The Ayatollahs Bluffing Is Falling Apart

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 First here is something about Iran written by Syed Azidi Syed Abdul Aziz whom I last met circa 2008-2009. 
 

Sheikh Kickdefella
 
At that time we worked together on taking down Mr Clean. He created excellent graphics (movie poster style) in a blog called 'Sheikh Kickdefella' which took accurate shots at  the not so clean Mr Clean. Syed Azidi is now a Dato and is a big time movie director (pengarah filem, dua anugerah Festival Filem Malaysia). Congrats bro. 
 
*The Great Persian Bluff — When Tehran Burns and the Sky Remains Calm*

By Syed Azidi Syed Abdul Aziz
Having walked the streets of Tehran and observed the evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, I’ve reflected deeply on how recent events have exposed the widening gap between Iran’s rhetoric and its actual strategic posture.

In this analysis, I share my personal observations and professional reflections on why Iran’s military image — particularly its missile capability, air defence, and ideological narrative — is crumbling under sustained pressure, while Israel’s precision and intelligence-led strategy continues to reshape the regional balance.

This is not about partisanship. It’s about understanding how reality has caught up with propaganda.

I once had high hopes for Iran. I walked the streets of Tehran, visited its museums, saw the elegance of its Persian identity — European in its soul, distinct from its Arab neighbours. But what I also saw was a society disconnected from its rulers. The clerics are isolated.
Most Iranians, especially the youth, do not support the regime. They admire the West, dress in European fashion, and long for the dignity and freedoms of the past.
What we are witnessing today is the exposure of Iran’s bluff — not only militarily, but ideologically.


In recent conflicts, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles. Yet little damage was recorded. Reporters could stand at impact sites just minutes later — no flames, no structural devastation, just shallow craters in the ground. The attacks were loud, but ineffective. A show of quantity, not quality.Meanwhile, Israeli strikes — fewer in number — have produced devastating results. As of the latest wave, nearly 300 targets were hit. Fires raged for hours. Strategic command centres were reduced to ash. Senior military leaders were killed in minutes. And astonishingly, Israel released video footage of Mossad operatives marking targets from within Iran itself.

This isn’t just military success. It’s an open declaration: “We are here. And we are not afraid.”

Iran’s air defence? Effectively gone. Since late 2024, repeated Israeli strikes have dismantled much of its radar coverage. Despite clear warnings, Iran failed to protect its skies or leadership. It shows not just a failure of readiness, but a fundamental strategic weakness.

The Islamic Republic built its image on resistance, missiles, and martyrdom. But now, its proxies are degraded, its deterrence is lost, and its enemies strike at will. Iran speaks of retaliation. Yet the world sees the difference: when Iran fires, the skies stay calm. When Israel fires, Tehran burns.

This is no longer about military capability alone. It is about legitimacy. The people of Iran are growing restless. The regime feels distant. And if pressure continues — both from within and without — we may not see another revolution, but a slow disintegration of a regime that no longer holds the nation’s soul.
 
