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The coalition of three biggest Malay political parties – UMNO, PPBM and PAS – will most likely win the next 15th General Election. The only uncertainty is the emergence of young voters, thanks to electoral reforms passed by the Malaysian Parliament in 2019 to reduce the voting age to 18 from 21. This new “untested” vote bank theoretically can vote latest by July 2021.
There will be about 7.8 million new young voters in the electoral roll by the year 2023, a whopping 50% increase as compared to some 14 million voters at the 14th General Election in May 2018. But based on government’s recent claims that the decision to lower the voting age to 18-years-old was a mistake, it means Muhyiddin regime is extremely fearful of the young voters. While the figures are unknown, at least 1-million voters of those aged between 18 and 21 will be eligible to vote by July this year. Therefore, Prime Minister Muhyiddin would try to call for a snap election before this date, or at least try to cook up some dirty tricks to disqualify the young voters. Muhyiddin, who snatched power in a coup in March 2020, could not shake off his “traitor” image.
But the backdoor prime minister’s challenge isn’t the young voters alone. His biggest nightmare is three-cornered or even multi-cornered contests. At best, Muhyiddin’s fragile Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition has to face Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH). At worst, his PN would face Muafakat Nasional (consisting of BN and PAS Islamist Party) and PH. Clearly, it would be a double blow if the new army of young voters do not overwhelmingly vote for PN and at the same time, BN quits at the eleventh hour. As the prospect of multi-cornered contests increase, Muhyiddin reportedly threw ultimatum at tantrum-throwing ally BN. The PM demanded an answer by March 1 whether UMNO wants to contest the general election as part of PN or not. But why should UMNO give Muhyiddin’s party, PPBM, the pleasure of an easy path to strategizing an election campaign or seat allocation? Instead of revealing its cards, UMNO prefers to play the victim card – frustrates and provokes the premier to boot the party. The naughty tactic is to constantly flip-flop and drag its feet on an official decision whether to work with PN or otherwise.
The longer Muhyiddin waits, the greater the economic impact and displeasure of Malay youths would have on his backdoor regime, which has already lost its legitimacy since the withdrawal of support from several UMNO warlords early this year. Mr Muhyiddin’s popularity drops like a rock due to his mishandling of Coronavirus pandemic and mismanagement of the economy.

Under Perikatan Nasional, unemployment rate has skyrocketed to 4.8%, foreign direct investments (FDI) has dropped by 68%, some 32,000 small-and-medium-businesses have closed down, Fitch Ratings’ has downgraded Malaysia’s credit rating from A- to BBB+ and economy – GDP – has plunged by 5.6% – the worst contraction since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis.
Despite PN’s chest-thumping and gloating about a Malay-Muslim centric PN government, young Malays could see clearly how the clueless and incompetent backdoor regime practises double standards, hypocrisy and abuse of power. Even if Muhyiddin is still relatively popular as an individual, the coalition is a disaster as a team. People only see clowns in Perikatan Nasional.
To lend credence that PN under Muhyiddin leadership is on self-destruction mode, or at least on its way to a three-cornered contest in the coming nationwide election, former PM Najib has just spoken. After rubbishing rumours of UMNO-DAP-PKR partnership last month, he now says it is not impossible that UMNO can work with parties that have been labelled as political “enemies”. Najib says politics is the art of the possible, drawing his conclusion to the unthinkable cooperation between arch-enemy Mahathir Mohamad and Anwar Ibrahim in a political alliance to bring down Barisan Nasional. Of course, the cunning and untrustworthy crook could be playing psychological games – hoping to lure Mr. Moo to interfere and reverse his guilty verdict.
Not only a seemingly mighty and invincible PN may lose UMNO, it might lose PAS as well at the last minute, no matter how much the Islamist party president Hadi Awang currently bootlicks Muhyiddin Yassin. If UMNO indeed decides to quit PN and goes separate ways, the greedy fake holy men in PAS will most likely bet on UMNO to win the federal government.
It’s not rocket science why PAS will abandon PPBM in favour of UMNO when push comes to shove. Among the three, UMNO possesses the most powerful and comprehensive grassroots and machinery, follows by PAS. Muhyiddin’s party lacks not only loyal grassroots support and established networks, but also does not have good candidates to be fielded at the next general election.
The belief that PAS will eventually betray PPBM is one of the reasons why 143 out of 191 UMNO divisions have decided not to work with PPBM (Bersatu) in the next election. Despite Najib’s 1MDB scandal and unpopular GST (goods and services tax) implementation, UMNO still managed to win 54 parliamentary seats and 2.5-million votes – the highest among all parties. 
Even if PAS is dumb enough to stick with Muhyiddin like a parasite, UMNO-led BN still believes it could do better than 2018, its lowest point, where the coalition captured 79 seats in the Parliament, before massive defections and disintegration. This explains why some UMNO MPs were confident of even going solo, without Muafakat Nasional partner PAS.
In fact, the latest rumours of a split in PAS smell hidden hands of either UMNO or PPBM to neutralize the Islamist party. Both UMNO and PPBM understood that if either of them cannot have the PAS’ bloc of support, then neither of them should have it. If PAS could be bribed with merely RM90 million, it’s warlords could easily be bought again cheaply by anyone.
It was already bad that PPBM under Mahathir won only 13 of the 52 seats they contested at the 2018 General Election, not to mention the pathetic 718,648 votes won with help from allies in PH. It becomes worse that PPBM under Muhyiddin comprises defectors or traitors from UMNO and PKR like Home Minister Hamzah Zainudin and gay Senior Minister Azmin Ali. Yes, the mere mention of Azmin Ali will immediately spark furious over the PKR traitor, whose leaked gay sex video performance at Four Points Sheraton Hotel in Sandakan, Sabah, is as toxic, if not more, than Najib’s 1MDB scandal. You don’t need to try very hard to provoke UMNO supporters with the idea of Azmin being groomed as the next prime minister.
It’s both interesting and amusing the three Malay-Muslim parties that are the leading factions in the ruling PN alliance have started fighting with each other in less than 1 year of governing the country. Not even an offer of the post of deputy prime minister could satisfy UMNO. And that’s certainly good news to the opposition Pakatan Harapan – provided they stay united.
The real battle is actually between Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan. The four biggest contenders are PKR, DAP, UMNO and PAS, with each in control of between 16% and 20% of total votes. If UMNO somehow aligns itself with opposition PKR and DAP, it will be game over for PPBM and PAS before the election could even start.
Whether you like or hate UMNO, the party had been ruling the country for 61 years since independence in 1957 before stunningly lost its power to Opposition PH at the May 2018 general election. While it’s true UMNO president Zahid Hamidi is an empty vessel, his former boss Najib Razak is definitely not an idiot. He knows which button to press to provoke Malays against PPBM. - FT
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