Anwar S Delicate Balancing Act In South China Sea Standoff

---

 
China has sent its navy vessels to monitor Petronas as it undertakes exploration activities in Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. (Reuters pic)PETALING JAYA: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s three-day official visit to China at the end of last month was lauded as a resounding success, having strengthened ties with the superpower and secured China’s commitment to invest RM170 billion in Malaysia.
However, Anwar was quickly brought down to earth on his return to Malaysia in early April as he was castigated by his political opponents for kowtowing to China over competing claims in the South China Sea.
On April 6, Perikatan Nasional (PN) chairman Muhyiddin Yassin slammed Anwar over his “careless” remarks on the South China Sea, through which an estimated US$3 trillion (RM13.3 trillion) worth of ship-borne trade passes yearly.
Ads by Kiosked“The prime minister’s statement on Malaysia’s openness to negotiations (with China) could threaten the nation’s sovereignty,” said the former prime minister.
Anwar had told the Dewan Rakyat earlier that Malaysia was “open to negotiations with China” about its concerns over energy activities carried out by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) in the contested area, but stressed he sees the area as Malaysian territory.
The controversy illustrates the delicate balancing act confronting Anwar in resolving the South China Sea question that involves competing claims among Asean member states as well as China and Taiwan.
And that is not even taking into account the area is a battleground of the great power competition between China and the US.
Sovereignty versus energy resources
While the competing nations say their claims are about sovereignty, at the heart of it are the riches beneath the sea – the vast untapped oil and gas resources.
Ads by KioskedAs the Malaysian economy is hugely reliant on its oil and gas assets, the South China Sea is vital to our economic prosperity. And that is the reason why the national oil corporation is undertaking exploration activities there, which has raised China’s ire.
In response, China has sent its naval vessels to “monitor” Petronas as it undertakes exploration in the area.
China’s nine-dash line, with which it claims 90% of the South China Sea, is shaped like the tongue of a cow cutting into the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Brunei, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines.
Akademi Nusantara senior fellow Azmi Hassan said Malaysia has been using diplomatic protest notes, which are akin to negotiations with China, whenever Chinese coast guard vessels enter our EEZ.
“Physical confrontation or military conflict was never the case, and Anwar’s statement on the Kawasari project does not deviate from our foreign policy (of diplomacy) regarding South China Sea claimants,” he told FMT Business.
According to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Chinese coast guard vessels were operating for the past month near Petronas’ Kasawari gas development off Sarawak.
Ads by KioskedThe Kasawari fields holds an estimated three million cubic feet of gas reserves and is expected to start production this year.

The nationalistic hardline option
Analysts that FMT Business spoke to are divided on whether Malaysia should adopt a hardline approach or a more measured, less confrontational approach towards China over the South China Sea.
Universiti Malaya security and strategy analyst Collins Chong is an advocate of taking a hardline stance.
“Malaysia should not choose the path of negotiations, and should instead be firm on its enshrined rights under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to continue its oil and gas and other marine life exploration.
Ads by Kiosked“By consenting to negotiations [with China], it will make us look even weaker,” he said.
UNCLOS is an international agreement that establishes a legal framework for all marine and maritime activities. However, it does not deal with matters of territorial disputes or to resolve issues of sovereignty.
Chong’s hawkish view is at odds with Anwar’s and previous administrations’ more neutral stance in dealing with China.
Given that China is Malaysia’s number one trading partner, joining the anti-China alliance led by the US would be akin to committing economic suicide. If Anwar were to do that, Malaysia can probably kiss goodbye to the RM170 billion investment commitment from China.
Bilateral trade between Malaysia and China hit a record high of US$203.6 billion (RM905.3 billion) in 2022.
China and the US are Malaysia’s top two foreign direct investment contributors, accounting for RM55.4 billion and RM29.2 billion in approved investments in 2022 respectively.
Ads by KioskedMalaysia should learn from the folly of Australia which made the strategic mistake of antagonising China during the administration of prime minister Scott Morrison. This led to China instituting crippling counter measures which badly hit the Australian economy.
Status quo benefits both sides?
Another analyst said that while the situation in the South China Sea may get more acute, Malaysia’s balancing act can be seen as “buying time” in addressing the dispute.
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies adjunct senior fellow James M Dorsey said ultimately Malaysia will have to take a fundamental decision on these claims and either dispute them or not.
“However, fudging the issue at present is in the interest of both China and Malaysia,” he told FMT Business.
“Malaysia doesn’t want to be seen to be choosing sides in the US-China rivalry whilst China wants to get its way without escalating the conflict.”
Ads by KioskedMaking territorial concessions will be a difficult thing for Anwar to do considering he will face significant opposition from the Malaysian public, he noted.
“Anwar’s conciliatory tone, in which he said we were open to negotiations, was unclear. Did he mean Malaysia stands by its right and are willing to talk about it, or are we looking at compromises?”
By Petronas exploring in those disputed areas, Malaysia is already making a statement, he said.
“If we are drilling or exploring, then Malaysia is doing something based on its claim – in that moment, you’re moving away from putting the issue on ice,” Dorsey said.
Wielding the US security card
Chong suggested that Malaysia, being a small power, must strengthen its bargaining chips vis-a-vis China. “This would mean restructuring of economic orientations in reducing short-term reliance on Beijing, and aligning with the West (i.e. the US).”
Ads by KioskedSuch a shift will complement the move by the Philippines, which recently signed an agreement to allow the US access to four military bases in the country, as a counterweight against China in the South China Sea.
He believes Beijing will be desperate to ensure that Malaysia gives no ground to US presence, which will “devastate its grand ambition in the South China Sea”.
“As it is increasingly cornered by renewed US presence in the Philippines, growing overtures to Vietnam, and existing strong military ties with Thailand and Singapore, Malaysia remains a key player that needs defending at all costs by Beijing to avoid an encirclement by the US,” Chong said.
Ironically, the very possibility that Malaysia may throw its lot with the US is a nightmare scenario for China and may well strengthen Malaysia’s hand in any negotiations with China over the disputed areas.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr used the card by giving access to the US to its military bases, and this act will likely have negative repercussions for the country.
Anwar should not be in any hurry to use the US card, as just keeping it close to his chest will give significant leverage to Malaysia in any future negotiations with China. - FMT

---