Trump S Role In The Israel Hamas Ceasefire

---

As the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, scheduled to commence on Jan 19, 2025, approaches, it is essential to examine the potential impact of president-elect Donald Trump on this event and Middle East security.
Considering Trump’s past foreign policy actions, especially those concerning Israel, alongside the wider geopolitical environment, his prospective role in shaping the ceasefire and future peace initiatives is intricate and layered.
Historical influence
Trump’s initial term as president was characterised by a robust endorsement of Israel, a position that resonated with his domestic political supporters and simultaneously altered US foreign policy, thereby impacting the wider dynamics of the Middle East.
Key actions during this period included the formal acknowledgement of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, the transfer of the US embassy to that city, and the withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement.
These measures solidified his rapport with Israeli leadership and exemplified his overarching “America First” philosophy in international relations.
Additionally, the Trump administration facilitated the Abraham Accords, which established normalised relations between Israel and various Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco.
This initiative was presented as a significant transformation towards a more stable Middle Eastern landscape, shifting the emphasis from the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian conflict to a broader framework of regional collaboration, encompassing joint security efforts and economic partnerships.
Impact on ceasefire
As president-elect, Trump is poised to significantly shape the dynamics surrounding the ceasefire anticipated this month, even before his formal inauguration.
His established rapport with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, coupled with his reluctance to engage in multilateral discussions involving adversarial entities such as Hamas, indicates that his strategy regarding any prospective ceasefire may markedly diverge from those of his predecessors.
Historically, Trump’s foreign policy has leaned towards unilateral or bilateral engagements, emphasising direct negotiations with principal stakeholders over broader international consensus-building initiatives.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin NetanyahuThis distinctive approach could affect both the negotiation and implementation of the ceasefire.
Given his consistent advocacy for robust support of Israel in its confrontations with Palestinian groups, Trump may promote a ceasefire that prioritises Israeli objectives while advocating for minimal concessions from the Palestinian side.
Furthermore, his policy stance might include enhancing Israel’s security framework, potentially through augmented military assistance or intelligence collaboration, thereby ensuring that Hamas does not gain a favourable position post-ceasefire.
Nevertheless, Trump has also articulated concerns regarding “endless wars” and military entanglements, particularly in the context of the Middle East.
Should the ceasefire present a viable pathway for de-escalation, it is conceivable that Trump would endorse a more limited American involvement, concentrating on safeguarding Israeli security without engaging in prolonged military operations.
This shift could lead to a reassessment of US policy in the region, potentially encouraging other nations to assume roles that the US might opt to avoid.
The Abraham Accords
The Abraham Accords, recognised as a pivotal achievement in Trump’s foreign policy, have the potential to significantly reshape security dynamics in the Middle East, particularly concerning the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
The establishment of normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations has introduced new security considerations, prompting some Arab states to prioritise countering regional threats, such as Iran, and pursuing economic benefits over their traditional support for Palestinian factions.
These accords may influence the responses of Arab states to the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Although there remains considerable public backing for Palestinian rights across many Arab nations, the emergence of private partnerships and security collaborations with Israel could empower these states to apply pressure on Hamas or serve as intermediaries in future discussions.
This evolution may foster a more equitable regional strategy regarding the conflict, potentially aiding in the long-term stabilisation of the ceasefire.
Moreover, Trump’s endorsement of these accords could strengthen the collective stance against Iran, a principal backer of Hamas, thereby redefining the security framework of the Middle East.
In this light, a ceasefire could be perceived not merely as a temporary solution to the Israel-Hamas conflict, but as a strategic chance to realign the region’s security priorities, potentially diminishing the influence of adversarial entities such as Iran.
The challenges
A ceasefire influenced by Trump may yield a temporary tactical advantage by ceasing hostilities between Israel and Hamas; however, its long-term implications for the security dynamics of the region remain ambiguous.
His policies, particularly his unwavering support for Israel, have often been perceived as intensifying existing divisions rather than alleviating the fundamental tensions in the area.
Israel bombing of Al-Aqsa Hospital in Gaza, Oct 14, 2024.In a wider geopolitical framework, any ceasefire negotiated under Trump’s auspices is unlikely to tackle essential issues fuelling the Israel-Palestinian conflict, including the status of Jerusalem, the prospects for Palestinian statehood, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Failing to confront these critical matters may render the ceasefire a fleeting arrangement, with the potential for renewed violence once the political impetus for maintaining peace wanes.
Moreover, Trump’s diplomatic strategy, characterised by a mix of unilateral and transactional approaches, could alienate significant international players, such as the United Nations and the European Union, who may perceive his policies as biased or unjust.
This perception could hinder the prospects for a sustainable resolution and exacerbate regional instability.
Shift in global security dynamics
In the realm of Middle Eastern security, the potential ramifications of Trump’s leadership on the Israel-Hamas ceasefire may significantly alter the US’ role as a pivotal actor.
Although his administration frequently emphasised a reduction in US military engagements overseas, his rhetoric and policies fostered a perception of unwavering American support for Israel.
As the region grapples with intricate challenges involving Iran, Syria, and various other regional stakeholders, Trump’s return to power and his approach to the ceasefire could convey to global powers like China and Russia that the US continues to wield considerable influence in shaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
Armed branch of Hamas, Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, 2023Conversely, his leadership might also instigate a reassessment of how regional powers, especially those in the Gulf, align themselves with international actors.
Should the US maintain its unequivocal backing of Israel, certain Middle Eastern countries may pursue closer relations with Russia or China, particularly in the defence and energy sectors.
This shift could result in a reconfiguration of influence, further complicating the security dynamics within the Middle East.
Conclusion
Trump’s impact on the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as well as the overall security framework of the Middle East, is expected to be significant, especially given his steadfast support for Israel and his proposed reconfiguration of regional security arrangements.
Although the current ceasefire may offer a brief respite from hostilities, his approach could either foster temporary stability or intensify enduring conflicts if fundamental issues are not addressed.
His second term will play a crucial role in determining the security dynamics of the region, with his policies concerning Israel and Palestinian groups likely to shape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East for the foreseeable future. - Mkini
R PANEIR SELVAM is the principal consultant of Arunachala Research & Consultancy Sdn Bhd (Arrescon), a think tank specialising in strategic national and geo-political matters.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.

---