My Comments: I will be posting something about the Iran-Israel shootout after this. Those 100 drones sent up by Iran yesterday have all been shot down over Jordan, Iraq and even over Syria. Some of the over 100 ballistic missiles got through and have killed one person in Tel Aviv. More of that later. Let me repeat what I have said before. In picking a fight with Israel, the Ayatollahs have really bitten off much more than what they can chew. The Ayatollahs have no more interest in "Palestine", Gaza or 'liberating' the Al Aqsa Mosque than you may have in the mating habits of the polar bears in the South Pole  (there are no polar bears in the South Pole, they live around the North Pole). Neither do the Ayatollahs care about Syria, Lebanon or the Yemen.  What the Ayatollahs really care about is justifying their legitimacy to be dictators over Iran without any  real democratic process. There is no democracy in Iran. The most powerful leader is the Supreme Leader who is appointed for life. Since 1979 there have been only TWO supreme leaders in Iran ie Khomeini (beginning 1979) and now Ali Khamenei (since 1989). Any leader who can prevail for 36 years is a dictator. To justify their lording it over the Iranian people without a democratic process the Ayatollahs need optics. Photo ops. Or media coverage. Or publicity. Or PR stunts. And especially when they have screwed up the rest of Iran. The economy is in the dumps, unemployment is sky high, inflation is sky high, the currency is worth almost nothing. Their popularity among the Iranian people has been down in the dumps for a very long time. So 'lets liberate the Al Aqsa Mosque', 'lets liberate Palestine', 'lets fight for our Shia brothers in Yemen, Syria, Bahrain' became PR stunts for the Ayatollahs  to claim some legitimacy as the champions of Shia Islam. And more importantly to divert the Iranian peoples' attention from their increasingly miserable lives. Believe me folks, there is nothing more to the Ayatollahs.  And they chose the least risky and the most cost efficient methods to 'liberate Palestine', 'liberate the Al Aqsa Mosque' and fight for the Shias around the world - by using proxies. Especially those proxies who were themselves suffering serious legitimacy issues.  Hezbollah in Lebanon fit the bill perfectly. Hezbollah was never a democratic outfit. They were led by a mad mullah Hassan Nasrallah from 1992 until he was killed last year. That was 32 years. As long as the Ayatollahs supplied him with millions of US Dollars each year, he used it to buy legitimacy among the Shias in Lebanon. And the success of Hezbollah in Lebanon boosted the image of the Ayatollahs back in Teheran.  Exactly the same arguments held for the Ayatollahs supporting Bashar Assad in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen and the Hamas in Gaza. None of them were democratic and none of them had legitimacy to rule.  When the Ayatollahs supported them with money and weapons, it helped Assad, the Houthis and Hamas gain more traction with their own supporters. It was a Mutual Admiration Society.  Hamas is Muslim Brotherhood and therefore fanatically anti-Shia but Hamas was fighting Israel.  And Israel was the Ayatollahs biggest PR stunt back home in Iran. In Iran (and throughout the Islamic world) anti-Israel, anti-Jew, anti-zionist, anti America made good front page coverage any day of the week. It boosted the image of the Ayatollahs. Maybe the Iranian people could forget what they could not have for lunch. Then the ayatollahs made a few serious mistakes. They began investing billions of US Dollars on their nuclear research 'for peaceful purposes only'.  With massive nuclear research facilities dotted throughout Iran.  This nuclear map below is incomplete. Bushehr is not listed plus a dozen other nuclear sites around Iran. 
The Ayatollahs are making a nuclear bomb. There is absolutely ZERO doubt about it. Then the Ayatollahs kept repeating 'Israel will cease to exist after 2040'. That is only 15 years away.  They would certainly have the nuclear bomb way before 2040. Then they made those fatal mistakes: In April 2024, the Ayatollahs launched more than 300 projectiles – including around 170 drones and over 120 ballistic missiles at Israel. Almost all were shot down. None of them caused any real damage. One 12 year old Muslim Bedouin girl was seriously injured but she fully recovered from her injuries. This was the first direct attack by the Ayatollahs against Israel. This was not using proxies anymore.  In October 2024 the Ayatollahs launched another 200 missiles against Israel. Again nothing happened.  So the Israelis became more serious about what they should do about the Ayatollahs. Hence their Operation Rising Lions that is now still ongoing.  Yesterday the Ayatollahs launched another 100 drones - all of which were shot down. They also launched over 100 ballistic missiles  of which a maximum of three reached Israel. One person has been killed in Tel Aviv. The Ayatollahs have really bitten off more than they can chew. All they were looking for were the optics and cheap publicity, and the media coverage to distract the Iranian peoples' attention away from their misery. That they were the saviours of Shia Islam. And they hired low rent proxies Hezbollah, Hamas, Bashar Assad and the Houthis to help them grab the headlines. Now all four are gone or done for. Hezbollah and Hamas are gone, Bashar Assad is gone and the Houthis are getting bombed to the Stone Age.  And now it is the turn of the Ayatollahs.  
  The views expressed here are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.By Syed Akbar Ali 

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