Prediction The Next Unity Government Will Be In Sarawak

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That PKR has already declared that it will run in the next Sarawak state election, despite serious objections from GPS, the ruling coalition of Sarawak and PKR’s partner in the unity government, is a sign that what I predict will come true. 
Nehru Sathiamoorthy
I have previously repeatedly predicted that Sabah and Sarawak are not going to get things like 35 percent of the parliament seats or more oil and gas rights until Semenanjung parties, especially PKR, have a commanding presence in Sabah and Sarawak’s political landscape.
That PKR has already declared that it will run in the next Sarawak state election, despite serious objections from GPS, the ruling coalition of Sarawak and PKR’s partner in the unity government, is a sign that what I predict will come true.
There is no reason for the PKR led government in Putrajaya to give away things like 35 percent of the parliament or oil and gas rights – which are things that Putrajaya itself values and wants for itself  – to Sabah and Sarawak, when it gains nothing from it and stands to suffer from significant losses in lieu of the move.
If Putrajaya is to ever give Sabah and Sarawak things like the 35 percent of parliament seats and oil and gas rights, it can only be expected to do it when the same party or coalition that rules in Putrajaya also rules in Sabah and Sarawak.
The vice-president of GPS lynchpin Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu, Abdul Karim Rahman Hamzah has given some vague warning about how PKR’s decision to contest in the Sarawak state election will create disharmony among Sarawak and perhaps even affect GPS’s ties with PH at the federal level, but Karim’s caution is more likely to signal to PKR that Sarawak is afraid of its advance into its territory than it will in causing PKR to reexamine its decision to advance into Sarawak.
PKR has no professional or personal reason to not advance to Sarawak.
Professionally, PKR needs to advance to Sarawak because the results of GE 15 and the subsequent by-elections in the last two years have indicated that the voters in Semenanjung are more or less set in their choices. If the 16th General Election is held in Malaysia today or in the near future, the results will likely mirror the results of the 15th General election, where PKR and its coalition, PH, will barely win by the skin on their teeth, and rule with the threat of PN attempting to collapse their rule forever breathing down their neck.
In order to increase its chances of winning, as well as decisively deter its main opponent, PN, from thinking that it can wrest Putrajaya from its hand, PKR and PH must look east to find more seats to secure its reign.
Personally, GPS is also not a friend of PH. In the aftermath of GE16, GPS actually threw its weight behind PN first, and almost cost Anwar and PH its reign.  GPS also has repeatedly sneered and undermined PH’s reign for the last two years. From disdainfully calling Anwar’s action as the act of a village champion  to saying that Anwar’s coalition, PH, does not exist in Sarawak to speaking with a foreign power like Indonesia to revive the Borneo games, Sarawak (in the words of Khairy Jamalluddin) is increasingly behaving like a country within a country and undermining Anwar’s role as the leader of the federation.
While Abdul Karim is saying that “The unity government is set up on a foundation of trust. Let’s see who will breach that trust,” to indicate that GPS will likely take PKR’s action to contest in Sarawak as an unfriendly act or a breach of trust, Karim’s view that the unity government is set up on the foundation of trust or friendship is without basis.
The unity government is not set up on the foundation of trust or friendship. There is no one in the unity government that trusts anyone. BN doesn’t trust DAP and GPS is certainly no friend of PKR.
The basis of the unity government is actually self interest, and the component of the unity government can only trust each other to the extent that their self interest depends on it, no more, no less.
On that basis, PKR has zero reasons as to why it shouldn’t advance into Sarawak in its next state election. It might be in the self interest of GPS that PKR doesn’t advance into Sarawak, but it is certainly against the self interest of PKR, both professionally and personally, to not attempt to make inroads in Sarawak.
Although Abdul Karim’s warning indicates that GPS will likely retaliate against any move by PH to enter its territory, in practical terms, GPS is unlikely to be able to  retaliate against PH in any meaningful manner, because PH no longer needs the support of GPS to maintain its hold on Putrajaya.
The only real problem that PKR will have in advancing into Sarawak, is the anti-semenanjung sentiment that the Sarawakians have from Semanjung-based parties.
It is because of the anti-semenanjung sentiment that in the 2021 Sarawak state election, PKR failed to win even a single seat in the state assembly despite fielding 28 candidates. 22 of its candidates even lost their deposits.
Fellow PH component Amanah and DAP also fared no better, with Amanah completely wiped out, while Sarawak DAP only managed to defend two of the seven seats it won in 2016.
To counter the anti-semenanjung sentiment which will almost certainly derail its ambition to make an inroad entry into Sarawak, I predict that what PH will do is attempt to split GPS in two in the very near future.
PKR and its partners in PH, be it DAP or Amanah, will almost certainly not be able to overcome the anti-semenanjung sentiment in Sarawak and topple GPS. The only reasonable chance for it to make an inroad into Sarawak, is by splitting GPS into two and supporting one faction of GPS against the other.
If GPS is split into two and Sarawakians have to choose between one half of GPS and the other half of GPS, then it will almost certainly choose the half of GPS that has the support of Putrajaya.
Following this line of thinking, I predict that before the 2026 Sarawak election is called, GPS will probably face infighting within its rank, which will result in it splitting into at least two factions.
PH will likely ally with one of the factions within the split GPS, in order to overcome the anti-semenanjung sentiment that Sarawakians have for Semenanjung parties.
If PH succeeds in its aim, the next state government in Sarawak will most likely be a unity government, that will be headed by the GPS faction that PH supports, in order to appease the Sarawakians anti-semenanjung sentiment, but that GPS faction will likely require the support of PH assemblymen to maintain its reign.
As an incentive to motivate Sarawakians to support such a unity government in Sarawak, I predict that Putrajaya will promise to grant East Malaysia 35 percent of  the parliament seats and more oil and gas rights, only and only if Sarawakians vote to back such a unity government in Sarawak.
If all goes as planned, by the time the 16th general election is called in 2027, the granting of the 35 percent of parliamentary seats to East Malaysia will create a sizable number of new parliamentary seats for Sabah and Sarawak, which PH will then use its influence in the political landscape of Sarawak, to bestow a sizeable number of those seats on itself.
By winning the new seats in the east it bestowed upon itself in GE 16, PH will then be able to create a significant lead between itself and its main rival, PN, and finally remove PN as a threat to its reign, once and for all.
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