A Chinese View Of What Happened In The Cameron Highlands By Election

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It is therefore unlikely that voters have abandoned PH, or that PH is less popular than before. In fact, there is a slight increase of support for PH. Joshua Woo, Malay Mail Online
Some said that PH has lost the non-Malay votes at Cameron Highlands because failed to deliver after GE14. Others said that BN-PAS partnership has managed to win Malay votes by exploiting racial and religious sentiment.
I think the data gives a slightly different picture. The voter turnout rate for the by-election is 68.79 per cent. This is 10.21 per cent less than GE14’s 79 per cent.
Now, assuming voters at Cameron Highlands voted the same party as they did 8 months ago, the scoresheet for the by-election should be the following (deduct 10.21 per cent from GE14 results):
BN: 9,255
PH: 8,718
PAS: 3,221 (if PAS had contested)
Other/independent: 683
The official by-election results show:
BN: 12,038 (+2,783)
PH: 8,800 (+82)
PAS did not contest
Other/independent: 590 (-93)
There is difference of about 449 votes between the total valid vote in the expected scoresheet (21,877) and actual results (21,428). Nonetheless, these data give some rough idea of the change in voting pattern.
Three things we can take note by comparing the expected scoresheet and the actual results.
First, BN’s gain votes from PAS voters, but not all. Through the fanning of racial and religious sentiment, the BN-PAS partnership should get PAS’s 3,221 votes but they were short of 438.
The shortage could be voters defecting from BN or PAS. Regardless which party they defected from, it shows that the racial and religious exploitation did not work on them.
Second, PH has gained marginal increase of 82 votes. Probably half of those who have voted for others/independent in GE14 have cast their ballot for PH at the by-election, while the other half are defectors from BN or PAS.
It is therefore unlikely that voters have abandoned PH, or that PH is less popular than before. In fact, there is a slight increase of support for PH.
Third, the Cameron Highlands by-election has probably set the political trajectory until GE15. We can expect more BN-PAS partnership and heightened exploitation of racial and religious sentiment. Even though there will be defectors, the combined voter bank renders the partnership as strategic for their political survival.
We can also expect PH to work harder to deliver their election promises to gain more support, and strategise to increase defectors from BN-PAS partnership.
 

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