The Rm250 Billion Question

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1. First of all do all the figures add up to RM250 Billion?   Is it true that the loan moratorium (estimated  to involve RM100 billion worth of loans) is part of this RM250 billion package? 

If so, then the real stimulus is only RM150 billion? Is that right? 
2. The more important question is where is all this money going to come from? The Edge ran an article which says Petronas' dividends may be around RM24 billion - based on an oil price of high US$50s per barrel (??)  

Well folks that is NOT going to happen anymore. 
Because the price of oil is now in the low US$20s per barrel. 
This is only March 2020. 
Nine more months of uncertainty ahead in this year.(ALL OVER THE WORLD the oil industry is running out of storage. DIALOG Group - which runs tank farms - is making a ton of money. Because of the shortage of oil storage facilities analysts say oil prices will "crash again" in April.) 

So do not place too much hope on Petronas' oil earnings this year.

Also income tax, corporate tax and sales tax collections this year are going to shrink.  
So where is this RM250 billion money coming from? Is this on top of that RM300 billion 2020 Budget - which the present government has adopted? (Is it Pakatan or Perikatan ? Do excuse me.) 
3. Here is some copy paste about some parts of the package:

1. RM250 for singles above 21 with income RM2,001- RM4,000
2. RM800 for singles above 21 with income below RM2,0003. 6- month loan deferment for PTPK loans
4. PTPTN loan deferment for 6 months
5. RM600 monthly allowance for healthcare employees
6. RM200 monthly allowance for military, police, customs, immigration
7. RM500 for civil service below Grade 56
8. Pre-retirement withdrawal from account B RM1,500 


10. RM500 one-off payment for e-hailing drivers. Meanwhile taxi drivers receive a one-off payment of RM600 as stated in the previous economic stimulus package.


These 9 points above are just cash handouts. 
4.  Why spend so much money on the Civil Servants? They still get paid their full monthly salaries.
Ok here is some simple arithmetic. Ever since this stay at home began, my family's (three of us now) daily food bill is between RM10 to RM15 maximum - for all three of us.
Simple breakfast (puri with potatoes, some cereal with milk, some fruit - just a few Ringgit). Then lunch is vegetables with some chicken, rasam, rice and more vegetables - also just a few Ringgit. Finger licking delicious. Dinner is scrounge - meaning just put something together. And we are fine. Better than  RM8 nasi campur in Bangsar South (per pax).
So we are saving plenty of money on cooked food. 
Then we are saving on petrol and toll (toll minimum RM10 a day). Our cars have not moved for 10 days now (just don't forget to warm up the engine once every few days.) 
Now these savings will accrue to most Malaysians, especially if you are a Civil Servant. So staying at home saves you a lot of money. Especially for Civil Servants who already have a fixed income. 
So why do you have to give the Civil Servants these extra allowances etc? Gua tak faham lah.
5. Yes there are plenty of other people will need cash help. The daily wages people, the small business people.  Help them fast. Please do it in a timely fashion and do it smoothly. 
Reduce people contact or isi boring across the counter situations to give them money.  Online processing is best with direct online transfer  into bank accounts. No need for direct human contact.
6.  Then the structure of the Wage Subsidy program (next) is debateable:

9. Wage Subsidy Program to help employers retain employees.
government will provide RM600 per month to employees for 3 months. 

This may work for lower level employees who earn say less than RM2000. But it will not work for employees who for example are paid RM5000.
Ok the government subsidises RM600. The employer still has to fork out RM4,400. 
The real issue is THERE IS NO BUSINESS. THIS IS A SHUTDOWN SITUATION - ALL OVER THE WORLD. The employer will NOT have the cashflow to sustain all his employees and at full wages. 
The next point is more scary:
Employers cannot dismiss the workers or order them to take leave without pay for the 3 months following the implementation of the programme. Employers are also not allowed to deduct workers’ existing salaries


Repeat ok :  The real issue is THERE IS NO BUSINESS. THIS IS A SHUTDOWN SITUATION - ALL OVER THE WORLD. The employer will NOT have the cashflow to sustain all his employees and at full wages. 

7.  Then the PM announced RM600 million for the Telcos to provide free internet service. In this morning's 'secondary' media (Star, etc) there is little or no mention of this RM600 million for the Telcos (GLCs and crony companies). I think it is being downplayed.
WHY do we need to give the Telcos RM600 million taxpayers funds for free internet? This is just giving the Telcos "prepaid money" for post-paid services. 
We are fighting the Corona Virus. Surfing the internet for free pornography is not a priority right now.  Please cancel this RM600 million wild horses idea and save that RM600 million.
8.   Then there is mention of RM1 BILLION to get 'farmers' to plant cash crops to be harvested in 3 to 6 months.
Which farmers? Have they had experience growing and harvesting vegetables before? I have a feeling this is NOT going to happen. It is just RM1 billion given away with little return from that RM1 billion.
We have more than enough vegetables and fruits in the country.
It is just that the Police roadblocks are NOT letting the vegetable and fruit lorries through. We read about vegetables from Cameron Highlands being dumped and fruits not getting to market on time.
Money does not grow on trees. Why spend RM1 billion on a 'don't-know-what-will-be-the-outcome' vegetable planting experiment instead of keeping the roads open so that vegetable producers with a proven 100 year track record can keep sending their vegetables and fruits to market?
10.  But what is being done for the direct fight against the Corona Virus?
How about incentives for the production of face masks, personal protection equipment, hand sanitisers etc (according to health standards - not fake mumbo jumbo hand sanitisers ok ?) 
Not much say RM50 million will be more than enough. We are a small country. An incentive for manufacturing companies to produce PPEs. Tak ada pun? Why? Because bangsa kita tak manufacture benda tu semua?? Bangsa itu yang buat benda tu semua. Hmmm.. is this the scenario?  Mampus pi lah kalau tak cukup face masks and PPEs.
The Ministry of Health got RM500 million. Plus another allocation.
Ok good. Where are the test kits.  Answering 6 questions on a piece of paper (Have you recently sat inside a car for two hours with a Covids 19 positive patient??) is NOT a test.
Test means blood tests, swabs etc. Real science stuff.
PCR ke, anti-bodies detection ke, rapid results ke, not so rapid results ke it does not matter. 
As long as the tests are consistent. I know at least that much science. 
Do not re-invent the wheel. The Chinese, South Koreans, Singapore have been able to control the Corona cases through aggressive testing of the population. The Koreans tested people for Covids 19 at every other street corner. 
You mean despite RM250 Billion there will be no massive scale, on the ground testing for Covids 19?
Even if Pharmaniaga makes a ton of money, even if a test kit costs RM500 a piece, ONE MILLION test kits will cost RM500 million. That is just  0.2% of that RM250 Billion stimulus package.  TWO MILLION test kits will cost RM1.0 Billion. That is 0.4% of the RM250 Billion stimulus package.
If we can test 1 million or 2 million of our people, I believe we can lick this thing.
If we can prioritise testing, identifying positives, isolating and treating positives, then we may NOT NEED this RM250 Billion stimulus package at all.
YAB, Tuan-Tuan please lets keep our sight on the ball. 
PRIORITY NO 1 - We are fighting the Corona Virus.
This is not another round of dishing out easy money time.
And here is another big danger :  Cash handouts will cause price inflation.Especially when food supplies are being restricted (by roadblocks, shutdowns etc).

I will be repeating this again - KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FOOD SUPPLY AND FOOD PRICES. Posted by Syed Akbar Ali 

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