Iran President S Plane Lands In Oman Along With Three More

---

This morning there was some hoohaa over the appointment of the top cop. Then the hoohaa was dismissed as fake news. A local newspaper had apparently screwed up the guy's bio.
My friend Sam the CEO said there is no point discussing local news anymore. Its full of crap anyway and then Goebbels and gang may come after you for spreading fake news and such. I agree so I will just ignore the local news.
Over in Iran things are happening. Steve Witkoff the American special envoy for the Middle East has been in close contact with the Iranians over the past week. Latest news says Witkoff has spoken directly with Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi over the phone. 
This morning (or yesterday) three Iranian government planes including the Iranian presidential plane (their Air Force 1) landed at Muscat in Oman. Here is a 4 minute video: 

 



So who or what was on those planes? The Iranian president Pezeshkian is an ethnic Turk. There are over 15 million ethnic Turks out of Iran's 100 million population. They live in the south Azerbaijan district (province) of Iran. Across the border from the Republic of Azerbaijan. The Azeris are ethnic Turks who speak a Turkic language. Turkey (or Turkiyeyeye) has eyes on someday incorporating these 15 million Iranian Turks back into Turkiyeyeye.  
Oh Oh you're in trouble. 
Something's come along and burst your bubble.Will the Americans get involved in bombing Iran? It has already been NINE DAYS since the Israeli strikes began. The third US aircraft carrier task force led by the carrier USS Gerald Ford has sailed into the eastern Mediterranean. The other two carrier groups are in the Indian Ocean close to Iran. The task force includes Ticonderoga class cruisers (really old, from 1970s) but which carry up to 170 anti aircraft missiles with the capability to shoot down ballistic missiles as well. They may assist Israel shoot down ballistic missiles.
The Iranians are believed to have had about 2,000 ballistic missiles in their stockpiles. Half or possibly more have been either fired off or destroyed by the Israeli strikes. They have less than 1,000 ballistic missiles left. Also more than half of the mobile launchers (truck based) for the missiles have also been destroyed. Hence the last two or three days, the Iranians are firing less than 30 ballistic missiles per day.  They have no way of replenishing their missile stocks. If the hostilities continue for a few more days then all their ballistic missiles would have been used up or destroyed. Once that happens it is real game over because Iran has absolutely no other weapons to strike Israel. 
The Iranian airforce has been practically destroyed - almost all of it on the ground. Hence news reports indicate that the Iranians are negotiating for peace. Mr Trump has said again that Iran should accept a deal.
But it would seem that the terms of any deal are quite tough. Unconditional surrender is one of them - as has been repeated many times by Donald Trump. Getting rid of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is likely another condition. Recall my earlier post about Khamenei going off to Russia. Well we dont know what will or will not happen. But most certainly regime change is part of the deal.  Getting rid of their nuclear program and their ballistic missile capability are a given. They have to do it.
I think the sticking points are the arrival of a "caretaker" government - possibly led by that Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.  There must be no resistance if that is going to happen. Hence that unconditional surrender condition.
But what if they agree to an unconditional surrender and then start shooting at the Crown Prince anyway? Who is going to "enforce" the unconditional surrender?  US boots on the ground? No way. 
The Straits of Hormuz are still open. If they wanted to close it, it should have happened by now. But it has not. Oil prices should come down again. 
The Israelis were talking about a two week campaign. Or 20 days max. Thats about a week and a half left.  
Oh Oh you're in trouble. 
Something's come along and burst your bubble.
 


The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.
By Syed Akbar Ali 

---