Navigating The Trump Havoc

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Three weeks have passed since US President Donald Trump and his team have taken over the White House. It seems longer.
The days since the Jan 20 inauguration have been full of non-stop attacks on congressionally funded political institutions, firing of individuals with alternative views, economic strong-arming of long-standing neighbours/trading partners.
Vulnerable communities, especially persons of colour, transgendered people and women, have also been hit with further marginalisation.
One of Trump’s most harmful salvoes internationally has been to propose a Gaza “takeover” – tantamount to ethnic cleansing – and a recent effort to destabilise the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East.
The level of damage to democracy and US relations with the world has been unprecedented, as the president has turned the office into a “bully” pulpit without any moral standards whatsoever.
Under Trump, the US has taken on a predatory, destructive international role, undermining global institutions and causing serious harm.
So far, Malaysia has had limited direct consequences, but it is still early.
This piece looks at the impact of the Trump administration’s destructive mode to date and offers constructive suggestions for navigating the havoc ahead.
Bully power
On the surface, it may be difficult to see through the noise of the bombardment of announcements. Yet there are four clear shifts in US power over the past three weeks.
First, the Trump administration has abandoned any semblance of the values of a liberal international world order, including respect for equality of opportunity, rule of law, human rights and multilateral cooperation through institutions.
The most obvious illustration is the move to use tariffs as economic coercion runs antithetical to free markets. Yet, other measures, from defunding international financial organisations to leaving the Paris Agreement (again), follow suit.
The irony is that these values helped propel the US to its international position, and this reversal accelerates her decline.
Second, the Trump administration has imploded its soft power. Whatever goodwill it had through forging democratic ties, diversity cultural exchanges and funding of health and education programmes has been given a “doge” hammer.
The effects on this globally have been disproportionately felt by vulnerable communities dependent on critical humanitarian assistance and those being closed off to opportunities for education and exchange.
Within Southeast Asia, two groups have been especially hard hit - the poor dependent on health and food support such as the Rohingya and refugees along the Thai-Myanmar border, and young people.
What has been left in the wake is an increasing dependence on hard power, on bluster and punitive measures that ultimately show weakness, not strength.
Soft power rested on forging people-to-people ties. Under the pretext of budgeting, these have been recklessly damaged.
Third, the Trump administration has showcased poor governance. Perhaps the most obvious illustration is a “pause” in the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, a law prohibiting companies and individuals from bribing foreign officials.
Other examples include allowing access to private data and facilitating transnational crime by removing support for anti-human trafficking, to name just a few.
One of the most worrying is a complete disregard for checks and balances in a democratic system or boundaries that protect rights, including police officers entering into houses of worship in the name of supposedly targeting migrants.
Finally, the Trump administration has adopted a global “manifest destiny” approach, aiming to expand its presence to places such as Greenland, Panama and Gaza.
This rhetoric is very much against the incorrect pre-US election view that Trump would stop wars and be isolationist.
US President Donald TrumpEven if one perceives actions tied to the White House as part of Trump’s swagger and “negotiations”, it reveals a man wanting to feast on the land of others, irrespective of the consequences. The lack of boundaries and decency is manifest.
Malaysia impacted
These four areas – abandonment of principles, undercutting of soft power, bad governance and rise of expansionism – will have profound repercussions. The international order is fundamentally changing.
Even if the Trump havoc measures are curbed back, damage has already been done – not least of which are to those who have been victimised by the freezes in foreign assistance.
For Malaysia, to date, the consequences have been comparatively minimal. She has been spared the Trump eye for now.
This is not to say there have not been consequences. Scholarship and exchange programmes that provided opportunities for Malaysians and promoted diversity have been slashed.
The anti-corruption US Department of Justice unit that helped recover US$1.4 billion (RM6.2 billion) of 1MDB funds for Malaysians was shut down, with future funds now given to build detention centres in Texas.
While Malaysia’s task force on 1MDB asset recovery has stated that this will not deter their efforts, the decision minimally cuts off one avenue for cooperation.
Programmes that have helped to strengthen labour rights in Malaysia have been targeted, as have those that funded shelters for Malaysians trafficked in the region, to name just a few of the “slash and burn” tactics of the Trump administration.
Malaysia, like the rest of the world, has been on tenterhooks for possible tariffs and aftershocks from negative consequences on food security, potential rise in global inflation and increased economic insecurity.
Malaysia’s trade surplus with the US stands at US$22 billion, among the highest in the region.
While trade with the US has dropped as a share of overall trade, the value of exports has risen as Malaysia’s role in global supply chains and derisking/reshoring from China has risen. Malaysian jobs and companies are at stake.
Malaysia has benefited from not being on the Trump radar to date. Arguably, no call with the US president has been a blessing. Sometimes, an appointee not doing his job can have unintended benefits.
Despite her assets, Malaysia remains vulnerable to external pressures and shocks, which arguably the Trump administration is one of them.
She lacks the gross domestic product (GDP) weight of Indonesia or the population numbers of Vietnam or the social ties to the US like that of the Philippines.
It is a new not-great “Make America Great Again” era which challenges practices. Gone are the days when the US competed with China for Malaysia’s favour.
Gone are the days where one country can be “neutral” in geopolitical competition and uncertainty. Strategies of “balancing” and “hedging” have less relevance.
This is a period of Trump exclusion, not inclusion. It remains to be seen how “sensitive” the Trump administration will be to choices such as Brics and issues in the Middle East. Worrying has been a Trump pattern of targeting smaller countries such as Colombia.
Let cooler, strategic heads prevail
What can be done in this era of reactive US geopolitics, where the aim is to cause reactions and overreactions?
Now more than ever, there is a need to make smart choices, think strategically and coolly assess Malaysia’s interests in protecting her economy and jobs and in access to the markets and technological cooperation she wants for her growth and prosperity.
A practical, transactional lens needs to be integrated with principles that build on protecting democracy and strengthening international cooperation.
A “wait and see’ approach may not allow enough time to react, especially when emotions run high in Trumpist rhetoric that aims to provoke.
Canada and Mexico had been planning their responses to the tariff threats for months.
Beyond a clear-headed strategy, it is crucial to have experienced diplomatic representation in Washington DC and to build on long-standing ally relationships in the security, business and civil society communities.
A start is to recognise that America should not be fully equated with Trump, that nearly half of America voted against Trump and even higher numbers oppose many of the destructive - and in many cases illegal - measures being carried out in the past three weeks.
We are entering a new global geopolitical reality, with its consequences evolving. Assumptions and “business as usual” need to be rethought.
Lessons from Trump 1.0 showcased a year of chaos before settling into a new equilibrium where Malaysia managed to expand her investment, grow her economy and deepen her democracy in 2018 in the face of opposing global trends.
The last three weeks have shown that Trump 2.0 is not the same as his first administration.
Minimally, the intensity of new conditions calls for more proactive responses and planning, implemented with caution, care and calculation.
Anything less risks the havoc abroad having a greater impact on Malaysia. - Mkini
BRIDGET WELSH is an honorary research associate of the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute, a senior research associate at Hu Fu Center for East Asia Democratic Studies, and a senior associate fellow at The Habibie Centre. Her writings can be found at bridgetwelsh.com.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.

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