Is Repeat Of 2008 Global Economic Crisis Nigh



Economists the world over know that every variable counts, in tilting the economic order into a recession. The latter is defined as a contraction of two quarters
Three of the latest variables or indicators employed to suggest a shift towards a potential global economic recession are: the 0.1 percent contraction of the GDP's of Germany; the projected slow growth of China at 6 percent; and the US and UK government bonds that have seen a spike in the purchases of the 30-year bond, which has not witnessed since 1960
Rana Foroohar, the global financial economist, affirmed yesterday in the Financial Timesthat there are other signs to point to a global economic slowdown; such as the paring down of consumer credit card debts by the American consumers; the lack of any spending spurts in an "unusual” summer; the weak data from the marketing purchasing index in US and Europe

Foroohar may be right on all of the above early-warning signals but still wrong about what will happen
To begin with, the US economy, to its credit is bound to weaken a wee bit since it has been growing non-stop for the last 119 months, often at a clip of 2 percent to 3 per cent. This is based on the records of Geo-political Futures and Maudlin Economics, both of which are backed by seasoned observers, especially George Friedman
For instance, instead of adding 196,000 jobs in the last quarter, which was widely expected by the US economists, the US economy added 170,000 only; a figure once again confirmed by the Financial Times
A shortfall of 26,000 blue and white-collar jobs, while not necessarily helpful, is nevertheless a sign of a US economy that is adjusting quite well to the on-again, off-again Sino-US tariff war that has been delayed to Dec 15, 2019
By Dec 15, if the US and China cannot reach a deal, President Donald Trump is either obliged to slap a final 10 percent tariff, if not more, on China’s US$300 billion exports
When the Dow Jones Index dropped by 800 points on Wall Street just a few days ago, the fear was triggered in the main by the twin possibility of US and Germany slowing down; coupled with the messiness of Brexit
Nikkei Index too shedded some 600 points in light of what happened on Wall Street. Such fears are further overlapped by the massing of paramilitary forces in Shenzhen, China, right across the border from Hong Kong, which seems to imply the wearing down of patience in Beijing, as the demonstrators in Hong Kong has led to the cancellation of close to 1000 flights over the recent days alone
But the US, German, and Japanese economies have yet to contract by two consecutive quarters. A correction in the stock market cannot be confused and conflated with the global financial crisis of 2008
In that global financial crisis, which was triggered by a housing boom in the US, 90 percent of which brought on sheer debts, not true disposable income, the US economy petered off to create a large bottom. The huge amount of collateral debts and swaps between various banks made the economic recession all but inevitable
But one must remember that through financial infusion like Quantitative Economic Easing of I, II and III, more money was released by the central banks all over the world to prevent a credit crunch, a feat helped by the then Prime Minister Gordon Brown of UK, subsequently US President Barack Obama, who both urged all the central banks in G20 and more to loosen their monetary policy
Knowing that if they didn't, the world would be hit by the Great Global Depression not seen since 1920, the financial authorities of the various countries willingly complied
Foroohar is right to claim that the strong growth in the US is due to such policies. But she has also neglected another key dimension that led to the growth of the US economy: digitisation. Jeremiah Ouyang has christened what is happening in the DNA of the global economy as a "honeycomb" economy where all things left dormant can be used and shared, often through an app
A tractor of the municipal council that is not being used as yet, for example, can be transferred to another location that needs it to undertake the necessary earthwork
In fact, even if student loans in US pose a major threat, as close to US$3.5 trillion student debts remain unpaid, the future of education can be guaranteed by the likes of Coursera, edX.org and Udacity. Each of these online portals can shave the fees of the prospective students to the tune of 80-90 percent, period. In other words, much as the US economy may be facing some headwinds, there are no certainties that the 2007 great global recession will repeat
Even if it does, the Japanese economy is not doing all that bad either. Its government pension fund is at US$13 trillion; while its private pension fund is at a healthy 10 percent of the gross total of the former. Either way, Japan has a credit line of some US$14 trillion, with a lending interest rate that hovers between 0.65 percent to one percent
What is more worrisome, however, is global politics. India has gone ahead to seize Jammu and Kashmir. China remains unrelenting in its claim that it is not locking up its own Hui Muslims and Uyghur ethnic groups, many of whom profess Islam as their article of faith
The South China Sea has become a territorially contiguous area of the Indian Ocean. The major powers are making a beeline to conducting their freedom of navigation in South China Sea
In the Persian Gulf, Tehran seems to be spoiling for a fight to force the US and Europe to the negotiating table, since the former cancelled the Joint Comprehensive Point of Agreement (JCPOA) in its entirety
To the degree geopolitics is more unstable than global economics, which it is, the structural faultlines and fissures are bound to be here first, before there is any global economic recession. Malaysia needs to pull up its sleeves too. - Mkini

Artikel ini hanyalah simpanan cache dari url asal penulis yang berkebarangkalian sudah terlalu lama atau sudah dibuang :

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MalaysiansMustKnowTheTruth/~3/V0H-xh77JPI/is-repeat-of-2008-global-economic.html

Kempen Promosi dan Iklan
Kami memerlukan jasa baik anda untuk menyokong kempen pengiklanan dalam website kami. Serba sedikit anda telah membantu kami untuk mengekalkan servis percuma aggregating ini kepada semua.

