Shadows Of Trade Rafizi S Razor Sharp Rebuttal To Tengku Zafrul

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THE signing of the Malaysia-US Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) on Oct 26, 2025, had ignited a firestorm that is not going to go away that soon.
Beneath the ceremonial smiles and dances of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and US President Donald Trump, the Government is now sitting on the defensive with the plethora of criticism for signing what many are calling a lopsided deal.
Investment, Trade and Industry Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz, the deal’s architect, stepped into the fray with a stark warning: without ART, millions of jobs would vanish, businesses would crumble, and Malaysia’s economic lifeline to America would snap.
His words, delivered in a polished online video, echoed through boardrooms and WhatsApp groups, painting a doomsday scenario of 25% tariffs devouring livelihoods.
Enter Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli, the cerebral former minister of economy in the Madani government, whose Pandan parliamentary seat had long been a launchpad for his data-driven dissections of power.
Rafizi, ever the strategist with a penchant for spreadsheets over soundbites, refused to let the alarm bells ring unchecked. In a gripping podcast episode that dropped like a precision strike, he dismantled Zafrul’s narrative with the precision of a surgeon wielding a scalpel.
On Tengku Zafrul’s statement that millions of people will lose their jobs if Malaysia did not sign the deal, Rafizi says it bluntly: “That is not true.”
Tengku Zafrul had boasted of slashing tariffs from 25% to 19 %— a 6% reprieve — and eliminating duties on 1,711 line items, a bounty supposedly worth billions. But Rafizi wasn’t buying the hype.
“Take an example. From 25% tariff to 19%, there is a reduction of 6%. He also said that there is a reduction of 1,711 line items. Which we do not even know yet. The total volume of exports is about US$5bil. Which is about RM20bil. That does not include chips.
“Our annual export of semiconductors to the US is about RM60bil. So if you take RM20bil and add it to RM60bil, the total export protected by this agreement is RM80bil. We are not even sure about that. Because we do not know about these semiconductors.
“Let’s go back to RM80bil. I want to answer what Tengku Zafrul said.
“If we do not sign this, millions of jobs will be lost. That is not true. Let’s say that RM80bil, we still have 25% tariff. Not the 19% that we signed. So 6% price hike for Malaysian goods.
“Let’s say it reduces our competitiveness by about 20%. That is different from the 6% price. We lose 20% market share. But let’s say you take 20%. That is 20% of RM80bil.
“So the real value of this agreement is about RM20bil. So if there is an impact on our industry, it is not about millions of jobs being lost, like Tengku Zafrul said. We will lose competitiveness of maybe 20% of our exports.”
He accused the government of wielding “fear tactics”, adding that he also said he did see the Government being straightforward.
The ART saga, he argued, had metastasised into a national obsession, festering for over two weeks without a salve of credible clarity.
“The rule of thumb is this. If an issue becomes a national issue, if the issue is discussed and discussed, and the government cannot provide a convincing answer for more than two weeks, basically you have lost it.”
What is Rafizi saying? We put this in simple steps:
Total exports protected by the deal: About RM80bil (RM20bil normal goods + RM60bil semiconductors).Without the deal: the US would slap a 25% tariff on these goods.With the deal: The Tariff drops to 19% → only a 6% difference (25% – 19% = 6%).Effect of that 6% extra cost: It makes Malaysian goods less competitive in the US. Rafizi estimates this could cause Malaysia to lose up to 20% of the market share (not just 6%, because buyers may switch to cheaper options).Real value at risk: 20% of RM80bil = RM16bil (he rounds to RM20bil).Conclusion
The deal only saves ~ RM16bil to RM20bil in lost sales.It does not protect “millions of jobs” as Tengku Zafrul claimed.Job losses would come from that smaller RM20bil slice, not the full RM80bil.Bottom line
Tengku Zafrul exaggerated. The deal helps but it’s not a do-or-die saviour of millions of jobs. —  Focus Malaysia

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