Explainer What Biden S 11th Hour Withdrawal Means For Us Presidential Election And Its Impact On South East Asia

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In announcing his withdrawal, Biden also publicly endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris as his nominee from his Democratic Party for the presidential election, which takes place just about three months from now. — Reuters picSINGAPORE, July 23 — United States President Joe Biden on Sunday (July 21) announced that he would not seek a re-election after all, a withdrawal from a presidential campaign that was so late into the game that some experts called it “unprecedented” in at least the last half a century.
In announcing his withdrawal, Biden also publicly endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris as his nominee from his Democratic Party for the presidential election, which takes place just about three months from now.
His backing out as the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee for the election came at a time when pressure from within his party to step down grew louder in recent weeks, while poll numbers indicated a diminishing chance of him defeating Republican Donald Trump.
A number of Democrats have since publicly thrown their support behind Harris. However, some prominent ones such as former president Barack Obama and former speaker Nancy Pelosi, have remained silent.
TODAY takes a closer look at what this latest development would mean for the US presidential election in November, and its possible impact on Singapore and the region.
What next for the US election
Steven Okun, an analyst of American politics, noted that the last time the US “came closest to this” last-minute pull-out from the presidential race was in 1968.
In March that year, Lyndon Johnson, the incumbent president and early front-runner for Democratic Party’s nomination, had announced that he would not seek re-election.
During its August convention that year, the party picked incumbent vice-president Hubert Humphrey to run for president in the November election. He was defeated by Republican Richard Nixon.
Fast forward to this year, about 3,900 Democrats have pledged to support Biden.
Okun, who is chief executive officer of Singapore-based public affairs consultancy Apac Advisors, said: “Even though Biden has endorsed Vice-President Harris, he cannot require those delegates to vote for her like they had to vote for him.
“So there has to be some process leading up to or at the convention for those delegates to vote for who they want to be the nominee.”
American daily Washington Post reported that the Democrats’ convention next month could be the occasion when they officially pick the nominee and a vice-presidential nominee, though the party could also do it earlier in a virtual roll call.
Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said: “There are other ambitious Democrats eager to pounce on the chance of a lifetime aiming at the presidency, including a number of governors.”
British media outlet The Guardian, however, reported that a number of prominent figures who might have been expected to challenge Harris, including governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, have indicated that they will not be contesting.
The experts who spoke to TODAY said that it is more likely that the party would rally behind Harris at this late stage of the presidential race.
Mustafa Izzuddin, senior international affairs analyst at consultancy firm Solaris Strategies Singapore, said that despite any dissension within the Democratic Party ranks, the desire to stop a Trump re-election would “culminate in them closing ranks”.
“Time is running out for the Democratic Party. The longer it tries to get its act together in deciding on the Democratic nominee, the slimmer its chances are going to be in defeating Donald Trump.”
On this basis, he said that it is more likely that Democrats will put forward their choice nominees ahead of the August convention.
How would Harris differ from Biden?
If Harris eventually gets picked as the Democratic presidential candidate, the experts generally do not expect much deviation from Biden’s campaign, though there has been chatter on how closely she would align with him on particular domestic issues.
An article from Politico website noted that Harris has a record of taking bolder stances than Biden on key issues such as abortion rights, climate change and student debt relief.
“If she wins... she may focus on particular things more so than the current president does, but directionally, certainly, they'll be aligned,” Okun said.
Where the difference is most clear, however, is what Harris can bring to the table for the Democrats that Biden could not.
Dr Mustafa pointed out that Harris is a woman who holds a “double minority” card — she is of South Asian and Black descent — which puts her at an advantage to connect with these communities compared to Biden.
The experts pointed out that the 59-year-old also appears healthier than Biden, 81, putting to rest concerns over his health that have detracted from policy debates.
“The focus is now more on the substantive policy differences between the Democrats and the Republicans. And that's the debate that Democrats want to have,” Okun said.
What this could mean for Singapore and the region
The analysts largely agreed that a Trump 2.0 administration would greatly differ from a Democratic one in terms of how the US engages the global community.
Where Biden and the Democrats are more open to multilateral cooperation, Trump takes a more “transactional” view of how he engages other nations, Dr Mustafa and Dr Oh said.
Where the experts could not agree on, however, was how Biden’s withdrawal will affect the outcome of the presidential election.
“Prior to President Biden's withdrawing from the race, it was certainly likely that Donald Trump would have won in 2024,” Okun said.
With Biden now out and Harris potentially in the race, the outcome in November “is too close to call... (and) back to being a toss-up”.
This could mean that there is a chance of seeing a Democratic administration more favourable to multilateral cooperation as opposed to a Trump 2.0 “America-first bilateral approach”, he added.
On the other hand, Oh and Mustafa said that Trump may still continue to be the frontrunner.
Mustafa said that aside from the next president's health as a campaign issue, the Republicans can always turn other matters into political fodder.
“For example, they could sort of denigrate her and say that she’s not the first choice of the (Democratic Party), that she came in just because Biden could not run.”
In that regard, this region may well see a US under Trump put less priority in cooperating or engaging Southeast Asian countries on various issues.
“I don’t think he’s going to completely disengage from the region (if he comes into power), but he will not engage it in a way that perhaps the Democratic administration would.” — TODAY

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