Anwar S Injudicious Rm10b Waste To Curry Voter Favour

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Midway through his first-ever term as prime minister, Anwar Ibrahim, in whom much hope was vested, has shown himself to be neither a statesman nor an astute politician.
This is evident with the latest ill-advised handouts and wastage, which I estimate at over RM10 billion (see table below), to ingratiate himself with the public.
It’s almost like a pre-election handout a la his newfound bosom buddy, Umno. Except that there is no immediate election on the horizon.
Hang on, but there is - the Sabah state election must be held at the latest by December this year or January next year, some six months away.
ADSThe five-year mandate for the current assembly, which held its first sitting on Nov 12, 2020, will expire on Nov 11, 2025, according to reports. Polls must be held within two months of that date.
But there is nothing to stop a state election from being called at any time now. All it requires is for the Sabah chief minister, an Anwar ally, to call for it and set the ball rolling. It’s about right timing, really and setting the stage for it. That’s the name of the game.
Let’s look at the three main handouts he gave one by one - RM100 one-off aid to purchase groceries for all those eligible to vote (above 18 years old); RON95 prices (already lower than Saudi Arabia’s) will be lowered by six sen to RM1.99 per litre while tolls won’t be increased this year; and Sept 15 being declared a public holiday.
RM100 handout
Note that this is NOT a targeted subsidy - it goes to everyone above the age of 18, also the voting limit. The question is, why has it not only been limited to those who truly deserve it? If they do that, they can distribute the aid to those who deserve it most - the 20 percent bottom earners who need it most.
From official figures and estimates, the percentage of the population above 18 can be put quite accurately at above 70 percent. From a total population of 34 million, that amounts to 23.8 million people.
Since Malaysians like anything free, few will turn down such an offer.
The total bill will be RM2.38 billion (23.8 million x 100), of which only 20 percent or RM476 million will go to the really needy, while RM1.913 billion will go to people who mostly don’t need it.
If only the poor had been targeted, they would receive RM500 each, much better, right?
Anwar said it will amount to RM2 billion, the figure we shall use, presumably because he expects a significant number of eligible voters not to accept. I know I won’t and many of my friends won’t either.
Still, it’s always nice to have a handout. If there is a household of five, of whom, say, three are over 18, an RM300 angpow at the right time, close to voting, as in the case of Sabah, is nice - that much more groceries.
It benefits all voters equally - the poor, the not so poor, the middle class and the rich - all voters.
ADSPerhaps Anwar, like the ill-fated Najib Abdul Razak (he was wrong) before in 2018, believes that cash is king, meaning it will buy votes.
But such angpows are at least morally - if not legally - wrong. The PM should not be throwing RM2 billion around as small change when it is badly needed to shore up dwindling government finances - highly irresponsible.
Malaysians have become much smarter - they take the money and vote for the lesser evil. Anwar’s hope is that he is the lesser of the lot, which I would liken to lying on the floor with a sword dangling on a thread above him when evil gets heavier.
RON95 at RM1.99 a litre, no toll increase
Why lower petrol prices at this time when our prices are already among the lowest in the world and even lower than many countries that produce much more oil than us such as Saudi Arabia?
I thought oil subsidy rationalisation was a cornerstone of our economic restructuring. What happened?
Who will benefit? The poor mostly use motorcycles, which means the benefit to them will be very little. But the game of getting positive public opinion is also about show, even if it is meaningless. Spinners believe you can talk your way out of anything.
Finally, who asked for this reduction anyway? No one complained because our prices, when compared to the rest of the world, are ridiculously low. So I did a search, and there was one person who did - ask for a reduction I mean.
The president of the Federation of Lorry Associations of Sabah and Sarawak president Ling Kah Kiong said the two states must be excluded from plans to remove petroleum subsidies.
Well, Anwar did one better than that by increasing subsidies, hoping to keep East Malaysians and especially Sabahans satisfied.
This too is not a targeted subsidy (but who cares?) and therefore will benefit everyone, rich or poor, but the rich more because they use more. Anwar is targeting benefits to the largest number of people possible - the more the better - hoping to translate it to votes.
Delaying toll increases basically means that the government will pay the toll operators for the delay. Anwar estimates this at RM500 million, the figure we use in the table.
Working backwards from the petroleum subsidy of RM20 billion a year and the subsidy of 50 sen per litre, I estimate RON95 petrol usage at 40 billion litres (20 divided by 0.5) a year.
The subsidy increase costs the government RM2.6 billion (six sen x 40 billion) a year, a wasteful expenditure, and a recurring one. In 10 years, it amounts to RM26 billion! Anwar did not give a figure for this.
Extra public holiday
Anwar has blithely announced a day off - Sept 15, a Monday - which will give grateful Malaysians a long weekend as Sept 16 is Malaysia Day. But has he stopped to think what it will cost Malaysia? Obviously not.
Let’s assume 250 working days in a year, as some have. Last year’s gross domestic product (sum of goods and services produced) was RM1.93 trillion. That works out to RM7.7 billion (RM1,930/250) a day.
However, some services continue, and it is not right to assume that the amount of production lost is that much.
Even if we take that into account, one can safely assume it will be at least RM5 billion - that will be the loss of gross domestic product at current prices, meaning unadjusted today’s prices, when you lose one working day.
Total it all up, and the cost of Anwar’s whimsical misadventure is a massive RM10.1 billion, after including the RM2 billion from that ang pow and RM2.6 billion from the increased oil subsidy.
The only reason that such injudicious decisions are being taken is to curry voter favour, first for the Sabah election and for the larger general election which will become due in two and half years but which can be called earlier.
I hope Malaysians show Anwar they can’t be bought just as they showed Najib exactly that in 2018. Cash must never be king when it comes to elections. - Mkini
P GUNASEGARAM says an honest and upright citizenry can eventually defeat the lousiest government.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.

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