Ringgit Scuba Dive Current Account Surplus Decreased 30 Times Q3 Q4 2023 Exports Fell 35 6 Q4

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Q4 2023 current account surplus paltry RM300m (0.1% of GDP) Q3 2023 current account surplus RM9.1 billion (2% of GDP)Exports fell 35.6% in Q4 2023
 





By Muhammad Abdul Khalid, PhD.

economy grew disappointing 3.7% last year, below govt estimates of 4-5%
last quarter 2023, economy expanded 3%, lower than preceding quarter
economic growth slowed from 3.9% in Oct to 1.4% in Dec 23

diminishing current account balance 
weakness in manufacturing sector
slower tourism recovery post-Covid
weakening ringgit 
slow growth in real wagesDiminishing trade surpluscurrent account balance getting smallerdifference between exports and importsQ4 2023 current account surplus paltry RM300m (0.1% of GDP) Q3 2023 current account surplus RM9.1 billion (2% of GDP)closer to a potential deficitimpact will be severeringgit will be affected will require more US dollars to pay for importsringgit weakest now since Asian Financial Crisis (1998?)
all-time low against Singapore dollar.
In 12 months, ringgit weakened 10% against USD, euro, pound
about 8% against Singapore dollar.Weakness in manufacturing and servicesManufacturing losing momentum.grew just 0.7% in 2023 quarterly basis, shrank by 0.3% in Q4 0.1% decline in Q3services sector notable dip  4.2% growth in Q45% growth in Q3 7.3% growth in Q1TourismChinese have yet to come back in droveshalf as many visitors from China last year  Singapore 40% of tourist arrivals last year.
Declining exportsnet exports have declined  falling 35.6% in Q4 compared to 23% in Q3.major reversal from the 54% growth in Q1What lies ahead2024 will be challengingeconomy highly susceptible to external factors.persistent geopolitical tension affecting Suez Canal  weak global trade will put pressure on purchasing powerWe need policies that boost investors’ confidenceleaders who respect governance hard-working, truthful to the public.Conflicting narrativeshalf-baked statementsMadani rice fluctuations in ringgitdelayed policy reformsconfuse the public, investors undermine confidence, economic stability.2024 will be painful year
My Comments : 
2024 is going to be bad, very bad. 
That war in Ukraine must come to an end. 
Also that war in Gaza and the shooting missiles in the Red Sea.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.By Syed Akbar Ali 

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