Anda juga boleh memberikan sumbangan anda kepada kami dengan menghubungi kami di sini
Azmin Pledges Vigilance Against Economic Headwinds

Azmin Pledges Vigilance Against Economic Headwinds

papar berkaitan - pada 20/8/2019 - jumlah : 185 hits
Economic Affairs Minister Mohamed Azmin Ali KUALA LUMPUR Malaysia will continue to be vigilant despite stronger growth in the gross domestic product in the second quarter this year said Economic Affairs Minister Mohamed Azmin Ali Speaking a...
Trump Bows To Economic Fears In Move To Delay China Tariffs

Trump Bows To Economic Fears In Move To Delay China Tariffs

papar berkaitan - pada 16/8/2019 - jumlah : 146 hits
President Donald Trump bowed to pressure from U S businesses and concerns over the economic fallout of his trade war with China delaying the imposition of new tariffs on a wide variety of consumer products including toys and laptops until D...
Bebc Inks Mou With Palawan Economic Business Council

Bebc Inks Mou With Palawan Economic Business Council

papar berkaitan - pada 22/8/2019 - jumlah : 154 hits
Azhar and Cipriano Barroma chairman Emeritus of PEDCO and country director BEBC Palawan signing the memorandum of understanding documents in Palawan last week Bernama photo LABUAN BIMP EAGA Business Council Labuan
30 Startup Terpilih Untuk Magic Global Accelerator Programme 2019

30 Startup Terpilih Untuk Magic Global Accelerator Programme 2019

papar berkaitan - pada 10/8/2019 - jumlah : 342 hits
Hari ini Malaysian Global Innovation Creativity Centre secara rasminya telah melancarkan program Global Accelerator Programme untuk kumpulan ketiga yang terdiri daripada 30 startup daripada 9 buah negara termasuklah Malaysia Rusia Myanmar I...
Hadapi Gejolak Ekonomi Global Ojk Bakal Perkuat Sektor Unggulan

Hadapi Gejolak Ekonomi Global Ojk Bakal Perkuat Sektor Unggulan

papar berkaitan - pada 12/8/2019 - jumlah : 207 hits
Ketua Dewan Komisioner Otoritas Jasa Keuangan Wimboh Santoso mengatakan meski perekonomian Indonesia masih menunjukkan kinerja positif namun masih banyak tantangan yang akan dihadapi salah satunya dari faktor eksternal seperti perang dagang...
Tahun Depan Jakarta Akan Jadi Tuan Rumah Ajang World Economic Forum

Tahun Depan Jakarta Akan Jadi Tuan Rumah Ajang World Economic Forum

papar berkaitan - pada 15/8/2019 - jumlah : 194 hits
Bambang menjelaskan WEF menanggapi positif terkait tema tersebut Dalam agenda pertemuan nanti menurut dia terdapat indikator terkait indeks daya saing dunia Salah satunya yaitu sumber daya manusia
Hong Kong Leader Rules Out Concessions Warns Of Economic Downturn

Hong Kong Leader Rules Out Concessions Warns Of Economic Downturn

papar berkaitan - pada 10/8/2019 - jumlah : 144 hits
Carrie Lam HONG KONG Hong Kong 8217 s leader Carrie Lam warned Friday that two months of pro democracy demonstrations were causing economic chaos in the city but ruled out making concessions to 8220 silence the violent protesters 8221 The e
Crisis On Infinite Earths Bakal Menampil Black Lightning Bruce Wayne

Crisis On Infinite Earths Bakal Menampil Black Lightning Bruce Wayne

papar berkaitan - pada 6/8/2019 - jumlah : 172 hits
Siri CW crossover Crisis On Infinite Earth bakal menampilkan dua lagi karakter iaitu Black Lightning dan Bruce Wayne Ini merupakan crossover pertama buat karakter Black Lightning manakala Kevin Conroy akan membuat penampilan istimewa sebaga...
Dap Facing Its Worst Crisis Since Ge14

Dap Facing Its Worst Crisis Since Ge14

papar berkaitan - pada 13/8/2019 - jumlah : 209 hits
MP SPEAKS On July 25 Sinchew Daily front paged the news that next year s Standard 4 syllabus will contain six pages of introduction to what the Jawi script is all about With that the DAP came to face its worst crisis since Pakatan Harapan c...
Ph Must Safeguard Its Voter Base To Land Second Term For Anwar Says Analyst

Tetaplah Beriadah Di Bulan Ramadan

Honor Pad 9 Tablet Terbaik Untuk Berhibur Dan Kerja Mula Dijual Seluruh Negara Pada 28 Mac

Perumahan Izara Bayu Sutera Kediaman Idaman Tepi Tasik Dengan Ciri Smart Home

Sesi Tukar Duit Raya Di Maybank

Lirik Lagu Raya Mana Nabila Razali

8 Resepi Air Balang Viral Di Bazar Ramadhan

Diet If Yang Berkesan Menurut Pakar



Koleksi 15 Lagu Hari Raya Terbaru Yang Meriahkan Aidilfitri 2024 Bakal Evergreen Bak Lagu Lama

6 Pantang Larang Penting Kalau Nak Selamat di Sekolah Asrama

Info Dan Sinopsis Filem 19 Puasa Playboys Of Plastik Hitam Astro First

Casimir Zeglen Paderi Yang Mencipta Jaket Kalis Peluru

Biodata Mohammad Rifdean Masdor Atlet Muay Thai Malaysia Yang Gegarkan One Championship Seangkatan Johan Ghazali Jojo


Ziana Zain Duta Rasmi Csa Academy

15 Easter Garland Designs To String Along The Spring Festivities

Hallway Wall Art Mockup For A Sophisticated Look

Do You Know About Kuda Kepang Dance

Cukai Perkhidmatan 8 Hanya Ke Atas Golongan Berkemampuan

300 Extra Padu Registration Counters Opened