The Fate Of The Middle East Changed When Obama Signed Off On Shale Oil

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 What is happening in the Middle East now is a direct consequence of what President Obama did circa 2012 and 2015.
In 2012 Obama lifted the ban on shale gas drilling in the US. This immediately set the US on course for oil and gas self sufficiency. 
Obama backs shale gas drilling. January 25, 2012.  WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - President Barack Obama on Tuesday pledged support for the U.S. shale gas boom. 
In no time the USA became more than self sufficient in oil and gas. US oil producers then pressured Obama to lift the ban on America exporting oil. This too happened in 2015.


On December 18, 2015, President Obama signed legislation into law that repeals the 40-year-old U.S. ban on crude oil exports. 
From then until today the US became the world's largest oil exporter, ahead of Saudi Arabia or Venezuela. With just a couple of strokes of Obama's signing pen. It also meant that the Middle East, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Palestine issue, the Jewish lobby in Washington all became less urgent for the United States. 
The Arab Spring did not really affect the US. Obama took a more flexible stance towards the ayatollahs in Iran. Obama began withdrawing from Iraq in 2011. They also began to wind down in Afghanistan.
The Arab Spring had weakened so many Arab regimes. Egypt was in turmoil. 

By 2013 the Muslim Brotherhood was overthrown in Egypt and General Fatah Sisi became the next president for life. By this time the Arab Spring began to collapse and became the Arab Hell. The Muslim Brotherhood in Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Syria, Libya, Sudan began to lose their perch. In 2011 the Muslim Brotherhood-controlled Sudan had broken into two. 13 years later in 2024 they are still fighting in "north" Sudan. In 2014 the world oil prices crashed.
Through all this turmoil the only Middle East regime that appeared unscathed was Iran. The ayatollahs helped defeat ISIS in Iraq and Syria. They controlled Lebanon through their proxy Hezbollah. The ayatollahs were promoting violence through their proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Islamic Jihad, Jabhat Nusra and other militants. 
Then in 2018 President Trump  said point blank that without the US security umbrella, Saudi Arabia would not last two weeks. The Arabs saw the red lights flashing.
Enter the Abrahamic Accords in 2020. The Arabs would switch from the US security umbrella to the Israeli security umbrella. The Abrahamic Accords are a simple treaty of peace and friendship. The great significance is that it is a 'general' treaty between the Arabs and the Jews.  The Arabs recognise Israel. Bahrain, Morocco, UAE and Sudan have already signed up. Considering that Egypt (1978)  and Jordan (1994) have separate peace treaties with Israel the Abrahamic Accords now have SIX Arab countries on board. 
Post-2020, Saudi Arabia was on the brink of normalising relations with Israel. The ayatollahs in Iran were really getting uneasy. On September 16, 2022 the Mahsa Amini protests began in Iran which really rattled the ayatollahs. The protests extended into early 2023 and have not fully died down. 
On October 7th 2023 the Ayatollahs ordered Hamas to launch  their attack into Israel. It was a suicidal mission - no doubts about that. The Ayatollahs were and still are desperate. Their objective was to torpedo the Abrahamic Accords. Indeed the Abrahamic Accords have been postponed but they are perhaps more urgently needed now by the Arabs, especially Saudi Arabia than ever before.   The Ayatollahs must have paid hundreds of millions of US Dollars to the Muslim Brotherhood and to Hamas to launch the attack.   For Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood there was no strategic objective that could be achieved other than to commit suicide.  Only the receipt of large sums of money could have paid for the suicide.
True enough Hamas has been destroyed. Ismail Haniyeh and his successor Yahya Sinwar are both dead. It is another defeat for the Muslim Brotherhood. The Hezbollah in Lebanon is also being destroyed.  Their leader Hassan Nasrallah is dead. The Houthi proxies in Yemen are taking a beating.
The ayatollahs fired over 500 missiles directly into Israel - to no use. They killed a single Arab in the West Bank.  

The Israelis have counter attacked and caused significant damage to the ayatollahs. The Israelis even struck a further 200 km east of Teheran to hit another rocket factory in a place called Semnan. The entire Iran has become a free-fly zone for the Israeli airforce.



 
What exactly have the ayatollah's achieved? They should have stuck to their 'hobson yobsons'. The religious people should be locked up inside their madrassas. They will cause less harm to others.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.
By Syed Akbar Ali 

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