India Pakistan Tensions Rising Again

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The following is from the Soufan Center.

APPROACHING A DANGEROUS PRECIPICE IN SOUTH ASIA
* Feb  18, Pakistan militants killed four Indian soldiers in Kashmir  just days after 40 Indian soldiers were killed in suicide bombing
* suicide bombing worst in decades derailed relations between India / Pak India Pak recalled respective ambassadors  significant development
India accused Pakistan of direct complicity in attackIndia claimed 'incontrovertible evidence’ Pakistan directly involvedimplying Pak support of JeM, terrorist organizationModi stated, ‘Pakistan will not be allowed to destabilize us’ vowed military response - unclear exactly what type
* Modi preparing for May elections, difficult position, could provoke response* Pakistan’s support / sponsorship of terrorists challenges regional stability
India Pak intense conflicts in 1947, 1965, 1971, 1999
bomb manufactured ‘in house’ by local militantssophistication of bomb presents serious challenge Indian forces raids to locate terrorists during one raid 4 Indian soldiers killed 
U.S. steadily moves further from Pakistan and closer to IndiaSaudi Arabia, prominent supporter of Islamabad
Pakistan views militants as a form of ‘strategic depth’ strategy that Pak military view as vital to imminent threat - India
My comments :  The cross border attacks from Pakistan into India do not seem to end.In 2008 Pakistani militants attacked the Taj Hotel in Mumbai. Over 170 people were killed.In 2016 Pakistani militants crossed the border into India and killed 19 Indian soldiers in Uri, Kashmir.Also in January 2016 Pakistani militants crossed the border and attacked an Indian airforce station in Pathankot, killing six Indian soldiers.On 14th February 2019 Pakistani militants crossed the border and attacked a military convoy in Pulwama, killing 40 Police personnel and four other soldiers.
This latest attacks were carried out by the JeM or Jaish e Muhammad, an extremist terror group that has been outlawed in Pakistan. However their leader Masood Azhar is still a free man. Many suspect that outfits like the JeM receive covert support from the Pakistani ISI. 
Pakistan also said they would help the US look for Osama bin Laden. They said they did not know where Osama bin Laden was. Their president Pervez Musharraf even declared Osama was dead - of kidney failure. 
Well Osama was alive and well living inside Pakistan for about seven years. Later  the US shot and killed Osama in Abbotabad, less than a mile from the famous Pakistan  Military Academy (Kakul) which has almost 4,000 instructors and lecturers alone.  So it is quite difficult to believe what the Pakistanis say.
The Indians cannot mount another retaliatory 'surgical strike'.  The Pakistanis will be waiting.
There is another option. India is now led by the more hawkish BJP government.  And PM Modi has appointed an old spy master and super hawk Ajit Kumar Doval as his NSA or National Security Adviser.
Referring to the 2008 attack against the Taj Hotel in Mumbai,  Ajit Kumar Doval issued a threat to Pakistan :   “Pakistan’s vulnerabilities are many times higher than us.  You  do one more Mumbai, you lose Balochistan.”
Here Ajit Doval was referring to Pakistan's own internal troubles like the insurgency and independence movement in Balochistan, worse problems in the Pushtun areas of the FATA, some problems in Sindh, homegrown terrorist movements like the Pakistani Taliban etc.  Plus Pakistan also has problems with Afghanistan and Iran - enough to cause shooting across the Afghan and Iranian borders. 
So Pakistan has many problems. 
Since a full scale war is not an option for India and military retaliation is also difficult (who would they strike at?) they may 'destabilize' Balochistan or fuel the insurgency in Balochistan to keep the Pakistani military more occupied. 
Here is the problem : these cross border attacks from Pakistan into India will not stop.
So there is going to be retaliation from the Indians. Not good for Pakistan. Posted by Syed Akbar Ali 

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