of current PBS president Maximus Ongkili (who is also their nephew) may have been a tipping point
BN also managed to draw Anifah back in the fold to campaign for Mohamad even though the former had quit Umno to be an independent. Former chief minister Yong Teck Lee and his Sabah Progressive Party were also drawn in
Thus BN was able to build a wide coalition of anti-Warisan/Harapan forces which might provide a blueprint for future political cooperation
There was also some tactical acumen displayed by the manner in which BN played down its Muafakat Nasional cooperation with PAS - which has a strong pull factor in the peninsula but is rather less welcome in Sabah and Sarawak where PAS is viewed as an extremist party
Rebirth of Sabah UmnoTop Umno personalities like president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, deputy president Mohamad Hasan and ex-premier Najib Abdul Razak were part of BN's hard-hitting wave of ceramah speakers and also helped bring voters out in large numbers
Indeed, the voter turnout of 79.92 percent proved to be the highest of the 10 by-elections that have been held since the 2018 general election
Additionally, local Sabah Umno leaders such as Bung Moktar Radin and Abdul Rahman Dahlan also relished their role of the underdog and proved that far from being killed off by mass defections last year, Sabah Umno is very much alive and kicking
An emotional Abdul Rahman admitted to shedding tears as Sabah Umno fought back after being almost completely decimated when as many as 16 state representatives and six MPs jumped ship, mostly to join Sabah Bersatu
Indeed, while many were previously predicting the end of Umno in Sabah, Kimanis could prove to be the start of a rebuilding campaign that could see a new leadership under Bung and Abdul Rahman developing into a formidable force
Chinese less of a factorNoticeably, while Chinese voters gave DAP an easy victory in last May's Sandakan by-election, they were not really a factor in Kimanis this time around
Chinese were the majority in Sandakan, representing 51 percent of the electorate, while they were only four percent in Kimanis. Even so, Membakut and Simpangan where their numbers are larger, saw a significant swing from Warisan to BN
Interestingly, most pundits and research groups like the Ilham Centre got their predictions wrong. They predicted a narrow win for Warisan on the back of Shafie's personal charisma, the propensity of Sabahan voters to go with the incumbents to ensure continued development for the state and also because Karim was viewed as a friendlier man than Mohamad
None of these factors appeared to have impacted significantly on Kimanis voters
It's worth noting that while national issues were downplayed as a factor, Kimanis continues an alarming trend of five defeats in six by-elections for the federal government headed by Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad. - Mkini

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